Last season I wrote my Top 10 Tips for Betting on the NFL.

To summarize, they were:

• Beware, double-digit underdogs,

• Check the weather forecast

• Beware of Monday night football-winning teams the following week

• Pay attention to the injury reports

• Watch out for “trap” games

• Take into account teams playing in their “Super Bowl”

• Don’t shy away from midseason QB debuts

• Back interim head coaches after a midseason firing

• Back teams coming off an embarrassing loss

• Stay away from teams coming off a heartbreaking loss

I decided to update this list by adding five more tips as we approach the NFL season kickoff next week. As someone who has been betting on the NFL for over a decade and participated in pick ’em pools and confidence pools since I was a child, I’ve picked up a few great strategies. They work for me personally more times than not, so I am sharing them below.

• Bet against west coast teams traveling east

The time difference can affect their mentality when a west coast team has to travel to the east coast for a Sunday matchup. Not only does the west coast team lose 3 hours, but if they played a 1 pm PT game the previous weekend, there is less recovery time. Think about it. If the east coast team plays at 1 pm ET on a Sunday, the game is over by 4 pm ET. However, west coast teams typically don’t kick off until 4 pm ET for their home games and end between 7 pm – 8 pm ET. Add the travel time, the jet lag, and the effect the time of day could have on their bodies, which could prove to be disadvantageous. In betting, it’s all about getting any edge you can find. This is one of them.

• Fade dome or warm weather teams playing in the cold

Teams like the Falcons, Vikings, Texans, Colts, and Saints benefit from playing in a dome and never dealing with the elements when hosting games at home. It could be snowing in Minneapolis, raining in New Orleans, or windy and Indy, but the weather would not affect the game. That’s why when these teams travel to cities with brutal playing conditions, it may be best to fade them. 

Imagine if the Saints must travel to Green Bay in late December and play in single-digit temperatures or if the Texans visited Buffalo, where the forecast called for a foot of snow. Dome teams are not used to playing in poor weather conditions, nor for that matter, are warm weather teams. It’s always hot in Glendale, Arizona, for the Cardinals, who may struggle playing in Seattle in the cold rain. Likewise, for the Rams or Chargers, should they travel to Denver. Like my previous tip, always check the weather. Do so, especially when a dome or warm weather team will have to play in anything but 75 degrees and sunny.

• Go heavy on underdogs opening weekend

The first weekend of the NFL season is always the toughest to handicap and bet. Most bettors base their wagers on a team’s performance the previous season since preseason games carry little weight. In that case, many bettors fall victim to backing mostly favorites in Week 1. That’s not to say a favorite will not win – but they may not cover. Last season, out of the 16 games on opening weekend, 12 underdogs covered the spread, with 9 of them pulling off outright upsets. Taking points on any given week is always advantageous since you start the game already winning, but Week 1 may be the most important. Sometimes, the best teams for the current season have yet to establish themselves, while the better teams from the previous year may not be as good. Just look at the Bengals and their success last season or the failure of the Seahawks. Who would have guessed the Bengals would have reached the Super Bowl while the Seahawks finish dead last in their division? Week 1, take underdogs.

• Take a look at home underdogs in divisional matchups

Even the worst teams in the league step it up when opposing division rivals – especially at home. Don’t think New York won’t show up to play just because the Bills are -10 point favorites against the home underdog Jets. There is always extra motivation when two teams that hate each other play against one another. Even if the home team is far inferior to the away squad, it never hurts to take the points. There tend to be upsets from time to time between division foes, and usually, it is the home team that manages to fuel off their fans and over-perform for the game. Again, when you take points, you automatically begin the game with an advantage. Take it.

• Lean Under on Thursday Night football

This one may seem like a no-brainer, but many bettors want to see a high-scoring affair on the only Thursday night game and side with the Over. However, when you consider that these two opponents must play on a short week with little rest and often insignificant practice time, then all of that is the perfect recipe for the Under to hit. Sure, it also depends on the matchup. For example, if the Bills and the Chargers were to square off on Thursday night, the Over may make more sense. Still, even superior teams tend to be lethargic following a grueling Sunday match. The Under could be the play in some cases.