NFL Win Total Predictions – NFC East

07 / 26 / 2022 By Ally Mielnicki

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Full disclosure: I’ve been an avid NY Giants fan my entire life. However, when it comes to betting, I use my head and not my heart. That is one of the primary reasons I never bet for or against my team – it’s a personal superstition of mine. So when it comes to making predictions for this season in the NFC East, I doubt that the Giants will once again finish at the bottom of the division. However, I would love to be pleasantly surprised if they defy expectations and turn in a plus .500 season.

Yet looking at the rest of the NFC East, there is a ton to digest. The Cowboys enter the year as favorites to win the division. However, after their underwhelming performance in their Wild Card loss, there are more questions surrounding this team, mainly if Mike McCarthy is the right coach for the job. The Eagles, too, are receiving plenty of hype after acquiring WR A.J. Brown in the offseason, but there remains uncertainty on whether QB Jalen Hurts will regress in his 2nd full season of starting. And let’s not forget the Commanders who will be playing with a new name and a new QB (Carson Wentz).

The NFC East is always one for surprises. Let’s break down the win totals.

Dallas Cowboys

Win Totals Over/Under: 10 (-110/-110)

Prediction: Over

By default, the Cowboys are the favorites and should be the favorites after winning the division last season. However, this is a different Cowboys squad after trading WR Amari Cooper and letting go of OT La’el Collins and DE Randy Gregory. Dallas still owns one of the top offenses in the NFL, with Dak Prescott returning under center with RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, along with WRs CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and newly signed James Washington. Let’s not forget TE Dalton Schultz, who has improved every season and is one of Prescott’s go-to’s.

The defense, too, ranks near the top after finishing 2021 7th overall in points allowed. Thanks to rookie sensation LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs, who led the league in interceptions, the Cowboys’ defense was essential to their ability to shut down opposing offenses last season and give the offense plenty of chances to score.

Still, there’s no denying that the Cowboys have an alarmingly demanding schedule to begin the season. They open the year against Tom Brady and the Bucs and then must face the defending AFC champion Bengals in Week 2. It gets easier in Weeks 3 and 4 against the Giants and Commanders, but they must travel for back-to-back road games against the Rams and Eagles. Fortunately, a top-heavy schedule gets more manageable with non-conference opponents such as the Lions, Bears, Jaguars, and Texans. 

Considering the schedule and the expectations, I think 10 wins is the perfect number for the Cowboys, which is why I am tempted to predict a push. Dallas must also face the Colts, Packers, Vikings, and Titans, with 3 of those contests coming on the road. I believe they will win one of those 4 matchups but lose to the Bucs and Bengals in the first 2 weeks of the season. Still, they should net at least 10 wins, which I will lean towards the Over. 


NY Giants

Win Totals Over/Under: 7 (+105/-125)

Prediction: Under

I would rather be surprised than letdown, so I will lean Under with my Big Blue. Yes, the Giants have improved their offensive line, which has been the worst in the league for years, by drafting Evan Neal and signing Mark Glowinski and Jon Feliciano. However, this is a team plagued by injuries from year to year, so if the team has any chance of succeeding, they must remain consistently on the field. WR Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, and Kadarius Toney all missed significant time last season with ailments, as well as QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquon Barkley. 

On the defensive side, the Giants’ strength lies in their defensive line with Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence. While their pass rush has been weak, they bolstered their linebacking corps with rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux and will get Blake Martinez back from injury. Their secondary, though, is inexperienced and unproven as Big Blue parted ways with Logan Ryan, James Bradberry, and Jabrill Peppers in the offseason.

I am a huge fan of Head Coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Shoen, but this team is still rebuilding. All eyes will be on Jones as this is perhaps his last shot to prove he is a legitimate starter in the league. If Daboll can develop Jones the same way he worked wonders with Josh Allen in Buffalo, then the Giants have promise for the future. However, the key for Jones will be to cut down on turnovers and capitalize in the red zone – something the team has struggled with the past few seasons. My heart says Over, but my head says Under. 


Philadelphia Eagles

Win Totals Over/Under: 9.5 (-130/+110)

Prediction: Under

Don’t get me wrong. The Eagles’ offense is stacked. A year after drafting DeVonta Smith, the Eagles added one of the best receivers in the league by trading for former Titans wideout A.J. Brown to add to QB Jalen Hurts’ arsenal. Philly already owned the top run game in the NFL behind the combination of Smith and RBs Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell. Now, the addition of Browns provides the Eagles with a bonafide No. 1 option and alleviates the pressure from Smith.

Still, the question remains whether Hurts is the franchise QB the Eagles thought they were getting when they drafted him out of Oklahoma. There’s no doubt the young QB can use his legs to make plays, but it remains to be seen if he can complete the deep throws with the game on the line. We all witnessed how harshly Hurts struggled in January in the Wild Card playoff game against the Bucs. At times, he appeared lost and unable to get a read on open receivers downfield. As a result, the Eagles brought Brown in to provide veteran leadership to the team’s receiving corps and take the burden off of Smith, who set the record for most receptions by an Eagles rookie last season.

Fortunately, the Eagles have one of the easiest schedules in the league. However, high expectations have been set for a team that made the playoffs last season despite going 1-6 against postseason teams (their lone win was against the Cowboys in Week 18 when Dallas sat most of its starters). 

Bias aside, I don’t think the Eagles will live up to the hype. They are a sexy pick among experts to win the NFC East and pose a danger to other teams come playoffs, but this team could easily disappoint given the uncertainty surrounding Hurts’ development. With that said, I’m going with the Under as I think the Eagles will win 9 games at most. Bye, Eagles Bye.


Washington Commanders

Win Totals Over/Under: 8 (-110/-110)

Prediction: Under

On paper, the Commanders have the potential to be a sneaky pick to make the playoffs. QB Carson Wentz returns to the division where he played most of his career and inherits a Washington offense with a crafty receiver in Terry McLaurin, an underrated TE when healthy in Logan Thomas, and a solid RB in Antonio Gibson. 

Yet, Washington struggles on the defensive front, where the unit ranked in the bottom 10 last season. They did little in the offseason to improve the unit (though they will be getting Chase Young back, whose season was cut short due to injury). They also lost one of their top offensive linemen, Brandon Scherff, who left in free agency. 

If anything, the Commanders benefit from an incredibly easy schedule this season. They don’t have their bye until Week 14, but they open the year against Jacksonville and Detroit, which could be 2 wins right there. Yet, they must then play a brutal stretch that includes Philly, Dallas, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Minnesota, and Philly again before their bye. Wear and tear can easily affect this squad and rumors could surface questioning if Ron Rivera finds himself on the hot seat. 

I don’t think Wentz is much of an upgrade, given the amount they are paying him this season. We also have seen a downslide in his career as Indy was more than ready to part with the beleaguered QB after just one mediocre season. This one could go either way, but I will lean toward the Under. Commanders finish 7-10.


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