Who: Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers

Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

When: Monday, December 19th, 2022, 8:15pm ET

Spread: Packers -7.5

Total: 39.5 o/u

Aaron Rodgers is on record for emphasizing he will continue to play and compete as long as the Packers are still mathematically alive for the playoffs. Technically, at 5-8, Green Bay still has an outside shot of securing the final Wild Card spot. However, if the Packers want to keep their playoff hopes alive, they will likely have to win their last four games outright – and pray that the Lions, Commanders, and Seahawks go on losing streaks.

It would be an understatement to say it has been a disappointing year for the Packers. One year removed from clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Packers remain a shell of their former selves. Injuries have decimated the defense, and on offense, Rodgers has struggled to find a replacement for top WR Davante Adams. While rookie Christian Watson has emerged as a breakout star in the past few games, it may be too little too late, as the Packers are on pace for a losing season.

Still, if you think the Packers are underperforming, take one look at their opponent tonight: the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Los Angeles Rams. Many pegged the Rams to contend for another Super Bowl title before the season. However, that quickly changed once the Rams dropped multiple key games and lost WR Cooper Kupp, QB Matt Stafford, and DE Aaron Donald to injuries. Yet, even before the injuries, the Rams struggled to replace crucial contributors to their Super Bowl run, notably LB Von Miller, T Andrew Whitworth, and WR Odell Beckham Jr. 

As a result, at 4-9, the Rams will take the field against the Packers tonight in Lambeau with Baker Mayfield under center and taking over the starting QB duties. Two weeks ago, Mayfield had a whirlwind of a week. He was cut by the Carolina Panthers after losing the starting job and the backup duties and found himself suiting up for the Rams 72 hours later. It was vintage Mayfield again as he led the Rams to an improbable comeback against the Raiders on Thursday night football. Down 16-3 late in the 4th quarter, Mayfield engineered two impressive drives to give the Rams the win.

Tonight, though, the Rams find themselves as 7.5-point underdogs. It may seem like a high number, given both teams’ failures this season, but I do not think it is high enough. The Packers benefit from one of the best home-field advantages in Lambeau, and the freezing cold temperatures come kickoff should give Green Bay the edge over the warm weather Rams. Coming off a bye, the Packers will be more than well-rested and the extra time allowed Rodgers to get healthier after revealing he has been playing in pain all season. It’s quite a lot of points to lay, but I’m willing to do it.

Pick: Packers -7.5

Under 39.5