It was perhaps the wildest weekend of football, with all four games coming down to the final seconds to decide the ultimate winner. A week after 5 of 6 favorites covered in the NFL Wild Card Round, this past weekend saw 3 of 4 underdogs winning outright while the Bills were only :13 seconds from making it a perfect 4.
One thing is for sure, there are far and few football fans who anticipated a Conference Championship Round without the likes of Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady. Furthermore, out of all 4 division winners, many would not have pegged the Bengals as 1 of the 2 teams to represent the AFC. Additionally, who could have predicted a battle in LA between the Rams and Niners, the latter barely snuck into the playoffs, needing to overcome a 17-0 deficit and an overtime in the final game of the regular season against the same team.
If this past weekend indicated how the Conference Championships will play out, we are indeed in for quite the ride. So who do we like for the games on Sunday? Here are our picks:
Bengals +7 over Chiefs
On my podcast last week, I mentioned that even though I picked the Bills to advance to the Super Bowl for the AFC, I could see the Bengals claiming the title of Conference Champions if they defeated the Titans. My reasoning aligns with what happened on Sunday night. The Bills and the Chiefs engaged in a legendary shootout that saw multiple score changes in the final two minutes, ultimately leading to Kansas City winning in OT. Now, after that exhilarating yet draining affair, it would not surprise me to see the Chiefs fall flat when they host the Bengals on Sunday.
When we last saw these two squads face off against each other, we witnessed another offensive show as the Bengals emerged victorious 34-31 on their home turf to clinch the AFC North. QB Joe Burrow had an epic day, throwing for 446 yards and 4 TDs – 3 of which were to WR Ja’Marr Chase, who accumulated 266 yards of his own. QB Patrick Mahomes turned in a pedestrian outing by this standard on the Chiefs’ end, throwing for 259 yards and 2 TDs.
Now, the home-field advantage lies in KC’s favor this weekend as the Bengals will travel to Arrowhead to compete in their first AFC Championship game since 1989. You can bet Burrow, Chase, and the rest of the Bengals squad will have momentum on their side, knowing the implications of clinching a Super Bowl appearance.
On the opposite side, the Chiefs are all too familiar with hosting another Conference Championship. It is their 4th in just as many years, and they will be looking for their 3rd straight Super Bowl appearance.
There’s no question this game should be a high-scoring shootout between two of the best offensive teams in the league. However, we could see KC fall flat, as I mentioned above. Sure, it is never wise to discount Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid, but if there was a feisty team to do so, it is the Bengals. Burrow plays with ice in his veins and has been unfazed by the competition since his entrance into the league last season. I love the Bengals to cover the 7 points in this spot, and I’m confident enough to bet on them to secure the outright upset. There is no question it will be an uphill battle, but if there is one team I can benefit from the doubt, it is this squad. Bengals 30, Chiefs 27.
Niners +3.5 over Rams
It’s challenging to defeat a division rival twice in a season. It’s even more difficult to overcome the same team thrice. However, the 49ers have had the edge over the Rams in recent years. In their last 6 head-to-head matchups, San Francisco has won all 6 meetings, including a thrilling victory in Week 18 this season. In that contest, the 49ers rallied from trailing 17-0 to defeat their rival 27-24 in OT. The win propelled San Francisco into the playoffs, where they upset the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round and the Packers in Green Bay this past Saturday. It wasn’t a pretty victory, as the Niners’ special teams saved the day with a blocked field goal and a blocked punt return for a TD. Still, San Francisco took down the overall No. 1 seed 13-10.
In their Divisional Round matchup, the Rams were explosive in the first half of the game against the defending Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. However, Los Angeles squandered a 27-3 point lead due to 4 turnovers and allowed Tampa Bay to eventually tie up the game with under 2 minutes to play. Fortunately, blown coverage enabled QB Matt Stafford to hook up with the reliable Cooper Kupp downfield and set the Rams up for the game-winning field goal courtesy of Pro-Bowler Matt Gay. Now, even though the win secured Los Angeles home-field advantage, they must do so against the team they have struggled with the most.
Not much has changed roster-wise since these two teams last met on January 9th. However, it is hard to discount that the Niners have had the Rams number in recent years when analyzing this matchup. Yes, this game will be held at SoFi Stadium. Nevertheless, with San Francisco less than an hour plane ride away, you can be sure the arena will be split with both Rams and Niners loyalists.
The Rams are the superior team on paper, especially on the offensive front. Yet, Jimmy Garoppolo has proven he can win in these pivotal situations – even if it isn’t in the best fashion. Additionally, the Niners’ defense is far better than the Cowboys and the Bucs, both in the secondary and the front 7. You can expect Nick Bosa and Fred Warner to pressure Stafford and force him to get rid of the ball early.
I expect this game to be close, but in the end, the Niners should prevail and defeat their rival for the third time this season. San Francisco excels at ball control, and behind Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel, the offense will rely on the run game to elongate drives and own the time of possession battle. The less Stafford and company are on the field, the better for the Niners. As long as Jimmy G. remains mistake-free and limits the turnovers, this should be a win for the visiting underdogs. I am taking the Niners Moneyline, but if you aren’t as confident, take the 3.5 points for them to cover if the game comes down to a field goal. Niners 24, Rams 23.
