NFL Week 15 – Top 5 PIcks ATS

12 / 16 / 2022 By Ally Mielnicki

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We were a perfect 5-for-5 in our best bets last week! That brings our season record to 36-24! Let’s continue our hot streak.

(Editor’s note: UPDATE! Breaking news confirms Jets QB Mike White will not start Sunday against the Lions. This publication was made before the announcement. However, we are sticking with our pick of the Lions over the Jets.)

Titans +3 over Chargers

The Chargers had one of their best games last Sunday night against the Dolphins, so inconsistency will strike negatively again. That’s been my strategy for LA since their San Diego days.

While the Chargers are back to full strength in their receiving corps with the return of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, the same cannot be said for their defense which still ranks as one of the worst in the game. The Titans should be able to capitalize on the Chargers’ defensive woes, especially since LA allows the 5th-most points per game in the NFL. Expect Tennessee to pound the ball behind top RB Derrick Henry and dominate the time of possession. If QB Ryan Tannehill can help maintain long drives and keep the ball out of the hands of Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ offense, then the Titans should be able to keep it close. In fact, I’m taking the Moneyline and calling the upset.

The Titans are desperate, coming off two consecutive losses, primarily last week to the Jaguars, who are breathing down their back in the AFC South. I trust Mike Vrabel to have his team ready. The Titans pull off the upset.

Colts +4 over Vikings

Many were curious as to why the Detroit Lions were favored over the Vikings last week. If you read this column frequently, you know I believe Minnesota is far less talented than its record indicates. The Lions winning and covering against the Vikings were one of my best bets in Week 14, so it should come as no surprise I’m backing the Colts to at least cover against the Vikings on Sunday.

Despite the Colts’ offensive woes, they still boast a top defensive unit in the league, ranking 8th in the least amount of yards allowed per game. We’ve seen what the Vikings do against a stellar defensive squad. Their losses to the Eagles and Cowboys signify how they struggle against stout defenses. Expect Indy to apply plenty of pressure to Kirk Cousins and stuff Dalvin Cook and the run game.

Matt Ryan may be worrisome on offense, but Jonathan Taylor should be fresh coming off the bye and be able to carry the team on the ground. Fortunately for Ryan, the Vikings own one of the worst secondaries in the conference, so he has a favorable matchup with Michael Pittman, Paris Campbell, and Alec Pierce in his arsenal. I won’t go so far as to predict an upset, but I will gladly take Indy with the points.

Browns -3 over Ravens

It appears that Tyler Huntley will get the nod again for the Ravens this weekend, with Lamar Jackson still injured. This bodes well for the division rival Browns, who should be able to take advantage of a Ravens squad whose offensive prowess takes a hit without Jackson under center. While Huntley is serviceable as a backup, he still struggles to post points on the scoreboard.

The Browns, too, have been a disappointment this season, especially in the two games since controversial QB DeShaun Watson’s return. However, after a miserable outing in his first game back, Watson improved in Week 14 against the Bengals. With another week of practice under his belt, he should continue progressing week by week. 

I like the Browns to cover here at home despite their struggles as of late. The Ravens were fortunate to win against the Steelers last weekend once Kenny Pickett went down and was replaced by Mitch Trubisky. As a result, Trubisky was responsible for three INTs that ultimately cost the Steelers the game. Watson is a far superior QB despite missing the past two seasons. The Browns will win and cover.

Lions +1.5 over Jets

I will actually be at this game on Sunday, and I am riding high with the Lions. It’s understandable that Detroit enters this contest as underdogs. For one, the Jets own one of the top defensive squads in the game and have the capacity to limit the Lions’ high-octane offense. However, many underestimate Detroit’s defense, which has been improving every week. No. 2 overall pick Aiden Hutchinson is establishing himself as a bonafide star in this league and should be able to apply pressure on Jets QB Mike White and add a sack or two to his stat sheet.

For New York they have taken a dip the past few weeks with two consecutive losses after their hot start. White had an impressive outing in his first start of the season against the Bears but has struggled in his last two games. White also is dealing with an injury that knocked him out for a series in last week’s loss to the Bills, so we do not know if he will be 100 percent.

Either way, I’m sticking with the Lions. I said on my podcast on Monday that Detroit will run the table and make the playoffs. I’m standing by that prediction. The Lions pull off the upset. 

Packers -7 over Rams

Many may believe this to be a high number between two underperforming squads, but I don’t think it’s high enough. The Rams may have succeeded in their miraculous comeback last Thursday night against the Raiders, but in the confines of Lambeau Field, they won’t be so lucky. Baker Mayfield had a nice fourth quarter in his Rams debut, but this is still a QB that has one of the worst QBRs in the league and has career lows in every category.

The Packers mathematically are still competing for a playoff position, and that means Aaron Rodgers will still show up and play. The offense has played better as of late with the emergence of WR Christian Watson, so they should be able to take advantage of a depleted Rams defense that will be without star Aaron Donald.

I’d be surprised if the Rams scored more than 10 points in this contest. The Packers win and cover. 

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