Vikings (-3) over Steelers

One of the caveats novice bettors must be aware of is that often, oddsmakers set lines knowing that the public tends to have a knee-jerk reaction to the prior week’s games. In the case of Thursday night’s featured matchup of the Steelers vs. Vikings, this is a prime example.

The public witnessed a depleted Vikings squad that was missing RB Dalvin Cook and several key defensive players lose to a winless Lions team playing more out of desperation than anything else. On the other side, a week after suffering an embarrassing 41-10 loss to divisional opponent Cincinnati, the Steelers were determined to avenge that defeat against another division foe in the Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh did just that, thanks to the Ravens choosing to go for the win rather than tie the game with a failed 2-point conversion as time expired. 

The public will undoubtedly be quick to pounce on Pittsburgh and eagerly take the additional 3 points the oddsmakers set with the spread. After all, the Vikings are an inconsistent 5-7 team, dealing with rumors that their head coach may soon be fired. At the same time, the Steelers seem rejuvenated at 6-5-1 after an emotional upset of their division rival. However, bettor beware. 

One of my favorite bets is always betting against teams coming off emotionally-charged wins and siding with teams coming off embarrassing losses. Though both teams have been inconsistent all season, the Vikings, at least, have played all of their games close and should be able to bounce back following a loss to a winless Lions squad. On the other hand, Pittsburgh is in a prime position to fall flat after their highly-contested battle with the Ravens. 

This week, Minnesota will get Cook back. Between him and Alexander Mattison, who is one of the best No. 2 running backs in the league, they will be able to run all over the Steelers’ defense. While the Vikings may be without wideout Adam Thielen in the contest, they still have a potent receiving core behind top WR Justin Jefferson and TE Tyler Conklin. 

Pittsburgh has struggled mightily at times on offense this season. Expect for Minnesota to drive up the defensive pressure on the immobile Ben Roethlisberger, who has only a few games left in his career, and force him out of the pocket early. The more the Vikings limit his time in the pocket, the more successful they will be in hindering his ability to connect with receivers downfield.

Both teams are fighting for a playoff position, but I am siding with the Vikings. I’m hesitant to trust Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins in primetime, but his defense should be able to step up and force the Steelers to commit multiple turnovers. This game can quickly come down to a last-minute field goal, but I still think Minnesota will win comfortably by a touchdown or more. Lay the points.