I was 4-1 last week in my Best Bets, with my only loss coming on the Monday Night football game with the Bills falling to the Patriots 14-10. I couldn’t have predicted the intense windy conditions that resulted in New England’s Mac Jones attempting only 3 passes and the Buffalo’s Josh Allen throwing 30. 

Let’s have another winning week. Here are this week’s Best Bets:

Falcons +2.5 over Panthers

Ever since Cam Newton made his superhero return to Carolina, he has looked worse than ever in his career, including his last game against the Dolphins. He completed only 5-of-20 passes and was benched for PJ Walker in the second half. To add, the Panthers suffered another devastating blow when they announced that star RB Christian McCaffrey would miss the remainder of the season shortly after. Since starting the season 3-0, Carolina has experienced nothing but woes on offense, and there are no signs of improvement ahead.

The Falcons, meanwhile, have not fared much better. Atlanta has lost 3 of its last 4 contests – all by double digits and barely scraped by the dismal Jaguars 21-14 in their only win in that span. QB Matt Ryan does not have the offensive firepower he once possessed during Atlanta’s Super Bowl run in 2016-2017. No Julio Jones. No Calvin Ridley. No Mohamed Sanu. No Devonta Freeman. Sure, rookie TE Kyle Pitts has been an excellent addition and has exceeded expectations, but that’s about how far their success goes.

In this matchup with two teams with unrealistic playoff hopes, I will side with the veteran QB I trust the most in Ryan. This game should be a low-scoring coin toss, but in the end, I’ll hedge on Ryan to lead his team down the field for the final score. Even if they fall short, I can’t see this game decided by more than a point or two. Take the points.

Browns -2.5 over Ravens

Despite their record, I haven’t been high on the Ravens all season. In their last 6 games, they sport only a 3-3 record, and in their 3 wins, they have yet to win by more than one score. Most of their successes could easily have been defeats if not for K Justin Tucker’s heroics in multiple contests. To make matters worse, they lost star CB Marlon Humphrey over the weekend to a season-ending injury. Baltimore may once again struggle to keep the opponent’s offense off the field with an already depleted defensive unit. In addition, it’s not just the defense to worry about in the game. The offense has failed to score more than 19 points in their last 4 matchups.

This season, the Browns have also been in turmoil with 4th-year QB Baker Mayfield’s regression. To be fair, Mayfield has suffered multiple injuries this year and has played through most of his ailments, but the offense simply has not been productive. After releasing beleaguered WR Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland has not found their groove putting points on the board. However, with the Ravens housing multiple injuries to key players on defense, the Browns should have success moving the ball, especially on the ground.

The last times these two teams played, the Ravens snuck by with an ugly 16-10 win. In that contest, the Ravens had the home-field advantage in their favor. Now, Baltimore will have to travel to a hostile Cleveland environment – a week after losing to another division foe in the Steelers. This is another game I can see being low-scoring, and in that case, I will side with the home team. Lay the points.

Bills +3.5 over Buccaneers

I love siding with good teams coming off tough losses, and this is a perfect opportunity for the Bills after falling short this past Monday to the Patriots. It will be a much different environment in Tampa Bay at Raymond James Stadium instead of the cold, windy weather conditions they were forced to play in on Monday.

It was perplexing that the Bills opted to veer from the ground game and rely on the passing game despite the wind. With Josh Allen as QB, that is usually not a bad strategy, but he was affected by the 30-40 MPH winds as any passer would be. This week, Allen should have a much easier time passing downfield against the Bucs. Expect Stefan Diggs and Dawson Knox to have plenty of catches without battling less than stellar conditions.

I know I have been skeptical of Tom Brady and the Bucs all season, but the Bucs have struggled against superior competition this year. I like the Bills to bounce back with a statement win in this game or come within a FG in Tampa. Take the points.

Bengals -1 over Niners

Picking the Chargers over the Bengals was a no-brainer for me last weekend. I knew Cincinnati was sure to fall flat after their emotional win against longtime division rival the Steelers. Now, the Bengals are in a prime position to rebound this week with a matchup against the Niners. 

The Niners, however, are a team struggling with injuries right now after losing top WR Deebo Samuel. They simply did not look the same this past weekend, and the Bengals should capitalize on their woes and limit the offensive production. Though Cincy QB Joe Burrow is a bit banged up himself, he still has the necessary offensive weapons to drive up the score and a great run game behind RB Joe Mixon.

This game is technically a pick ‘em, but I love the Bengals to win convincingly. I have been high on Cincy all season, and this week is no different. Plus, the Niners have to travel on the road to play in front of a pumped-up Bengals’ crowd who will be sure to turn up the volume. Take the Bengals.

Rams +3 over Cardinals

I thought about this game for quite some time before settling in on the Rams. I’m not confident that LA will win, but I am pretty sure the last possession will settle this game. While, when healthy, I believe the Cardinals are the superior team, both squads enter the contest banged up on both sides. Though Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins returned to face Chicago last week, this will be a much tougher test for the two as they still may have lingering injuries. 

QB Matthew Stafford still does not appear to be 100 percent on the Rams’ side. Despite rolling past the lowly Jaguars, the Rams have struggled lately against the competition, and that could continue this weekend. Fortunately, the Cardinals still have injuries, which should level the playing field.

This game can go either way, but in the end, I think the Rams will ultimately find a way to win, especially after losing to Arizona earlier in the season. There will be a motivational factor to defend that loss. Either way, I’m comfortable taking the points.