Here we go! An entire holiday weekend with a complete slate of NFL games. 

We had another great week last week, going 4-0-1, with a push in the Titans-Chargers game. That brings our overall best bets record to 40-24-1. Let’s get to the picks.

Panthers +3 over Lions

I’ve consistently picked the Lions to win, cover, and pull off the upset the past few weeks. However, I am backing the Panthers this weekend to cover against one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Lions are a force to be reckoned with and have a legitimate shot of making the postseason. Nonetheless, the Panthers pose a challenge to this surging young squad, primarily on the defensive end. Carolina has one of the most underrated defensive units in the league. While the stats may indicate they lie in the middle of the pack, the Panthers’ defense could be troublesome for Jared Goff and co. 

I fully expect the Lions to win, but this should be a close, razor-thin game separated by a field goal or less. Goff tends to be less effective in cold weather outdoors, and as of now, the forecast calls for temperatures in the low to mid-30s. Similarly to the Jets game on Sunday, the Lions should be able to score enough points to win while giving up some. Sam Darnold is by no means a threat, but he has the tools around him in WR DJ Moore and RB D’Onta Foreman to move the chains and keep drives alive. The Lions win, but the Panthers cover.

Titans -3 over Texans

Ryan Tannehill may be done for the season, but his team is still competing for the AFC South division title. With the Jaguars only a half-game behind, every game is a must-win for Tennessee. Now, the Titans must turn to rookie QB Maalik Willis to carry them into the playoffs. In his few starts this season, Willis did little to impress. However, he may not have to do too much in this matchup against the lowly Texans. Houston boasts the worst run defense in the league, which means the Titans can rely on elite RB Derrick Henry to put on long, sustaining drives and propel Tennessee to victory. The Texans have played well as of late, nearly upsetting the Cowboys and Chiefs, but this is a tough divisional matchup for Houston. The feel-good story ends here. The Titans win and cover.

Eagles +4.5 over Cowboys

I know. Jalen Hurts is out. However, if you read this blog regularly, you know I love backing elite teams with their backup QBs. Gardner Minshew is different from your average backup QB. It wasn’t too long ago that Minshew was a solid starter for the Jaguars, and he is more than capable of stepping in for the Eagles. Not to take anything away from Hurts, but the Eagles offensive line is the best in the game, and the WR duo of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith ranks toward the top of the league. Add RB Miles Sanders and TE Dallas Goedert to the mix, and Minshew has plenty of weapons.

The Cowboys have struggled mightily in recent weeks, nearly losing to the Texans and blowing a lead to the Jaguars in OT. Now, Dallas will have to face one of the premier defenses in the league, particularly the Eagles’ secondary. Not only do I expect the Eagles to cover but to pull off the upset as well. Take Philly.

Packers +3.5 over Dolphins

Here is another upset I like this week. The Packers are rolling and look healthier than before their bye week. Aaron Rodgers, in particular, is finally settling in with his new receivers, developing good chemistry with Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson. The run game, too, has come around as AJ Dillon turned in the best game of his season on Monday night, and Aaron Jones remains a dual threat as both runner and receiver.

On the other hand, the Dolphins are trending in opposite directions. Losers of three straight, Miami has watched its lead atop the AFC East evaporate and now finds themselves fighting for a Wild Card spot. While many may have pegged this matchup as an easy win a few weeks ago, it is no longer the case. The Packers pose a challenge to Miami as their defense is much improved, and their offense is finally on the same page. That will be a risk to Miami’s defense, which ranks near the bottom of the league. Would you rather Rodgers or Tua lead your team to victory in the final two minutes of the game? I’ll go with the former, take the Packers to cover and pull off the upset.

Chiefs -10 over Seahawks

Ten points may seem like a considerable number, but I don’t think it’s high enough. The Seahawks have lost four of their last five games and are hurting, with WR Tyler Lockett expected to miss this contest. The Chiefs, conversely, are healthy, and Pat Mahomes should have no trouble racking up the points against Seattle’s defense. Seahawks QB Geno Smith had a nice comeback season, but Seattle’s playoff hopes have diminished ever since they lost to the Buccaneers in Germany. The Chiefs have too much firepower on offense, and while their defense struggles at times, it should be able to keep a depleted Seahawks team at bay. The Chiefs win and cover.