Our best bets almost had another winning weekend, but the Dolphins failed to cover in a 16-10 loss, resulting in a 2-3 week. That puts our season total up to 19-16. Let’s have another winning week. Here are the picks.
Lions +3.5 over Dolphins
The Lions have failed me mightily the past few weekends, but that will change on Sunday against Miami. After a week of practice, it sounds like RB D’Andre Swift will return to the field. Top WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is also expected to play after leaving the game early in the first half against Dallas last Sunday with a head injury. That should give Jared Goff plenty of weapons against a Miami squad that ranks near the bottom of the league in yards and points allowed per game.
While the Lions’ defense is perhaps one of the worst in the league, they will go up against a Miami team that just brought Tua Tagovailoa back on the field just a few weeks after suffering a scary head injury. In last week’s contest against the Steelers, Tua appeared rusty and finished with his lowest QBR of the season. Whether or not the Dolphins rushed him back is another concern, but Miami may take a more conservative approach and rely on their rushing attack throughout the game.
The Lions are an underrated squad, and I will back them in this one. I won’t call the upset because Miami is the superior squad, but the Lions should revert to their explosive selves and keep the game within a field goal. In the past two games, the Lions went up against two top defenses between the Patriots and the Cowboys. Miami’s defense is nowhere near that level.
Broncos +2.5 over Jaguars
Russell Wilson is set to start after missing last week’s loss to the Jets. Even though Wilson has been a big disappointment for his new team since Denver acquired him in the offseason, a week’s recovery and a change of scenery across the pond in London may be just what he needs.
Either way, if Wilson can generate a handful of scoring drives, that should be more than enough, given the Broncos’ defense still ranks as one of the league’s elite. Pat Surtain has emerged as one of the best CBs, and Bradley Chubb continues to dominate the linebacker corps. As a whole, this unit should be able to limit the Jaguars’ offense and cause second-year QB, Trevor Lawrence, to make mistakes. In every game, this season, the Broncos defense has put the team in a prime position to win. They finally cash in on Sunday.
Falcons -4 over Panthers
Before their loss against the Bengals last weekend, the Falcons were a perfect 6-0 ATS. However, all good things must eventually come to an end. The Falcons are fortunate to rebound against a tanking Carolina Panthers team. Sure, the Panthers pulled off an improbable upset against the Bucs on Sunday, but Tampa Bay has been spiraling downward all season and now sit at 3-5. That is not to take away from the win, but it is an anomaly for Carolina. The Falcons should have no issues running the ball and capitalizing on their run game behind rookie Tyler Allgeier. Expect the Panthers to struggle to put points on the board once again. Falcons win and cover.
Cowboys -9.5 over Bears
The Bears were a nice story defeating the Patriots at home on Monday night, but their victory will be short-lived. While Justin Fields put up his best game of the season, he will have to face a Cowboys defense that is perhaps the best unit in the NFC. Behind Micah Parsons, Dallas’ pass rush is lethal, and they have shut out top offenses throughout their run, most notably the Lions and Rams as of late. You can bet the Cowboys’ front seven must be licking their lips, knowing they will be going up against one of the worst offensive lines in the league on Sunday. It will be an uphill battle for the Bears to generate any offense in this game. It’s a considerable number, but the Cowboys win and cover.
Patriots -2.5 over Jets
Mac Jones will get the start this Sunday after a disastrous return in Monday night’s loss, where he was benched for Bailey Zappe. Hopefully, the benching acted as a wake-up call as Jones will take on the surging Jets this weekend. As long as Jones performs effectively, the Patriots should be able to rely on their defense in this matchup. In Week 7, the Jets watched as their rookie phenom Breece Hall suffered a season-ending injury. Hall was the primary reason for the Jets’ offensive success, and they will now have to turn to second-year gunslinger Zach Wilson to lead the team. Since his return, Wilson has been mediocre and gotten away with poor decisions due to Hall’s emergence. Now, all eyes will be on the former BYU star to see if he can deliver. Unfortunately, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick schemes best against young QBs. The Jets’ run comes to a halt in this game. Take the Patriots.
