Who: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

When: Sunday, January 8th, 2023, 8:20 pm ET

Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

Moneyline: Packers -225, Lions +185

Spread: Packers -4.5

Total: 49 o/u

A four-game win streak has propelled the Packers from being dormant in the NFC playoff race to four quarters away from clinching a postseason berth. Of course, 4x-NFL MVP award winner Aaron Rodgers deserves a magnitude of the credit for the season’s turnaround. However, let’s also give just as much praise to the Packers defense, who have limited their previous four opponents to 20 points or less during the win streak. Overcoming elite offenses such as the Dolphins and division leaders such as the Vikings during the win streak is no small task. Thanks to their much improved and dynamic play, the Packers find themselves not only in control of their playoff destiny, but also a sneaky team come postseason.

On the contrary, the Lions need multiple scenarios to fall in their favor if they wish to secure the final Wild Card berth. First, they need the Seattle Seahawks to lose to the underwhelming Los Angeles Rams. Second, they will have to defeat the Packers in Green Bay, a city where they have struggled in recent years, in order to claim the 7th seed in the NFC. With their matchup versus the Packers unfairly flexed to Sunday night, there is a solid chance they will learn their season is ultimately over before kickoff. However, should the Seahawks falter, the Lions will have to rise up to the occasion and defeat their division foe – a task that is not so small.

In their first matchup in November, the Lions scored a big victory, winning 15-9 at home. Still, the Packers squad they opposed back then was a shade of the Green Bay team they have since become. While the Lions’ defense has also vastly improved, their offense has struggled at times outdoors on the road and against superior defensive squads. This matchup will seem like a lot to overcome as Vegas has pegged Green Bay as a 4.5-point favorite. 

This game is a tough one to handicap at the moment. Depending on the outcome of the Seahawks’ contest, there are two different versions of the Lions that can take the field Sunday. There’s no question the Packers will show up to play, but will the Lions be motivated should they learn they have already been eliminated?

If the Seahawks win, expect the spread to rise a point or more, considering the Lions may be deflated and fall flat knowing this is a meaningless game for them. In that case, I would jump on the Packers no matter the spread. However, should the Seahawks lose, I expect the Lions to bring their A-game and play their best game of the season. I still like the Packers to win, but in the event the Lions’ playoff hopes are still alive, I will take Detroit with the points.

In terms of the total, both defenses are playing much better than they have been all season, so I will lean under on a cold night in Green Bay. 

Whatever the case, keep an eye out for the Seahawks’ result before ultimately siding your bet. If you like the Packers no matter what, then take them before the spread rises.

Pick: Packers ML -225

Under 49