NBA Finals Game 3 Picks

06 / 07 / 2022 By Ally Mielnicki

Blog Home | All Posts

Few predicted the Boston Celtics would storm into the Bay Area and steal Game 1 away from the Warriors on their home court. Especially after just completing a hard-fought, grueling 7-game series against the Heat and needing to travel across the country on short rest. It appeared as if Golden State was in command of Game 1 and on their way to a victory until the Celtics went on an unstoppable 17-0 run late in the 4th quarter to seal the win. Golden State, however, stepped up in Game 3 by outscoring the Celtics 35-14 in the 3rd quarter to even the series.

Now, with the series knotted at 1 game apiece, the two teams head to the Northeast to play 3 games in the Boston Garden. Unlike the previous rounds, the Finals feature a 2-3-2 homecourt format. In theory, the Celtics could avoid traveling back to the Bay if they somehow win the next 3 games. We will likely see a 6 or 7-game series.

After being favored for the first two games at home, the Warriors find themselves as 3.5 underdogs in Game 3. The public seems to side with Golden State as there is a 63-37 percent consensus backing the Warriors to cover, according to Oddsshark. The total currently sits at 212.5, with the majority of the public backing the Over.

If you are looking for betting trends, the Warriors have not been a sure bet to cover on the road, as they are 1-5 ATS away from the Chase Center in their last 6 games. They have also struggled against Boston, posting a 1-5-1 ATS record in their previous 7 games against the Celtics. (All trends courtesy of Oddsshark). The Warriors happen to also be 1-3 in Game 3s in the NBA Finals since its 2015 run.

It may be tempting to jump on the Golden State bandwagon, but if one thing has been a hot play, it is taking the zigzag theory – which is taking the team that previously lost/didn’t cover the spread to bounce back and win or cover the spread. That’s one of the reasons I’m taking the Celtics to win and cover the spread.

Besides Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, no other starter reached double-digits in points scored in Game 2. In fact, Al Horford, Robert Williams, and Marcus Smart all scored only 2 points each. You can be sure they won’t repeat that lackluster scoring effort. Expect more efficiency from the field and better defense guarding the 3-point line. The Celtics will look to slow the pace and force more inside shots than from the perimeter. That’s why I am also taking the Under. If Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are limited from the 3, the Warriors will need to adjust their approach, which has not always been reliable.

I love betting against the public, so the fact I am taking the less popular sides of the spread and the total is music to my ears.

Celtics -3.5
Under 212.5

Download the ZenSports apps