Y’all ready for some football?!?
Week 1 is here and it’s time for our 5 Best Bets against the spread blog.
We will be keeping track of our record all season, so let’s start the year off right. Here are our top 5 picks this week:
Lions +4.5 over Eagles
This is not only my favorite underdog to cover this week, but I am predicting the outright upset. For betting purposes, though, I always take the safe route in Week 1 and take the points, which is what I am going to do with the Lions.
The Lions are one of the most underrated teams in the league. Though their record may indicate otherwise, Detroit went toe-to-toe with some elite teams last season, notably the Rams and the Ravens. They also saw the late-season emergence of WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who projects to be one of the top playmakers in the NFC this season. The Lions drafted Jameson Williams out of Alabama to further bolster their receiving corps and signed DJ Chark from Jacksonville. While Williams may be out Sunday, Chark should have an immediate impact.
The Eagles made an offseason splash of their own, trading for Titans WR A.J. Brown. On paper, Philly has all the makings of a team destined for the playoffs again after clinching a Wild Card last season. However, all will be dependent on QB Jalen Hurts. In the postseason game against the Bucs last January, Hurts appeared overwhelmed and frazzled under pressure, often overthrowing or underthrowing his target. Whether he will regress or progress this season will determine Philly’s success.
I’m all over the Lions on this one. Jared Goff should settle in comfortably in his second year with Detroit, and RB D’Andre Swift is prime to have a breakout season. While the Eagles also have a strong run game, the Lions upgraded their D-line, drafting the local product Aiden Hutchison out of Michigan.
Philly may have been a playoff team last year, but let’s not forget they were 1-6 against postseason teams (their lone win was against the Cowboys in Week 18 when Dallas sat most of its starters). As good as the Eagles can be, they also have their flaws. On the other hand, Detroit finished their 2021-2022 campaign strong, going 7-2 ATS in their final nine games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home. I love the Lions here—my lock of the week.
Giants +6.5 over Titans
Again, full disclosure, I’m a Giants fan, but my bias has no bearing on my pick this week. The Giants are in a great position to cover this weekend against the flailing Titans.
Besides losing WR A.J. Brown in the offseason, the Titans recently watched Harold Landry III, their top pass rusher, suffer a season-ending injury. That could create problems on the defense opposing a rejuvenated Saquon Barkley, looking to recapture the magic from his rookie season.
The Giants’ offense, as a whole, should be vastly improved from last season. The Giants expect QB Daniel Jones to finally leap in his fourth season with a new coaching regime in Brian Daboll. In all fairness, Jones has spent the first three seasons of his career playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Giants drafted T Evan Neal at No. 7 overall to address the need and signed G Mark Glowinski and C Jon Feliciano. As long as WRs Sterling Shepard, Kenny Golladay, and Kadarius Toney stay healthy, Jones should have plenty of weapons to utilize this year.
The one major caveat for the Giants this week will be stopping Derrick Henry. If the Giants’ top draft pick LB Kayvon Thibodeaux can play, that will only bolster their pass rush and potentially shut down Henry. The Giants’ key is forcing Tannehill to throw the ball and make a mistake.
While an upset is possible, I love taking the points in this matchup. It will most likely be a low-scoring affair which should enable the Giants to stay within a score. Take the points, but don’t be surprised if you see an upset. Beware if you picked the Titans for your Survivor Pool.
Patriots +3.5 over Dolphins
The Dolphins enter the 2022 season as one of the most hyped teams in the league with their acquisition of WR Tyreek Hill. They also bolstered their run game by signing RB Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert in the offseason. That should give Tua Tagovailoa plenty of resources to make plays this season.
However, the number one priority for Tua is staying healthy, which he hasn’t been able to do since his college days. Though he appears 100 percent to start the year, there is also the question of how he will adjust in his second entire season as a starter. He won’t wait long to be tested as he will open the year opposing Bill Belichick, who loves to pick apart young QBs.
The Patriots were a surprise success last season behind rookie QB Mac Jones. However, Jones faltered in the final games of the regular season and looked significantly outmatched in a blowout loss to the Bills in the AFC Wild Card round. Unfortunately, many expect Jones to regress this season following the departure of OC Josh McDaniels, who took over as HC of the Raiders.
The Patriots are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on the road in Miami. If you plan on reading my columns, though, know that I like bucking the trend from time to time, and this is one of those instances. Belichick flew his team to South Beach earlier in the week to get the team acclimated to the sweltering humidity, which could benefit the players on Sunday.
The Patriots have some injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but I’m confident Belichick will have his team ready behind veterans Devin McCourty and Matt Judon. If they can cause Tua to make mistakes and force turnovers, then Mac Jones should be able to capitalize with the offense. Belichick will outcoach Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel making his head coaching debut and should at least be in line to cover, if not win outright.
Niners -6.5 over Bears
Trey Lance gets a cakewalk to start the season, opening against two of the worst teams in the NFL – the Bears and Seahawks. And after watching Chicago struggle against Seattle in the preseason, it looks like the Bears and second-year QB Justin Fields will have a long year ahead of them.
The Bears have, perhaps, the worst offensive line in the league, and that won’t bode well against the Niners’ defense. Last year, the Niners ranked 3rd in the least amount of yards surrendered per game. Expect Fields to find himself constantly scrambling for help against Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and the rest of the Niners’ defensive unit. Gone is the Bears’ top wideout Allen Robinson II, who left Chicago for Los Angeles. Without Robinson, Fields will have to rely on Darnell Mooney and TE Cole Kmet if he can avoid the sack in the Niners’ deadly pass rush.
While the jury is still out on Lance, the promising QB will get his chance to take advantage of a squandering Bears’ defense that is nowhere near the shutdown caliber it was a few seasons back. Khalil Mack is gone, and Roquan Smith is still demanding a trade. Lance should be able to lean on the versatile Deebo Samuel to get crafty with his playmaking ability, along with RB Elijah Mitchell. WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle will have their day feasting on rookie CB Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson.
This may seem like a high spread for a road favorite, but it isn’t high enough. Whether it is Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo under center for the Niners, the San Francisco offense will likely dominate the time of possession and rack up the points on the board. Fields, on the other side, will have his work cut out from him, granted he can escape the stout Niners’ defense. Give me the Niners in a comfortable win.
Broncos -6.5 over Seahawks
After nine seasons in Seattle, Russell Wilson finally agreed to part ways with the team that drafted him out of Wisconsin, agreeing to a trade to the Broncos. Though his bags are freshly unpacked in Denver, Wilson will already get the opportunity for a reunion with his former team this Monday night when the Broncos take on the Seahawks in primetime.
It should be no surprise that the Broncos are heavy favorites on the road, given their lofty expectations to make a run at the Super Bowl while the Seahawks are headed for a lengthy rebuild. Wilson should have no trouble carving up his former team’s defense. In addition to Wilson, the Seahawks lost longtime LB Bobby Wagner in the offseason and were ranked 28th overall in yards allowed per game last season. Wilson should be able to find WRs Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton for plenty of extended plays, and RBs Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon should barrel right through Seattle’s weak run defense.
For the Seahawks, former Jets QB Geno Smith takes over under center, beating out Drew Lock for the starting gig. Smith filled in for Wilson in four games last season, and while he played decently, the Seahawks still dropped three of the four starts. Seattle will most likely rely on the run game combo of Rashaad Penny and rookie Kenneth Walker III. Penny, while oft-injured, can be a force when healthy, and Walker compiled over 1600 yards last season at Michigan State.
I hate siding with the public, but this is one game I cannot pass up. Many will point out that Seattle is a tough team to beat and cover against at home, but this is a different team without Wilson. Denver may be 1-5 ATS in its last six games on the road, but that was with Drew Lock/Teddy Bridgewater at the helm. Wilson brings a new dynamic to Denver’s offense and should be able to put points on the board. Seattle will struggle against a rejuvenated Broncos’ defense that ranked 3rd in the league in the least points allowed per game. It’s a lot of points, but I’ll lay them here.
