Initially, I took the Chargers in my second chance Survivor Pool this past weekend. Thanks to some intel that Justin Herbert wasn’t 100 percent despite starting, I switched my pick to the Bengals, who took care of the Jets well before halftime.

Another week of surviving. Let’s get down to the Week 4 picks.

Chargers over Texans

Fortunately, I now get to back the Chargers this weekend after the Jaguars blew them out 38-10. As mentioned above, Justin Herbert was a game-time decision due to a fracture in his rib. While he was cleared to play, it was apparent he wasn’t particularly healthy as the Chargers struggled to put points on the scoreboard. To add injury to insult, LT Rashawn Slater suffered a season-ending injury in the contest. It will be challenging to replace him on the offensive line, but the Chargers should be able to contain the Texans’ defense.

The Texans put up a hard fight against the Bears but fell short due to a costly interception by QB Davis Mills late in the 4th quarter. The loss dropped their record to 0-2-1, and now Houston must take on a bitter Chargers squad that is desperate to get back to their winning ways.

Even though the Chargers will likely be missing several key contributors in this contest, they are still a far superior team to the Texans. WR Keenan Allen is expected back after missing the past two games and should provide a boost to the offense. Herbert will also have another week to heal and be ready to go on Sunday. The Chargers may be the top pick of the week.

Packers over Patriots

The Patriots’ season went from disappointing to worse on Sunday when QB Mac Jones suffered a severe high ankle sprain late in the game against the Ravens. As a result, Jones will miss several weeks, and veteran QB Brian Hoyer will take over the starting gig until his return. Needless to say, the Patriots’ offense labored to score points before Jones’ injury. With Hoyer at the helm, it may pose a more significant challenge.

The Packers are not the scoring machine they were last season. Through three games, it is evident that this team misses Davante Adams, who was traded to the Raiders in the offseason. Aaron Rodgers has yet to find a reliable receiver who could step into the No. 1 role. Still, the Packers managed to defeat the Bears comfortably and held on to beat Tom Brady and the Bucs. Despite their offensive woes, the defense has held up admirably and could greatly impact this contest.

The Packers are the largest favorites this weekend for a good reason. The Patriots must travel to Lambeau without their starting QB and rely on Hoyer to elevate the offense. While there is always a chance for a backdoor cover, the Packers should win this matchup at home.

Eagles over Jaguars

The Eagles arguably are the best team in the NFC right now and the only team in the conference with a 3-0 record. Jalen Hurts has emerged as an MVP candidate in his third season, and the addition of A.J. Brown has dramatically benefitted both Hurts and fellow wideout DeVonta Smith.

Under former Eagles head coach Doug Pederson, the Jaguars have also taken a leap forward so far this year. After a disastrous 2021 campaign behind controversial coach Urban Meyer, the Jaguars have won back-to-back games after nearly upsetting Washington in Week 1. However, the two wins came against a Colts squad that was missing multiple starters and a Chargers team dealing with several injuries, including QB Justin Herbert. Still, give credit where credit is due.

Unfortunately, for the Jaguars, their winning streak will come to an end against the Eagles. They have yet to oppose a defense of Philadelphia’s caliber as well as an offense as potent and healthy. Take Philly at home.

Lions over Seahawks

The Lions may be 1-2, but their record is far from a good indication of how well they have played thus far. In their two losses, the Lions dropped their home opener to the Eagles by a mere field goal and may have pulled off the upset of the Vikings if they opted for an easy three points rather than take a chance on 4th-and-1 late in the 4th quarter. This week, the Lions find themselves favored for the first time this season and should defeat the regressing Seahawks in their home dome.

Since defeating the Broncos in their home opener, the Seahawks have struggled. They were blown out by the 49ers in Week 2 and upset by the Falcons at home this past weekend. Their offense has faltered at times through all three games, failing to generate any positive momentum. Geno Smith has been decent, but the Seahawks’ run game has been nonexistent. They will have a chance, however, this weekend against a Lions’ defense that has surrendered nearly as many points as the offense has scored – which is a lot.

Still, I like the Lions a lot in this game. The Seahawks’ defense is not the same shutdown machine it was during the Legion of Boom days, so the Lions’ offense should quickly find the endzone in this contest, even if top RB DeAndre Swift will be out for this affair. Smith and the Seattle offense won’t be able to match the Lions’ offensive firepower and could find themselves down multiple scores early. This may be the best weekend to rely on a Lions’ win.

Giants over Bears

My Giants had a rough loss on Monday night, but they should bounce back in this contest against an anemic Bears offense. While the Giants fail more times than not to convert drives into TDs, the Bears fare worse in the scoring department. Second-year QB Justin Fields has shown no improvement since the Bears traded up to select him in the 2021 draft. Granted, Fields plays behind a horrid offensive line that ranks as one of the worst in the league. Still, while the Bears may own a 2-1 record, they have relied on fluke plays to get them in that position.

While the Giants have their growing pains on offense, they still possess an above-average defense. Even though their pass rush was nowhere to be found on Monday night against the Cowboys, the Bears offensive line is nowhere near the talent of Dallas. The Giants should have a much easier time putting pressure on Fields and forcing turnovers. 

You may be skeptical, but the Giants are a far better squad than the Bears. Expect defensive coordinator Wink Martindale to dial up the blitz on Fields and challenge Chicago’s offensive line. Daniel Jones has shown flashes of his potential through three games on the Giants’ end and continues to improve with every game. Jones should benefit from opposing a Bears’ defense that won’t pressure him nearly as often as the Cowboys’ fierce pass rush. Giants win this one.