Thanks to Bill Belichick’s decision to punt from the Packers 46-yard line rather than go for it on 4th-and-5 in OT, I remained alive in my Survivor Pool. I already have one elimination from the Broncos Week 1, so I can’t afford any additional close calls.

Another week alive. Let’s get to the picks.

Buccaneers over Falcons

Can Tom Brady lose three consecutive games? Most likely not, so that is why the Bucs defeating the Falcons at Raymond James Stadium is one of the top picks for this week. Given that the Bucs lost to the Packers and Chiefs the past two weekends, it is understandable that many may be hesitant to side with Tampa Bay, even with Brady at the helm. Let’s remember in Week 3 against the Packers, the Bucs were missing Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones, leaving their receiver corps empty. This past weekend, the Bucs also dealt with the devastating effect of Hurricane Ian ravaging Florida. You can bet Tampa will be more focused this weekend than ever and take it out on an overachieving Falcons squad. Atlanta is a nice story so far this season, going an impeccable 4-0 against the spread, but luckily Survivor Pools are straight-up wins. Go with Tampa.

Bills over Steelers

Despite falling behind, the Bills roared back in the torrential downpour against the Ravens as Tyler Bass kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired. It’s safe to say that the loss to the Dolphins in Week 3 was an anomaly, especially since the Bills were playing on a short week and dealt with a slew of injuries to key starters. Now, Buffalo will take on a Steelers squad that was forced to make a QB change earlier than expected.

In the first half of Sunday’s contest against the Jets, the Steelers opted to bench Mitch Trubisky and usher in a new era under first-round pick Kenny Pickett. While Pickett performed well in his debut, he still threw two interceptions and allowed the Jets to score 14 unanswered points in the loss. It won’t be any easier for Pickett this weekend to face the league’s top-ranked defense this weekend. Bills are a safe pick here.

Chiefs over Raiders

The Raiders avoided being the only 0-4 team in the league on Sunday by defeating the Broncos in Vegas. However, while the Raiders were able to take advantage of a struggling Denver offense, the opposite will be the case this weekend against the Chiefs. Kansas City is fresh off a convincing victory against the Bucs, posting 41 points against one of the best defenses in the league. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the Chiefs offense should have no trouble racking up points in this matchup on Monday Night football. Go with the Chiefs.

Vikings over Bears

Chicago may have two wins this season, but neither was impressive. The Bears took advantage of a 49ers squad led by Trey Lance in a monsoon in Week 1 and defeated Davis Mills and the Texans thanks to a late interception in Week 3. We saw once again their offensive woes opposing the Giants on Sunday when all the Bears could account for was four field goals, despite the Giants missing half of their defensive starters. Second-year QB Justin Fields continues to regress and show no signs of improvement. That bodes well for a 3-1 Vikings squad fresh off a win against the Saints in London. Expect Kirk Cousins to connect with Justin Jefferson on another highlight reel of a day and for the Vikings to pound the ball with the run game the same way Saquon Barkley ran all over Chicago on Sunday. The Vikings are a good pick here. 

Dolphins over Jets

Even without Tua, the Dolphins should be able to defeat the Jets on Sunday. Teddy Bridgewater is a solid backup and can lead a team to a victory. Miami still possesses one of the best receiving tandems in the NFL behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. That combination will be challenging for the Jets secondary to cover, as we witnessed in their loss in Week 3 to the Bengals. With no timetable on Tua’s return this season, this may be one of the few weeks to safely back the Dolphins. Take advantage of the matchup.