Who: Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

Where: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH

When: Thursday, September 29th, 5:20 PM PT

Spread: Bengals -3.5

Total: 48.5 o/u

The 3-0 Miami Dolphins travel to Cincinnati to take on the defending AFC Champions in this week’s Thursday night football matchup. Entering the season, many experts pegged the Dolphins to be a sneaky pick to thrive this year en route to a postseason berth. So far, the Dolphins have exceeded expectations with their undefeated start, including impressive upset wins against the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. QB Tua Tagovailoa has taken remarkable strides this season, ranking 2nd in the league among passing yards and tied for 3rd in TDs. In addition, he has been aided by his highly talented receiving duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, who rank 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in receiving yards this season.

The Bengals also entered the year with lofty expectations since they were one quarter away from being named Super Bowl Champions. However, a sluggish start to the season has left many wondering if this team has regressed from last year. Still, after dropping their first two games, the Bengals came out dominant against the Jets last week and appeared to revert to the scoring machine they were in 2021.

Both of these squads possess high-octane offenses that hold power to score at will. Sportsbooks have taken notice as the total currently sits at 48.5. However, even though both teams have the ability to score at will, I am backing the Under tonight. It has been my strategy, and had it not been for a fluke ending in last week’s Browns-Steelers contest, the Under would be 3-0 on Thursday night games this season.

For the spread, I will side with the Bengals in this contest. The public has been pounding the Dolphins, which is not surprising given their hot start and back-to-back upsets. Still, the Dolphins were fortunate enough to oppose a Ravens; defense that was missing multiple starters to injury, primarily in the secondary. They also squared off against Buffalo, who played on a short week and was down several starters as well. 

I believe the Bengals are a superior team to the Dolphins despite the record. Teams fresh off a Super Bowl appearance often experience some sort of a hangover the following season, and it seems like the Bengals are starting to play in sync. Miami will likely be a dangerous opponent come playoffs, but the Bengals have the edge in the matchup. The Bengals win and cover.

Pick: Bengals -3.5

Under 48.5