After a 2-3 Week 13, our best bets record is 31-24. Let’s start picking.

49ers -3.5 over Bucs

Years ago, an astute bettor gave me the advice to back good teams starting their backup QB. Well, I’ve found over the years that strategy has worked for me more times than it has failed, which is one reason I am backing the 49ers this weekend.

Yes, Jimmy Garoppolo is out for the season, and Brock Purdy, who was this year’s Mr. Irrelevant in the NFL Draft, is now the starter. Interestingly, just over two decades ago, a sixth-round pick named Tom Brady took over for Pro Bowler Drew Bledsoe. The rest is history.

I’m not saying Purdy is the next Brady by any means, but he will lead the 49ers to a victory over him this weekend. Purdy was more than effective last weekend against the Dolphins, throwing for 210 yards with two TDs and an INT. With a stacked offense in front of him, there is no reason why he can’t replicate that performance against an underperforming Bucs team playing on a short week. Purdy will have plenty of options between RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel, and TE George Kittle. Not to mention the 49ers’ defense is the best in the league and will be able to hold off Brady and the Bucs. San Francisco wins and covers.

Chargers +3 over Dolphins

Their records may be a two-game difference, but I see little discrepancy between the talent level of both squads. The Chargers and Dolphins are both top offensive scoring units, while their defenses remain one of the worst. In that case, I will take the points with the home underdog, knowing that this contest can come down to a last-minute field goal. The Chargers are better than their record indicates since they have dealt with several injuries on both sides of the ball. Now that they received some essential reinforcements back (Keenan Allen), Justin Herbert can go toe-to-toe with Tua Tagovailoa and his arsenal of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. I like the Chargers to pull off the upset, but I will take the points to be safe.

Lions -2 over Vikings

I’m riding the Lions again big this week. When these two teams met earlier in the season, Detroit paraded a 10-point lead until its top receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and starting running back D’Andre Swift exited with an injury. A poor decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 instead of kicking a field goal also doomed the Lions. This time around, Detroit is a much improved and more polished unit. They own a plethora of weapons on offense, and their defense has played stout as of late. I love the Lions here to defeat the Vikings, even though many wonder why a 10-2 team is an underdog in this situation. The Lions are a better team and will win this weekend.

Jaguars +3.5 over Titans

Both of these AFC South teams were blown out last weekend, but I expect the Jaguars to at least cover in this close contest. The Titans boast a tough defense, but their secondary can get burned at times, as evidenced by the way the Eagles’ receiving corps dominated on Sunday. Trevor Lawrence should bounce back this game and connect with Zay Jones and Christian Kirk. While the Titans currently sit atop the division, they remain vulnerable and will have to rely on RB Derrick Henry to get the job done. That may be enough to win, but not cover. Take the Jaguars with the points. 

Broncos +9.5 over Chiefs

Betting against the Broncos has worked for me most of the season, but surprisingly I am going to back Denver against Kansas City this weekend. The Chiefs are coming off an emotional, hard-fought loss to the Bengals and may turn out flat in Mile High. Again, not saying the Broncos are capable of pulling off an upset, but their defense is good enough to keep them in the game. Denver also has a favorable matchup against the Chiefs’ defense which ranks near the bottom of the league against the run. Latavius Murray should be able to take advantage of their weak run defense and stretch out the game for the Broncos to hang in. Take the points.