Here we finally are – Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season.

If you’re like me, you are all set with your fantasy lineups, confidence pools, and pick ’em leagues, but you may be hesitant about which team to select for your Survivor Pool.

Unlike the rest of the leagues where you can have off weeks, in a Survivor Pool, one loss and you are out – so choose your team wisely.

For Week 1, here are our top 5 picks to make:

Broncos over Seahawks

Russell Wilson wasted no time returning to face the team he played for all 9 of his seasons in the NFL. It may seem like a lopsided affair this time in a matchup that would have been an intriguing Monday night kickoff before the trade. While Denver’s acquisition of Wilson indicated its intentions to compete for a Super Bowl appearance, Seattle’s dealing of Wilson signaled the franchise is ready for a rebuild. Instead of drafting Wilson’s successor in the NFL Draft in April, Seattle opted to go with a combination of Geno Smith and Drew Lock at the QB position. Who could blame the Seahawks, especially with a weak QB class in this past draft.

It will be a bittersweet return for Wilson to the city with whom he won a Super Bowl, but there is no question he is now on a vast superior quad with the Broncos. Denver boasts an elite defense that will cause havoc on Smith and the offense, and the Broncos offensive line is a massive upgrade for Wilson. The latter should have plenty of time locating his top targets in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. Vegas has taken notice, too, with Denver sitting at -6.5 road favorites. 

While some backers may be hesitant to take the Broncos this early in the season, it may be the best week to side with Denver, given they play in the AFC West – the toughest division in the league. There won’t be too many other near guarantee win weeks. Denver is an excellent pick to start.

Colts over Texans

Few will disagree that the Texans are the worst team in the AFC. In the second year of rebuilding following the Deshaun Watson trade in the offseason, the Texans are relying on second-year QB Davis Mills to improve upon his somewhat impressive rookie season. However, Mills is still short of offensive weapons outside WR Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins. The RB position remains questionable with rookie Dameon Pierce and the oft-injured Rex Burkhead. Houston may find itself having trouble putting points up on the board.

On the other side, Indy is much improved after acquiring longtime Falcons QB Matt Ryan in the offseason. RB Jonathan Taylor is set to pick up where he left off from his MVP-caliber season, and promising WR Michael Pittman should develop incredible chemistry with Ryan. Don’t forget, this was a team that needed only one win in its final two games to clinch a playoff spot, but the poor play of Carson Wentz squandered the Colts’ chances. In response, Indy brought in Ryan, who they believe is the missing piece to make a deep postseason run. Indy may be the safe play this week if you want a near-certain bet.

Panthers over Browns

When the Browns traded Baker Mayfield, I said the Panthers would win Week 1, no matter who their opponent was. It only increased my confidence when I saw Carolina had Cleveland on their schedule. No one in this league plays better with a chip on their shoulder than Baker Mayfield. With a change of scenery and a bevy of new weapons, including WR D.J. Moore and RB Christian McCaffrey, Baker is prime to return to his 2020 form when he led the Browns to the postseason.

To no surprise, Baker’s replacement, Deshaun Watson, was suspended 11 games after over two dozen women accused him of sexual misconduct. The Browns must rely on Jacoby Brissett to take over under center until he returns. While a decent QB, Brissett is nowhere near Watson’s talent level. Additionally, the Browns no longer have Jarvis Landry or Odell Beckham Jr. as their wideouts and will put their hopes on Amari Cooper, who they acquired from the Cowboys in the offseason. 

Even if Watson was playing, you have to suspect Baker will be beyond motivated to defeat his former team. Baker voiced his frustration and the lack of respect the Browns seemed to show him, and there is no doubt he will want to stick it to Cleveland on the field. Whatever your prospects for Carolina, this is one game I can honestly see the team giving their all, especially Baker. This is the best – if only – reliable week to use Carolina for now.

Ravens over Jets

The Ravens lost their last six games last year when Lamar Jackson suffered a season-ending injury in Week 13. Had Jackson remained healthy, the Ravens were in a prime position to win the division and potentially secure a Wild Card berth. However, Jackson’s injury, combined with numerous injuries to key defensive players, cost the Ravens gravely. Now, Baltimore returns fully healthy. Not only is Jackson back, but third-year, highly-touted RB J.K. Dobbins will suit up after missing the 2021 season. 

The Jets made some key additions in the offseason, drafting “Sauce” Gardner and signing S Jordan Whitehead to bolster their defense. Still, all eyes will be on second-year QB Zach Wilson and whether he can progress in his development in the league. The Jets gave Wilson a much-needed boost by drafting Iowa State RB Breece Hall in the second round, which should take pressure off their QB.

Nevertheless, the Ravens should have no issue putting away the Jets – even on the road. Baltimore is a favorite to contend for the postseason while the Jets are still rebuilding. With a healthy unit, the Ravens’ defense should eat up Wilson and force him to make mistakes and commit turnovers. Sure, there is always uncertainty with Jackson returning from injury, but expect his legs to be fresh and ready to go. Ravens is a solid play. 

49ers over Bears

The jury is still out on Trey Lance, but the Niners should be able to handle a floundering Bears squad – even in Chicago. Lance aside, this San Fran team went toe-to-toe with the eventual Super Bowl Champion Rams in the NFC Conference Championship game in January. The versatile Deebo Samuel is in line for another strong season, along with RB Elijah Mitchell, TE George Kittle, and WR Brandon Aiyuk. That arsenal alone should provide ample opportunity for Lance to succeed in his second year in the league. Let’s not forget the Niners’ defense, which ranks near the top of the NFC with Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Fred Warner.

On the other hand, Chicago has done the opposite for their second-year QB Justin Fields. They lost top wideout Allen Robinson II and LB Khalil Mack to free agency. They also parted ways with HC Matt Nagy and hired Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus as his replacement. This was an odd hire, considering the Bears opted for a defensive-minded coach over an offensive guru, given the need to develop Fields’ talent.

It will likely be a long season for Chicago and an unpredictable one for San Fran. The Niners’ success is mainly dependent on the success of Lance and whether he can transform into a franchise QB. Still, in this matchup, the Niners carry the best overall squad out of the two and should be able to emerge victorious in a low-scoring affair. I understand if there are any qualms about choosing the Niners this early without seeing how Lance will adapt as a starter, but this is perhaps the easiest matchup he will get this season. The Niners may not cover the -7.5 point spread, but they will win outright.