My Giants were on a bye, so I didn’t have to stress this week. However, the other New York team, the Jets, upset the Bills, and the Packers lost again. The Bucs may have saved their season with a late comeback win against the Rams, and the Raiders proved they are one of the worst teams in the league.

How I fared in my picks

Overall, I had a sub-.500 week at 5-7 ATS. We had some bad beats, though. The Raiders (-1.5) failed to score in the second half and blew a 10-point lead, and the Falcons may have pulled off the win if their defense didn’t fumble at the end. 

Betting Results

• Underdogs won the week at 4-8.
• There were a few upsets. The Jets (+13.5) pulled off the outright upset over the Bills, and the Lions (+3.5) defeated the Packers 15-9. The Jaguars won as +1.5 home underdogs, and the Seahawks won as +1.5 road underdogs.

Three things that surprised me the most

The Jets upset the Bills

I thought Buffalo would have won this game by halftime, but the Jets pulled off the improbable upset thanks to a poor outing from Josh Allen. As double-digit home underdogs, Zach Wilson had his best game of the season, and the Jets’ defense forced Allen to toss two critical interceptions. There was question on the game’s last play that could have been called pass interference, but the Jets deserved the win. I won’t go so far as to declare the team a lock for the playoffs, but they certainly are establishing themselves as disruptors. 

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals

I don’t want to buy how legitimately good the Seahawks are as a football team. After yesterday’s win against the Cardinals, I am finally ready to admit they are a top-five team in the NFC. Pete Carroll has done a fantastic job at the helm and should be in the running for Coach of the Year. Kenneth Walker has also emerged as the frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Tariq Woolen should be a finalist for Defensive Rookie of the Year. This team has a bright future ahead.

Justin Fields can run

Yes, I know Fields is a mobile QB, but who would have thought he would rush for 178 yards in yesterday’s loss to the Dolphins. I still don’t project Fields as a long-term answer for the Bears and question his sustainability in the NFL, but he can keep the Bears in the game when he relies on his legs over his arms. That won’t translate against better defensive units, but it gives the Bears some hope.

Other things that surprised me

• The Falcons blew a 10-point lead – Despite the Chargers missing Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Rashawn Slater, and Joey Bosa, the Falcons lost at home. To add insult to injury, Ta’Quon Graham recovered a Chargers fumble on LA’s eventual go-ahead win, but he fumbled while running with the ball down the field. That allowed the Chargers to set up a game-winning field goal. Tough break.
• Joe Mixon scores 5 TDs – Great day if you were a Joe Mixon fantasy owner, especially since he has not had the best season. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd owners must be shaking their heads.
• Texans hung in the game with the Eagles – I was kicking myself for not siding with the Texans since I usually love taking home underdogs in primetime games. Even with the inept Davis Mills, the Texans battled throughout the game, but some costly interceptions ended any chance of a rally. I still think the Eagles are a tad bit overrated and have benefitted from a weak schedule. No denying, however, they are the team to beat in the NFC unless proven otherwise. 

Three things that did not surprise me

Derek Carr couldn’t lead the Raiders to score in the second half

The Raiders over the Jaguars was one of my top plays yesterday, and for 30 minutes, it appeared I was on the right side. However, it was a completely different game once the second half kicked off. The Jaguars scored 17 unanswered points en route to a 27-20 victory. While statistically, Carr had an efficient day, throwing for 259 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, the Raiders punted on three consecutive drives in the second half before turning the ball over on downs and fumbling in their final possession. Davante Adams had a stellar day with ten catches for 146 yards, but his talent is wasted on a subpar team. Carr will never lead this team to the Super Bowl. Don’t be surprised if Josh McDaniels moves on to another QB next season. 

The Packers lost again

The Lions over the Packers was my top play of the weekend. Given how much Green Bay has struggled on offense, I pegged the Lions to pull off the upset at home. It was the right call too. The Lions, known to have perhaps the worst defensive unit in the league, allowed only nine points to the Packers on their way to a 15-9 victory. It was another disappointing outing for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense. It makes you wonder whether this lack of production stems more from the coaching or the front office’s failure to fill the void left by Davante Adams. Whatever the case, the Packers have all but played their way out of playoff contention. There must be a more significant reason why the team stayed silent at the trade deadline. Expect this team to undergo major changes in the offseason. 

The Bucs beat the Rams

It was an ugly game, but Tom Brady led the Bucs to victory with less than a minute to go. I picked the Bucs to beat the Rams, knowing LA’s offense is just as inept this season as Tampa’s. Not only that, the loss to the Rams in the NFC Divisional game last season was fresh in the minds of many players still on Tampa’s roster. It was a much-needed win for the Bucs, who now find themselves at the top of their division. However, the Rams’ playoff hopes are starting to become a faint possibility.

Other non-surprises for me

• The Titans nearly upset the Chiefs – Despite a measly 80 passing yards from rookie QB Malik Willis, who is not ready to be a full-time NFL starter. I knew Derrick Henry would pound the ball on the ground, but still coming within a field goal was quite remarkable, given Patrick Mahomes threw 68 attempts in the contest. The Titans are an underrated squad.
• The Bengals proved they are still an offensive machine – After Ja’Marr Chase went down, many wrote the Bengals’ season off, especially after their miserable Halloween loss to the Browns. Yesterday, behind Joe Mixon’s five touchdowns, the Bengals torched the Panthers, who many presumed were an up-and-coming team. Instead, Baker Mayfield had to come into the game to accumulate garbage time scores. Otherwise, it was a classic blowout.
• Davante Adams bounced back – A week after frustrating fantasy owners like myself with a one-catch showing, Adams blew up against the Jaguars with 146 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, he is on the Raiders, and his playoff hopes are nonexistent at this point.

Three overreactions I’m hearing

• The Bucs are back – It was vintage Tom Brady to lead the Bucs on a game-winning TD drive, but it was an ugly 59 minutes prior. The Bucs benefitted from a Rams offense that was also struggling and could limit Matt Stafford and co. to only 13 yards. Against more formidable opponents, it will be hard-pressed for the Bucs to hang in games when facing top-ranked offenses. Cade Otton has been a savior for the Bucs, especially in games like yesterday when Mike Evans couldn’t haul in the simplest of passes.
• Justin Fields is the best QB from the 2021 class – Fields has been impressive his past three games, but he won’t be able to defeat premier teams with only his legs consistently. Fields ran for 173 yards with a TD compared to throwing for only 123 yards on 17 completions with three TDs in Sunday’s contest – that equals 4.4 yards per pass. However, remember everyone was singing Trevor Lawrence’s praises following the Jaguars’ early season success, and that has since drastically waned. It’s one thing to take advantage of a Miami defense that ranks at the bottom of the league, but let’s not forget Zach Wilson defeated the top-ranked Bills yesterday.
• The Jets will make the playoffs – Not buying it. Especially since I believe the Jets will lose three of their next four games to the Patriots, Vikings, and Bills in Buffalo. The Jets have been a nice story, but yesterday’s game was more about Josh Allen’s failings and mistakes than what the Jets did right. Despite sitting in second place in the AFC East, there is still an excellent case to be made that the Jets are still the worst team in their division behind the Dolphins and Patriots. It’s a promising season for the Jets, but they will ultimately fall short. It would be different if Breece Hall were not injured. 

Three reactions that are not overreactions I’m hearing

• The Packers will not make the playoffs – This one has been brewing for weeks, but after a 15-9 loss to the one-win Lions, it is safe to say that the Packers’ season is done. It will be debated whether the Packers’ inaction at the trade deadline ultimately doomed their year, but this team has more issues with it than just the receiving corps. Don’t be surprised if the team parts ways with head coach Matt LeFleur at the end of the season.
• The Seahawks are the best team in the NFC West- With all due respect to the 49ers, who were on a bye, there is no question that the Seahawks have emerged as the team to beat. Seattle defeated the ailing Cardinals on the road as underdogs yesterday and completely shut down Kyler Murray. Give Geno Smith all the credit he deserves and Peter Carroll for the laudable job he has done as head coach. The front office, too, deserves praise for drafting prize rookies Kenneth Walker and Tariq Woolen in last April’s draft. Russell who?
• Josh Allen will not win MVP – Allen warrants much blame following the Bills’ loss to the surging Jets yesterday. Allen tossed two costly interceptions and completed 18-for-34 passing attempts with no touchdowns. While he led the team in rushing with 86 yards, it was not enough, and he was outplayed by Zach Wilson, who turned in his first impressive outing this season. With Tua Tagovailoa’s stock rising and Jalen Hurts leading the Eagles to an undefeated season, Allen is no longer the frontrunner.