NBA Finals Game 5
Boston (+4) @ Golden State
So far, the Zig-Zag theory has worked quite well for us in our NBA Finals bets. However, all good things must eventually end, and this is where we will stray from betting the team that previously lost to bounce back to win.
In Game 4, the Warriors came from behind to win 107-97 in front of a hostile Boston crowd. Steph Curry solidified his campaign for Finals MVP as the 3x NBA Champion posted a double-double with 43 points and 10 assists. It was a rough night for Boston on the boards as the C’s were outrebounded 55-42, which allowed Golden State to run up the pace in the game, winning the battle in transition.
Now, we head to Game 5, back in the Bay Area, where the Warriors have just one loss this entire postseason. That defeat came at the hands of the Celtics in Game 1. Boston went on an improbable 17-0 run at the end of the 4th to cap off a double-digit deficit, come back and steal the victory away from the home crowd. Golden State responded in Game 2, but ultimately dropped Game 3 at the TD Garden.
So what makes us like the Warriors tonight and abandon our strategy? It is simply the homecourt advantage of it all and the spectacular play by Curry. No one ignites the Chase Center crowd more than when Curry hits a resounding 3, and you can bet he will continue his consistency from the field this NBA Finals and put up a 30+ point outing. Klay Thompson has struggled to capture that same consistency, but he has shown improvement in the previous 2 games and is on the verge of breaking out of his shell at any moment. Andrew Wiggins has been quiet this Finals, but he finished Game 4 with a +20 in the +/- column and can sink the clutch shot if needed.
While the Celtics do pose a threat to take a 3-2 series lead, especially knowing they could clinch the Championship on their homecourt in Game 6, I think Golden State holds the momentum heading into this matchup. Curry is the heart and soul of the Warriors, and when he gets the crowd going, the rest of the Golden State squad feeds off of his energy. That said, we like the Warriors to turn in a solid offensive effort. That is why we like the total of 211 to go Over tonight as well.
However, Boston has covered well on the road, going 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games away from the TD Garden. Golden State, meanwhile, loves playing as a favorite, with a 5-1 ATS mark the last 6 times they have been favored. (Trends courtesy of Oddsshark).
Still, we are sticking with the Warriors tonight and the Over. Warriors win and cover.