Tough week for my Giants. Two costly fumbled punts, and a lack of offense doomed them in Seattle. However, we have a bye week to straighten the ship this week!

Around the league, the Cowboys blew out the Bears, The 49ers continued their dominance of the Rams, and Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady still can’t find a way to win.

Let’s recap the week.

How I fared in my picks

Overall, I had a terrible week at 5-9 ATS – my worst week yet. That’s back-to-back losing weeks. We had some bad beats, though. Buffalo (-11) allowed a garbage time TD, and the Lions (+3.5) failed to score in the second half and blew a 10-point lead. 

Betting Results

• Favorites won the week at 8-6.
• There were very few upsets. Washington (+3.5) scored a last-second TD to beat the Colts, and the Broncos (+3.5) won in London.

Three things that surprised me the most

My Giants performed miserably

It was a tough watch. The Giants couldn’t generate any offense in the run or passing game. Daniel Jones had all of 17 passing yards in the first half. It was odd they stuck with the run game for as long as they did without allowing Jones to throw down the field until the second half. However, the worst was Richie James fumbled two punts deep in Giants territory, allowing the Seahawks to pull away. The most costly occurred late in the 4th, with the Giants trailing 20-13. Had James not fumbled, the Giants would have had the opportunity to engineer another 4ht quarter comeback. That was quelled as soon as Seattle converted the turnover into a touchdown. A loss was due, but I hate to admit this allows the “experts” to downplay my team’s success this season. A bye week has arrived just in time. 

The Texans refused to bench Davis Mills

I need help understanding this one. The Texans’ offense was abysmal against a mediocre Titans team that was starting their rookie QB. Mills went 17-for-29 for 152 yards – that’s 5.2 yards per pass and threw one TD and one INT. If the Texans are tanking to land Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud, they are doing a great job. With the trade deadline tomorrow, we will see if they decide to part ways with playmakers such as Brandin Cooks, whose talent is wasting away in Houston. Either way, Mills will be a backup next season.

The Cardinals are still struggling even with the return of DeAndre Hopkins

I should have trusted my instinct and stuck with the Vikings, but I switched my pick to the Cardinals. Even though the Cardinals defeated the Saints on Thursday night football the prior week, they were much aided by Andy Dalton’s two pick-sixes and endzone INT. Yesterday, Arizona’s offense reverted to mediocrity. The run game was nonexistent, and Murray tossed two costly interceptions in the second half. The Vikings gave the Cardinals every chance to win, but Arizona’s mistakes were too much to overcome, including a fumbled punt by Greg Dortch. Arizona may have already kissed its playoff chances goodbye at 3-5 and in last place in the NFC West. 

Other things that surprised me

• Taylor Heinicke’s game-winning TD drive – It was a tough day for both the Colts’ and Commanders’ offenses, but Heinicke led Washington on a nine-play, 89-yard game-winning drive late in the 4th quarter. In two starts, Heinicke is 2-0 and has inserted his team back in the playoff picture. I knew Heinicke would provide a spark, but he has done more in two games than Carson Wentz has all season. Washington found their QB.
• The Panthers are better without Mayfield, McCaffrey & Rhule – It was shocking when Carolina upset the Bucs, but to pull off a consecutive win against the Falcons would have propelled the Panthers right back into the race for the NFC South. However, an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on DJ Moore after scoring what should have been the game-winning TD resulted in a missed extra point, sending the game into OT. The Falcons eventually kicked a FG to win the game, but there’s no question that PJ Walker has the Panthers rolling. Maybe this team isn’t tanking after all.
• The Eagles are 7-0 – I thought the Steelers could cover the double-digit point spread, but even though they didn’t, I knew the Eagles would remain undefeated. AJ Brown single-handedly defeated Pittsburgh, accounting for three TDs in the contest. It is clear Brown and Jalen Hurts have fantastic chemistry. With an easy schedule the remainder of the way, this team has a shot at going 17-0.

Three things that did not surprise me

The 49ers continued their dominance over the Rams

It may have seemed close in the first half, but San Francisco again owned the Rams with their 31-14 victory. Christian McCaffrey had quite the performance completing the triple-crown for TDs. He became the 11th player in NFL history to throw, catch, and run for a TD in a game. It was another subpar showing for the Rams, as they look less like defending Super Bowl champions every week. Fortunately, the Rams do not have to face the 49ers for the rest of the regular season. The bad news? The Rams have a demanding schedule ahead of them, with games against the Bucs, Chiefs, Seahawks, Packers, and Chargers. 

The Jets offense sorely missed Breece Hall

Besides a late TD, Zach Wilson struggled against the Patriots, tossing three INTs and completing less than 50 percent of his passing attempts. The Jets’ running game also took a massive hit, accumulating only 51 yards for the entire game. The Jets were a nice story to begin the year, but season-ending injuries to Hall and G Alijah Vera-Tucker are too much to overcome. Back to the bottom of the AFC East for the Jets.

Tony Pollard is the better RB than Ezekial Elliott

Ever since Elliott held out the entire Cowboys training camp for a new contract a few seasons ago, he has never been the same dynamic back when he exploded onto the scene his rookie year. Tony Pollard has quietly waited his turn and proved just how dominant he could be in yesterday’s win against the Bears, running for 131 yards on 14 carries with three TDs. If Pollard keeps up this production, the Cowboys could make Elliott expandable.

Other non-surprises for me

• The Raiders were shut out – I loved the Saints to win and cover yesterday, but the real story was how poorly Las Vegas performed. Derek Carr was replaced in the 4th quarter by Jarrett Stidham after throwing a measly 101 yards with an INT. Davante Adams caught only one pass for three yards, and the team failed to convert a fake punt. This Raiders team was way overhyped. 
• The Packers had no chance against the Bills – Yes, a garbage time TD allowed the Packers to cover the 11-point spread, but Green Bay was never in the game. It was over by halftime, and the Packers wasted a stellar game from Aaron Jones. It’s hard to see this team rebounding this season.
• Tua is great – I was surprised before his injury how much Tua has grown, but he turned in another remarkable performance yesterday, throwing for 382 yards and 3 TDs. His chemistry with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is impeccable, and he should have the Dolphins in the playoffs by the end of the year.

Three overreactions I’m hearing

• The Seahawks will win the NFC West – No, this division is for the 49ers, the superior team. The Seahawks are a nice story and have been fortunate with some lucky wins, but their schedule will catch up with them with upcoming games against the Cardinals, Bucs, Rams, Chiefs, and 49ers. Pete Carroll has proven he can win without Russell Wilson, but this team is not a division winner at these this year.
• The Giants are pretenders – I’ll admit, we played terribly yesterday, but Seattle is a challenging venue for opponents across the league. Two fumbled punts hurt us critically, and the run and passing game were nonexistent. Every team is due for a bad game. This was ours.
• Mac Jones is safe as the Patriots QB – Jones had a better day than his mishap on Monday night football, but he struggled for most of the first half before turning things around. Jones will keep hearing the clamoring for Bailey Zappe to take over, so one more poor outing could jeopardize his starting gig.

Three reactions that are not overreactions I’m hearing

• The Falcons will win the NFC South – Why not? They had a close call against the Panthers yesterday but have a relatively easy schedule coming up with games against the Bears, Commanders, and Steelers. If the Bucs continue to struggle, this young team can find itself in the postseason.
• Aaron Rodgers & Tom Brady will miss the playoffs – This one is becoming more apparent every weekend. Neither can beat teams inferior or superior to them or win at home or on the road. Two legends will fall short of the postseason.
• Tua will win MVP – Again, why not? Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen have had phenomenal years, but Tua has shown his importance to his team in the two games since returning from injury. What’s more valuable than that?