It all comes down to this. TCU vs. Georgia. The winner takes home the championship.
Many are still in shock that TCU made it this far, and if you took them at the beginning of the season to win it all, you’d have a 200-1 ticket on your hands! Cinderella stories like these are what make the college football playoffs so great. The committee probably would have never selected this time to play in the finals, and they deserve to be here after upsetting Michigan as a 7.5 underdog. I would like to see the NCAA expand the playoffs to 8 teams sometime in the future, but that could be a topic for another article.
Georgia, on the other hand, was poised to be the champions from the very beginning. Not only are they defending their title from last season, but they’ve also gone undefeated the entire season. But is that streak due to come to an end? The sportsbooks are saying no! Georgia was favored during the beginning of the year with only +450 odds to win back-to-back titles. But all of that is irrelevant now, and these two teams will face each other in a tense matchup in the BCS Championship.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
TCU vs. Georgia -12
January 9th, 2023
4:40 Pacific Standard Time
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
ESPN
Spread Pick
The spread opened up at Georgia -13.5, but as of writing this, it’s dropped to -12. Many people think that’s too many points for the fierce Horned Frogs! The public is in a TCU betting frenzy right now, and even Mattress Mack dropped $1.5 million on the TCU Moneyline! But even without Mattress Mack’s bet, there is still three times as much money on TCU than Georgia. So there is a lot on the line here, and the books will be rooting for Georgia, as you can see.
If you read my previous article covering the Peach Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl, I picked TCU’s Moneyline, the +8, and Georgia’s -6. I expected Georgia to have less trouble than they did when covering that spread, and I give Ohio State a lot of credit for their performance. CJ Stroud will undoubtedly have a successful career in the NFL, and if their defense had played just a little better, they’d be in the Championship Game instead of Georgia.
On the other hand, Max Duggan outperformed my expectations against a stout Michigan Defense and came out of the Fiesta Bowl 51-45 winners. The TCU Quarterback put up two touchdowns in that game, but the x-factor in the running game showed up huge, rushing more yards than the passing game. Emari Demercado posted 150 rushing yards while filling in for Kendre Miller, the starting running back. Since Miller is still questionable now, you have to ask, “can he do it again against Georgia”?
I believe he will have a more challenging time doing what he did against the reigning National Champions, and Georgia’s defense will perform much better in this game. On the big stage in the Fiesta Bowl, Duggan also put up two interceptions. The Bulldogs have been on this stage before, they know what to expect, and their experience might give them a solid edge. They pride themselves on solid defense and will showcase their best formations they may have wanted to keep secret in the last two games. They gave up 71 points total during that two-game span, but in the previous seven regular season games, they only gave up a combined 82 points.
The SEC, in general, is a much more competitive conference than the Big ten, and we’ve seen Georgia go 3-1 against the spread in their last four matchups with Big 10 Conference teams. Max Duggan may prove this wrong, but at the very least, Georgia is fair against Big 10 opponents.
You might be thinking that TCU should be able to cover the spread at least, right? 12 is a ton of points, considering how well they played against Michigan, and they’ve been a profitable dog to bet on! Another interesting trend is how TCU performs as a double-digit underdog. Last season, they went 0-3 when the spread was ten or more. It’s also worth noting that the previous 4 BCS Championship games have ended in blowout fashion, with Georgia beating Alabama 33-18 in 2022, Alabama beating OSU 55-24, and so on. So the justification for the -12 seems more reasonable.
Another reason TCU beat Michigan was because of some poor decision-making by Michigan’s offense. The Horned Frogs capitalized on two pick-sixes which rarely happens in a game. Stetson Bennet, QB for the Bulldogs, will have ice in his veins as he takes the field and will feel confident playing on the big stage, just as he did last year. I expect him to be more poised in his decision-making than we saw out of Michigan last week.
Mattress Mack should have kept his money at home because not only will the Bulldogs win this outright, but they should also cover the -12 points. If you like TCU, take them in the first half, getting +7 points! Georgia wants to be the first team to repeat college titles for the first time in 20 years, and they’ll get that chance on Monday. Consider waiting closer to game time to lay the points. You can likely get it even lower at this rate. I’m taking the Dawgs -12
Total
Well, this is an easy one. Both teams put up massive, video game-like numbers in the Semifinals. This one has to go over, right?! Hold on there, buddy. Before throwing down millions of dollars like Mattress Mack, let’s think about it here. As I mentioned, those last two games for Georgia were flukes on defense, and they were going up against a top draft pick, CJ Stroud. It’s best to avoid recency bias from time to time, especially when both semifinal games were epic, massive blowout over-winners!
This is a new game, and TCU has yet to face a defense squad like Georgia this year. I’d be surprised if TCU got more than 20 points in this game and saw Max Duggan making some jittery mistakes in the Red Zone. Another interesting trend to look at is that when Georgia plays a team from the Big 10 conference, the under has hit 70% over the past matchups. It’s starting not to look like the over is a great pick. Anything is possible, of course, but my instinct is telling the under is the way to go.
Final score prediction
Georgia Bulldogs 35-17
