We continued our winning ways in our best bets last week at 3-2. We missed covering the Raiders when they failed to score a single point in the second half and the Falcons when their defensive end fumbled the ball after recovering it – tough break. Our overall best bets record is now 25-20. Let’s get to the picks.

Browns +3.5 over Dolphins

I like the Browns to upset the Dolphins, but I’ll grab the points to be safe. Cleveland has the benefit of playing on an extra week of rest since their bye was last weekend, and their secondary matches up well against the Dolphins’ potent 1-2 of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. In fact, Cleveland has allowed the least passing yards to offenses when playing on the road. We know Miami relies heavily on its passing game, so they will have to rely on Raheem Mostert to get the run game going. That will be a challenge with Myles Garrett manning the defensive line for the Browns, and you know he is eager to sack Tua Tagovailoa after his noteworthy performance against the Bengals last Monday night. 

The Dolphins also own one of the worst defenses in the league. We just watched Justin Fields set a record with 178 rushing yards for a QB, so expect Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt duo to pound the ball. I’m on the Browns to win but take the points.

Bucs -2.5 over Seahawks

Several factors weigh in this decision. For one, Seattle is a young team traveling to play overseas and must travel from the west coast to Germany. Second, the time difference is more significant, meaning that it will be 6:30 am PT at kickoff. That’s quite the jet lag.

Besides the external circumstances, the Bucs finally came to life at the end of regulation last Sunday against the Rams. Tom Brady was his vintage self and led his team to score the game-winning TD with less than a minute remaining. Motivation tends to carry, and there’s nothing like a feel-good victory to propel the Bucs back to their winning selves.

The Seahawks, while they have been one of the surprises of the year, will have trouble against the Bucs’ defense. Tampa ranks 5th against the pass, which will limit Geno Smith in this contest. Expect Seattle to rely heavily on the legs of Kenneth Walker, who has been a star since taking over the full-time role.

The public loves Seattle in this matchup, so I am going the other way. The Bucs are a better team on paper, and their offense should get going in this game. Mike Evans won’t drop as many passes as he did last week, and Brady seems to have a solid rapport with emerging TE Cade Otton. The Bucs win and cover.

Lions +3.5 over Bears

I’m backing the Lions again. Many will hop on the Bears bandwagon, given how well Justin Fields has performed running the ball the past few weeks. However, while we know the Bears should take advantage of the Lions’ inept defense, the defense could be much better. After trading away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, they are even more vulnerable. We know Detroit can score at will, despite their offense struggling as of late, but this will be the perfect opportunity for the Lions to put points on the board.

The Bears hold the home-field advantage, and it will be cold at Soldier Field with temperatures in the high-30s, but Detroit should be able to keep striking distance. We just saw Miami and Dallas put up big points against the Bears. The Lions should have no issues as well.

Steelers +2.5 over Saints

Here’s another upset I like. The Saints will have to play on a short week, while the Steelers enjoyed a week off with a bye. Expect a well-rested Steelers squad to take advantage of New Orleans’ depleted roster and limit the Saints scoring ability. Moreover, DE T.J. Watt will make his long-awaited return, and his presence should be more than enough to generate pressure on Andy Dalton and force turnovers. Kenny Pickett is making strides as the Steelers’ starting QB, and now that Chase Claypool is in Chicago, he should be able to target WR George Pickens more frequently. The Steelers win outright.

Colts +5.5 over Raiders

Why the Raiders are more than one or two-point favorites in this game is baffling enough, but I like the Colts to cover and potentially win outright. RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to return to the lineup and should bolster the Colts’ offense against a struggling Raiders defense. While Indy has flaws on offense, its defense is still an underrated squad and ranks near the top against passing yards. After the Raiders blew a 10-point lead last week and failed to score in the second half, I have no faith in Vegas. Give me the Colts and the points.