Betting on NBA Playoff games or series this year?

Here are our top tips to take into account when betting on the NBA this postseason!

Bet the Underdog before the series starts 

If you like an underdog to win a series, take action before the series begins. Let’s say you like Team B to upset Team A in the series. Before Game 1, the odds list Team B as +250 ‘dogs to win the series while Team A is listed at -175. This may be the best value you will find with Team B, especially if they win Game 1. If that were to happen, Team B’s odds would decrease significantly, given they now own a 1-0 lead in the series. Sure, if they lose Game 1, their odds of winning the series may rocket from +250 to +350, increasing the value. However, you also risk Team B winning Game 1 and losing value. 

It is better to hop on the Underdog before the series begins if they are the higher seed. If the teams split the first two series games, the home-court advantage will shift to the lower seed in Games 3 & 4. Jump on the Underdog early if you like the upset.

Bet on home teams in Game 3 facing a 0-2 deficit

In a 7-game series, the lower-seeded team can host the first two matchups at home. However, in Games 3 & 4, the series moves to the higher seed’s court. Once home-court advantage shifts, it’s always a great strategy to wager on the higher-seeded team in Game 3 if they face a 0-2 deficit. Teams tend to play much better at home than on the road, with a packed arena of fans cheering in their favor. There is also extra motivation since no team wants to find themselves in an 0-3 deficit. In the history of the NBA, no team has rallied from being down 0-3 in a series to ultimately come back and win the next 4 games. Take a chance with the higher-seeded team in Game 3, especially if they find themselves underdogs, at home. That’s plus money you don’t want to miss.

Look for value with a series favorite if they lose Game 1

In most cases, especially in the first round of the postseason, lower-seeded teams tend to be heavy favorites entering Game 1. If a team’s odds is -300 to win the series, you would only win a net value of $30 on a $100 bet. However, let’s say the favorite drops the first game in the series and falls to an 0-1 deficit. Those odds may decrease to as much as -250 or -200 to win the series, providing more favorable value for bettors. Now, if the favorite wins Game 1, the odds of winning the series may increase to -400 or higher, losing even more value. Still, it is more advantageous to wait and see if the favorite drops Game 1 in the series if you want to get better value. Heavy favorites tend to fall flat in Game 1 from time to time (i.e., the Grizzlies falling to the T-Wolves in Game 1 this past Saturday), providing ample opportunity to grab the best value available before they retake the series lead.

Bet against teams coming off a 7-game series

More often than not, winners of a playoff series that goes the distance only receive one or two days off before embarking on their next series. An entire 7-game series can be grueling and take its toll on players, mainly if they use one of their off days as a travel day. Whatever the case, it is best to fade teams who are coming off a 7-game series in Game 1. Also, take into account their opponent in the following series. 

Let’s say Team A has just completed a long, hard-fought Game 7 and has only two days of rest before traveling across the country to face Team B. On the other side, Team B swept its series and had the luxury of a week-long break in between. Chances are Team A may still be gassed in Game 1 while Team B is fully rested. Go with the team with fresh legs in this one. 

Be mindful of teams with a long layoff

Conversely, teams with long layoffs may lose their momentum and fall flat in Game 1s due to rust. While not always the case, it is crucial to consider the time in between series for the two teams. The debate surrounding momentum has gone both ways over the years on whether rest is more beneficial than staying in rhythm. If you believe a team gains more from the extra rest, especially if a team is dealing with multiple injuries to their players, then bet on the team with the more extended layoff. However, if you feel a team running on momentum with limited rest has the edge, then wager on the hot team. Always trust your gut instead of what others think.