We had some bad beats last week in our best bets. Carson Wentz threw what should have been the game-winning TD in the game-ending interception against the Titans, but we still finished with another winning week at 3-2. Our overall best bets record now stands at 14-11.

Let’s get into this week’s picks.

Bengals -2 over Saints

As of now, we do not know who will be out to catch passes for the Saints. Michael Thomas has yet to practice, Chris Olave remains in concussion protocol, and Jarvis Landry will likely be a game-time decision. If all three receivers are out, expect the Saints to rely on Taysom Hill in the wildcat and RB Alvin Kamara. Either way, the Bengals should be able to keep New Orleans out of the endzone. Cincinnati shut down the Ravens’ running game last week and kept Lamar Jackson in check. While I know fantasy owners are waiting for Ja’Marr Chase to break out finally, expect Cincy to lean on Joe Mixon as the Saints are weak against the run, ranking 23rd in the league. Keep an eye out for this spread. If the Saints declare all three receivers out for the game, we could soon see the spread rise to Cincy -3 or higher. The Bengals win and cover this road contest.

Dolphins +3 over Vikings

This is my upset pick of the week. Don’t fall victim to declaring the Dolphins are helpless without Tua under center. Teddy Bridgewater is competent to start in his place, but unfortunately, he exited last week’s contest after suffering a head injury. While Bridgewater will be available to play this week, the Dolphins are going with rookie QB Skylar Thompson to make his first career start. Thompson didn’t perform great against the Jets, going 19-for-33 with an INT, but with a whole week of practice, he should be more comfortable in this outing after being named the starter. Even if he struggles, Bridgewater will be ready to fill in.

While the Vikings are among the few 4-1 teams remaining, this matchup may pose problems for Minnesota. For one, Xavien Howard is expected back for the Dolphins. If Howard can play, he will cover Justin Jefferson throughout the game and do a much better job than Chicago’s secondary last week. The Vikings have benefitted from opposing teams without top receivers since losing to the Eagles. We saw how well A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith performed against the Vikings’ secondary, so you can bet Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill will be menaces to Minnesota’s defense. I’m taking the Dolphins’ moneyline, but take the points to be safe. 

Packers -7.5 over Jets

I love backing elite QBs coming off a loss, which is the case for Aaron Rodgers. Even though the Jets are a surprising 3-2, their wins came courtesy of the Browns, Steelers, and Dolphins. In fact, all three wins were against backup QBs (Jacoby Brissett, Kenny Pickett, and Skylar Thompson). New York has yet to defeat a QB of Rodgers’ caliber, as evident by their losses to the Bengals (Joe Burrow) and Ravens (Lamar Jackson). Don’t shy away from the big number. The Packers dominate this game.

Falcons +5.5 over 49ers 

The Falcons are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season, so why buck the trend? Atlanta has a favorable matchup against the 49ers this weekend, who lost Emmanuel Moseley to a season-ending injury. Many expected Desmond Ridder to be the QB by now, but Marcus Mariota has been solid in his reemergence as a starter. This Atlanta team is pesky, overcoming double-digit deficits to the Rams and the Bucs to come within a TD. They should cover here too.

Bills -2.5 over Chiefs 

It’s safe to say that the Bills circled this game on their calendars from the day schedules were announced. After a heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round, the Bills will look to prove they were the better team in that game. Without a doubt, Buffalo is the best team in the NFL this season, despite their lone loss to the Dolphins in Week 3. Josh Allen already has generated plenty of MVP chatter, and Stefan Diggs ranks second in the league in receiving yards. While the Chiefs have been on a roll aside from their fluke loss to the Colts, Buffalo is by far the superior team. Bills win and cover.