We were back to our winning ways in our best bets last week at 3-2. We missed covering the Lions’ game by half a point and the Falcons by an entire point – tough break. Our overall best bets record is now 22-18. Let’s get to the picks.

Lions +3.5 over Packers

They’ve let me down the past few weeks, but I’m backing the Lions again. Much has been made about Detroit trading away TE T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings this week, but his absence should not affect the game too significantly. The Lions have a healthy D’Andre Swift in the backfield, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is back to his usual production. 

The Packers, meanwhile, continue to struggle on offense. If it had not been for a garbage time TD against the Bills, Green Bay would have failed to cover an 11-point spread last Sunday night. While Aaron Rodgers has owned his division opponents over the years, this is an entirely different season, and he will have to play another game on the road.

I’m not going so bold to pick the Lions to win outright, but they can cover. Their offense is returning to the same potent form it was at the beginning of the year. What better way to turn things around than to go up against another underperforming team? This matchup could easily come down to the final possession; in that case, the extra 0.5-point makes the home underdogs appealing. Take the Lions to cover.

Raiders -1.5 over Jaguars

It is finally safe to say that the premature hype surrounding the Jaguars is officially over. At 2-6, Jacksonville has greatly disappointed its backers, failing to cover multiple weeks. I was never on the Jaguars bandwagon. I felt their shutout against the Colts was the result of Indy missing half of their starting roster, and their blowout of the Chargers took place with an injured Justin Herbert, along with injuries to LA’s starting LT, top DE, and top CB. Trevor Lawrence has been inconsistent and remains prone to make mistakes. If there is one bright spot, it is RB Travis Etienne. The former Clemson back has been magnificent since taking over as a full-time starter and should have another solid game against a Raiders squad that allowed Alvin Kamara to run all over them.

That said, I’m picking the Raiders to cover and win outright on the road. I love backing teams coming off embarrassing losses, and being shut out by the Saints, 24-0, was abysmal. Expect the Raiders to pound the ball behind Josh Jacobs since Jacksonville struggles against the run. Also, look for WR Davante Adams to have a massive day after being limited to one catch last week. Josh McDaniels most likely lit a fire under his team at practice all week. They will be ready for this one.

Falcons +3 over Chargers

This is one of my outright upsets of the week. The Falcons escaped with a win against Carolina last week, but they have the fortune of playing a decimated Chargers team on Sunday. In this contest, the Chargers’ offense will miss top wideouts Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and DE Joey Bosa will remain on IR. While LA will look to incorporate Austin Ekeler heavily into the offense, they will still be limited in the receiving core.

The Falcons will also rely significantly on the run behind rookie RB Tyler Allgeier. The Chargers defense is weak all around, especially against the run. QB Marcus Mariota will also use his legs and still has TE Kyle Pitts and WR Drake London at his disposal. Even if Atlanta falls short of an upset, the three points for a home team that has played close in just about every game this season is far more appealing. At 6-2 ATS this year, the Falcons are the pick.

Commanders +3 over Vikings

The Vikings are still overrated, even with the acquisition of TE T.J. Hockenson. They have played quite a few lucky contests in recent weeks. Despite being outgained by the Dolphins, who were missing QB Tua Tagovailoa, they squeaked out a win, capitalizing on turnovers from QB Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater. And just last week, thanks to a fumbled punt by Arizona WR Greg Dortch, the Vikings were able to seal the win.

I love the Commanders this week. Once Washington named Taylor Heinicke the starting QB, I predicted the team would rally behind him over Carson Wentz. Since taking over, Heinicke is 2-0 in both his starts, with an upset over the Packers and a come-from-behind win against the Colts. His chemistry is seamless with WR Terry McLaurin, and the two should be able to connect throughout this matchup. 

While the Vikings have a dual threat in the passing game with WR Justin Jefferson and the running game with Dalvin Cook, Washington’s defense has stepped up as of late, and they can limit the Vikings’ production and keep it close. I won’t go as far as to predict the upset, but at home, Washington will cover.

Titans +12.5 over Chiefs

I know it’s the Chiefs, and I know it’s Andy Reid coming off a bye week, but 12.5 points are way too much to lay to a Titans team still in first place in its division. Whether it is Ryan Tannehill or Malik Willis starting at QB for Tennessee, the Titans will feed the ball to RB Derrick Henry as they did against the Texans last weekend. Keeping Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field will be priority No. 1 for the Titans, and with long drives that keep the clock ticking, they should be able to keep the game in range. Don’t forget; this Tennessee squad embarrassed the Chiefs 27-3 in their regular season meeting last year. While that loss may still be fresh in the Chiefs’ heads, this is just too many points to cover. Take the Titans.