Monday Night Football Week 1

Who: Broncos at Seahawks

Where: Lumen Stadium, Seattle, WA

When: Monday, September 12, 8:15 pm ET

Odds

Moneyline: Broncos -270, Seahawks +220

Spread: Broncos -6.5

Total: 44.5 o/u

The Broncos travel to Seattle this Monday night with a familiar face to all Seahawks fans. In one of the most talked about trades of the offseason, Denver acquired Russell Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick from Seattle in exchange for Drew Lock, Shelby Harris, Noah Fant, Denver’s first- and second-rounders in 2022 and 2023, as well as a 2022 fifth-rounder.

Wilson was disgruntled after back-to-back mediocre seasons in Seattle, and for a good reason. The Seahawks failed to provide him with ample protection on the offensive line, and the defense has been regressing for multiple seasons. WR DK Metcalf proved to have some issues on the field, starting several fights and was ejected in a matchup against the Packers. It didn’t take long for Wilson to seek a trade.

Now, with Denver, Wilson finds himself in an optimal position to get back to his winning ways and make a run at a Super Bowl title. Already aligned with one of the top defenses in the league, Wilson also has plenty of weapons on offense with WRs Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, along with RBs Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III. For a team that struggled to put up points on the board last year, they should have no issues this season with Wilson at the helm.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are in a rebuilding phase. Though they didn’t draft a QB in the draft this past April, all indications point that Seattle will indeed draft a QB this year when the class is much deeper and more talented. In the meantime, the Seahawks will employ journeyman Geno Smith to take over under center. Smith filled in for Wilson when he had to miss time with a finger injury last season, and while he played decently, the team dropped 3 of the four games. Now, Smith will have to counter a Denver defense that ranked 3rd in the league in 2021 in the least points allowed per game and 8th in the least amount of yards allowed per game. 

It will be an uphill battle for Smith. Fortunately, the Seahawks have a dynamic run game to fall back on if Smith struggles. Rashaad Penny ended his 2021 campaign on a high note and will take the reins as the No. 1 back after Chris Carson retired. The Seahawks also drafted highly-touted RB Kenneth Walker III in the second round of the draft and have high hopes for his talent. Walker, though, will, in all likelihood, miss this contest with an injury.

The public is siding with the Broncos as heavy road favorites, and while I hate siding with the majority and dislike laying that many points to a home team, I am going to back Denver. Wilson may start slow as he develops chemistry with his new receivers, but he should be able to lean on the tandem of Williams/Gordon to take advantage of Seattle’s putrid run defense. Seattle will also struggle to move the chains against one of the top defenses in the league, and that’s why I can see a low total in this affair. With two teams relying heavily on their run games, I’m going to side with the Under as well.

I may regret siding with the public on this one, but I can’t back Geno Smith against a top defense in this case. The Broncos comfortably cover and win.

Pick: Broncos -6.5

Under 44.5