Chargers +3 over Bengals
When I first saw this line, I knew it would be one of my top picks of the week. The public loves reacting to the most recent action, and seeing the Chargers lose to the Broncos and the Bengals destroy the Steelers was a no-brainer for them to side with Cincy. I’m going the opposite way.
The Chargers have been money for me all season because they are the same Chargers we see every year. Win one, lose one. They have some impressive victories but also some poor outings. Against Denver, the offense was non-existent, but this week will be different against a Cincy defense that previously allowed 41 and 34 points to the Browns and Jets, respectively.
The Bengals are one of my sleeper teams to make a deep postseason run, but I believe they will struggle this weekend in a close, high-scoring affair. I imagine these two teams will go back and forth all game, and the final victor will be the squad with the last score of the contest. That being said, I will take the team looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss. Take the points with LA.
Seahawks +3 over Niners
The Niners have been the hot squad lately, stringing out 3 straight wins against the Rams, Jaguars, and Vikings. However, San Fran will have to keep the momentum going without their top playmakers in WR Deebo Samuel, who will miss 1-2 weeks with an injury. Jimmy Garoppolo will have to rely on WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle in the passing game without Samuel. Expect the Seahawks to double team one of the two and limit Garoppolo’s targets the entire contest.
The Seahawks’ playoff hopes are all but over with a Monday night 15-13 loss to the Washington Football Team. Yet, with Russell Wilson at the helm, don’t expect Seattle to lay down and play for a favorable draft pick. This team still has plenty of pride and will look to play spoiler to their division opponent.
With how much the public is pounding the Niners, this is my favorite pick of the week. I know Wilson still might not be 100 percent, but the defense should be able to keep the game close. When I feel a game is going to come down to whichever team has the last possession, I always take the points. Take Seattle.
Steelers +4.5 over Ravens
If the Ravens had played just about any other team in the AFC (minus the Jets and Texans), they probably would have lost, given that Lamar Jackson threw 4 interceptions in the Sunday Night game against the Browns. Yet, Cleveland continued its poor offensive play and failed to capitalize.
The Steelers, on the other hand, were embarrassed on Sunday, losing to the Bengals 41-10 with their only TD coming in garbage time. Head coach Mike Tomlin was visibly furious, and you know he will have his squad studying film nonstop and practicing extra hard this week. Although Big Ben looks like he is on his way to retirement, he should have a better game against a Ravens defense that has struggled all year. Add to the fact that these two teams hate each other and always play close games against one another, and I’ll take the points with Pittsburgh.
Chiefs -10 over Denver
I usually never side with double-digit favorites in a divisional matchup, but I almost always side with Andy Reid coming off a bye. Reid owns a 19-3 record straight up in his head coaching career following his team’s bye week. Now, the spread may seem high. However, the Broncos are coming off an emotionally-charged upset win against the Chargers. They now have to travel on the road to Arrowhead Stadium to play a Chiefs squad that was playing its best football before the bye.
I love the Chiefs this week and especially in this situation. Patrick Mahomes should have the offense rolling early against Denver’s defense, and whether it is Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock under center for the Broncos, both will have trouble keeping up with the score. There’s always a chance for a backdoor cover, but in this case, I feel the Chiefs won’t have trouble finding the endzone and put the game out of reach early.
Bills -2.5 over Patriots
Following their blowout of the Titans, the Patriots have climbed the ladder in most power rankings this past week, with some media outlets crowning them the best in the AFC. Call me skeptical, but I still hesitate to crown a team led by Mac Jones, Jakobi Meyers, and Damien Harris as the favorite to reach the Super Bowl. Don’t forget, the Patriots were opposing a Titans squad that was down their top 2 receivers in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, along with arguably the best RB in the league in Derrick Henry. Add to the fact that they had two costly turnovers deep in the Patriots’ territory, and the final score would have been much closer.
We saw the Bills dominate a depleted team as well on Thanksgiving when they blew out the Saints 31-6. Still, as inconsistent as the Bills have been this season, they tend to play aggressively in meaningful games. This matchup, in particular, is a battle for first place in the AFC East. Expect the Bills to bring their A-game in front of their home crowd.
