To round out our series of best futures bets, we have which QB will lead the league in passing TDs.
We have the odds below (courtesy of Action Network & Caesars Sportsbook), along with our best bets and sleeper picks. Get those wagers ready!
Tom Brady +500
Pat Mahomes +600
Matt Stafford +700
Justin Herbert +800
Aaron Rodgers +850
Josh Allen +1000
Joe Burrow +1100
Dak Prescott +1200
Russell Wilson +1200
Derek Carr +1500
Kirk Cousins +1800
Matt Ryan +2000
Deshaun Watson +2500
Kyler Murray +3000
Trevor Lawrence +3000
Mac Jones +3000
Carson Wentz +3000
Ryan Tannehill +3500
Jameis Winston +3500
Jared Goff +4000
Zach Wilson +4000
Jalen Hurts +5000
Daniel Jones +5000
Lamar Jackson +5000
Justin Fields +5000
Davis Mills +5000
Trey Lance +5000
Baker Mayfield +5000
Marcus Mariota +6000
Mitch Trubisky +8000
Drew Lock +8000
Best Bets
Tom Brady
This is a given. He may be the oldest QB in the NFL, but Brady still managed to lead the league in passing yards and TDs in 2021. After a short-lived retirement, Brady returns this season looking for another Super Bowl title. However, Brady will be without several of his key receivers this season. Antonio Brown walked out on the team infamously last year, Rob Gronkowski retired, and Chris Godwin is still rehabbing after tearing his ACL. Nonetheless, this is the GOAT, and he still has the reliable Mike Evans and now Julio Jones. Brady can elevate the talent around him, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t rank at the top of the league in TDs passes.
Matt Stafford
The Super Bowl champion finished last season ranked 2nd in TD passes with 41 – two shy of Tom Brady. Stafford’s chemistry with top receiver Cooper Kupp is undeniable, and now he has former Bears wideout Allen Robinson in his arsenal. The Rams are a scoring machine, and Stafford should have no difficulty hooking up with his receivers in the endzone this season. And with Tom Brady losing a few of his top scorers in the offseason, Stafford may finally elapse the GOAT as the leader in passing TDs.
Justin Herbert
Herbert has no shortage of weapons on the Chargers offense. Between WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, RB Austin Ekeler, and TE Gerald Everett, Herbert has plenty of options. Last season, the former Oregon product compiled 38 TDs and 5014 yards. All indications point to him replicating or bettering those numbers this season, especially with high expectations to win the AFC West. Only Tom Brady and Matt Stafford threw more TDs than Herbert last year. With strong competition in their division, expect the Chargers to rank at the league’s top in offensive plays run per game. That should give Herbert ample opportunities to rack up the TD numbers.
Sleepers
Joe Burrow
Burrow finished 8th in the league in TDs last season, and you can bet that number will only increase. After all, Burrow’s first full season as a starter since his rookie campaign was cut short by an injury. This season, Burrow has a revamped offensive line with the new additions of Ted Karras, Alex Cappa, and La’el Collins. Don’t forget, Burrow led the NFL in QB sacks last season. With an upgrade in protection, Burrow should find himself more comfortable in the pocket with more time to connect with his receivers. There are plenty of TD opportunities between Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.
Derek Carr
Even though Carr finished the 2021 season with just 23 TDs, he did so without a clearcut No. 1 receiver and was forced to play multiple contests without TE Darren Waller. Now, Carr gets a healthy Waller, and most importantly, he reunites with his college roommate WR Davante Adams. The former Packers wideout is a TD machine and gives Carr the deep threat he was missing last season. Add that new head coach Josh McDaniels has worked wonders in New England with Tom Brady and Mac Jones, and Carr should rank near the top in passing TDs this season.
Russell Wilson
Many have the misconception that Wilson tends to run more than pass. After years of poor play from his offensive line in Seattle, Wilson gets a much-needed upgrade in Denver. He also is surrounded by talented WRs Cortland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, who can pose threats to opposing defenses. Wilson is a former MVP, and it was just two years ago that he tied for 2nd in TDs with 40. He’s someone to keep an eye on and holds some excellent value for bettors.
