Well, my NY Giants are 6-1! Even when I saw the public bet heavily on my Giants at +3, I was concerned it would be a trap game. However, Vegas can be wrong sometimes, and fortunately, my team once again proved it continues to get disrespected.

It was another crazy week. The Bucs and Packers lost to two of the worst teams in the league, Christian McCaffrey did little to aid his new team, and the Seahawks are in first place in the West! Let’s recap.

How I fared in my picks

Overall, I had a terrible week at 5-8 ATS. It was my first losing week all year. You can’t win them all. The Bucs let me down as well as the Lions (+7.5) and Colts (+3.5), two of my favorite bets of the week. 

Betting Results

• It was split down the middle, with underdogs covering 7-6 ATS.
• The Panthers (+13) pulled off the biggest upset, while the Cowboys (-7.5) were the largest favorite to cover.

Three things that surprised me the most

The Bucs were embarrassed by the Panthers

After trading WR Robbie Anderson and RB Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers indicated they were tanking for the No. 1 pick in April. The Bucs overlooked this as Tampa Bay dropped another embarrassing defeat as a double-digit favorite. Carolina pulled out a 21-3 thrashing of Tampa behind former XFL QB PJ Walker. Tom Brady was forced to throw 49 attempts in the contest but still failed to connect with any of his receivers in the endzone. RB Leonard Fournette accumulated a measly 19 yards on the ground, and the defense could not force any turnovers. Now at 3-4, the Bucs continue to trend in the wrong direction. There’s plenty of blame to go around as well. Head coach Todd Bowles appears to be way over his head, and Brady fluctuates from playing distracted at times to overly frustrated. Fortunately, the Bucs reside in the worst division in the NFC, so they may win by default as long as the Falcons come back down to earth and the Saints continue to lose. Still, if this team has expectations for a deep playoff run, they need to get their act together soon. There is no excuse for losing to a tanking team.

The 49ers’ defense was putrid

I should have thought better than to back the 49ers by ignoring the Christian McCaffrey hype. After all, the former Stanford RB was acquired barely 48 hours earlier, giving him little time to get comfortable with the offense. Rushing for 38 yards on eight carries and two catches for 24 yards is understandable. However, allowing the Kansas City offense to accumulate 44 points against arguably the best defensive unit in the NFC is unacceptable. Despite getting Nick Bosa and Jimmie Ward back from injury, San Francisco’s defense allowed Patrick Mahomes to throw for 423 yards with three TDs. One week after losing to Buffalo, I should have known the Chiefs would be amped up. I did not think the 49ers, however, would be a no-show.

The Seahawks are in first place in the NFC West

I pegged the Seahawks to cover the +5.5 spread against the Chargers, but I did not foresee the upset. Not only that, I was confident they would stay within their win total projection of five! Now, they sit in first place in the NFC West! Give Pete Carroll all the credit for engineering this team to a 4-3 season thus far when most experts expected the ‘Hawks to spend the next few years in rebuild mode. Thanks to a strong rookie class featuring RB Kenneth Walker, CB Tariq Woolen, and CB Coby Bryant, this Seahawks squad has been a disrupter all season, defeating the likes of projected playoff contenders such as the Cardinals, Broncos, and Chargers. Don’t sleep on Seattle.

Other things that surprised me

• The Lions are lost on offense – Even though Detroit was missing DJ Chark and D’Andre Swift, I thought the Lions would still put up enough points to cover against the Cowboys. Thanks to a goal-line fumble and multiple Jared Goff INTs, the Lions gave Dak Prescott an easy welcome back. I had high hopes for this team, but now it looks like they will have another top-five draft pick in April.
• Matt Ryan went back to being terrible – Coming off back-to-back wins, I thought the Colts would give their division rival a battle in a rematch on Sunday. Yet, Matt Ryan proved his brilliant performance last week was a mirage. He threw two costly INTs and three crucial sacks. With two losses now to the Titans, the AFC South may now be out of reach.
• The Texans are sticking with Davis Mills – I never bought into the Mills’ hype, and I’m wondering what the Texans think they are getting out of him. Mills is the only one holding the Texans back with an underrated offense. Dameon Pierce is a beast, and Brandin Cooks’ talent is wasting away. Draft a franchise QB in April. C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young would be a perfect fit.

Three things that did not surprise me

My Giants won!

As I mentioned above, I feared a trap game since Vegas made us an underdog to a 2-4 team. However, Daniel Jones continues to make massive strides and led the team on another 4th quarter comeback. It was quite impressive, given the Giants lost two starting offensive linemen, including rookie Evan Neal to injury, along with TE Daniel Bellinger. At 6-1, the Giants have a favorable schedule coming up, with games against the Seahawks and Texans on the horizon. In a weak NFC, the Giants are on their way to clinching a Wild Card berth. Brian Daboll deserves the Coach of the Year Award by far.

Washington won and covered

The Commanders’ +5.5 was one of my top picks of the week. I predicted the Commanders would rally behind Taylor Heinicke, who I believe is an upgrade over the beleaguered Carson Wentz. Still, the Commanders play in the toughest division in the league and will have to do a lot more for an outside chance at clinching a Wild Card. Their defense is still questionable, but Heinicke makes far fewer mistakes than Wentz and seems to have a greater rapport with WRs Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel. Washington could make some noise moving forward.

The Packers faltered again

Part of the reason I chose Washington was not just due to the QB change but also because the Packers’ season continues to spiral. Now, Allen Lazard is dealing with an injury, and Green Bay’s receiving corps is more depleted. Aaron Rodgers appears detached and frustrated, and it won’t get any easier with the Bills coming up on the schedule. You can bet Green Bay will be phoning the Jets about Elijah Moore and the Steelers about Chase Claypool. Even though Rodgers voiced his confidence in the team following the defeat, you know he needs as many reinforcements as possible. Keep an eye on Green Bay before the trade deadline.

Other non-surprises for me

• Josh Jacobs carves up Houston’s defense – Jacobs was one of my must-starts this week for fantasy. Opposing a Texans’ defense that had surrendered the most points to opposing RBs, Jacobs ran for 143 yards and 3 TDs. Beast mode. 
• DeAndre Hopkins elevates the Cardinals – Arizona is more likely to thank Andy Dalton for his two pick-6s and endzone INT than their offense for their Thursday night win. Still, it was clear Hopkins’ chemistry with Kyler Murray changed the dynamic of the Cardinals’ offensive drive. Luckily for Arizona, the West is wide open, so there is a chance for a playoff run at 3-4. Wins better come soon.
• Tua makes a difference in Miami – It was a scoreless second half, but Tua came out strong in his first start since suffering a scary head injury. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill combined for 160 receiving yards, and Tua connected with Raheem Mostert in the endzone for the Dolphins’ lone TD. The division title may be out of reach, but the Dolphins could surpass the surging Jets if they rekindle the offensive firepower they demonstrated before Tua’s injury.

Three overreactions I’m hearing

• The Seahawks will win the West – It’s a nice story, but not going to happen. San Francisco is much better than they have been playing in their consecutive losses, and Christian McCaffrey will sure up their offensive woes. Look out for the Cardinals, who now have DeAndre Hopkins back, and the Rams, who always seem to make a trade deadline move.
• Matt LaFleur will be fired if the Packers miss the postseason – I don’t think Green Bay will make the playoffs, but there is no way Green Bay will fire their head coach. After sticking with Mike McCarthy for all of those disappointing years, they will not give up on LaFleur. However, the Packers need to center their draft priorities on getting Aaron Rodgers help. They have not had a good track record since he took over in the draft.
• Dak is back – Prescott struggled most of the game against a terrible Detroit offense. The Cowboys snuck away with a win thanks to a goal-line fumble and two Jared Goff INTs. It won’t get easier.

Three reactions that are not overreactions I’m hearing

• Daniel Jones will be the Giants’ starter next season – Jones has surpassed expectations with little support on the offense this season. While a decimated receiving corps and an underperforming offensive line, Jones has still led the Giants to four game-winning drives and a 6-1 record. There’s no question that if the Giants clinch a playoff berth, they will at least slap a franchise tag on the deserving QB.
• The Bucs’ roster will be blown up next season – Don’t be surprised if Tampa decides to overhaul their lineup in the offseason, especially if they fail to make the playoffs. Tom Brady will likely retire, and the Bucs will want multiple draft picks to rebuild, which could lead to trades with some veteran names on the team. Disappointing for a team many considered a favorite to reach the Super Bowl.
• Ryan Tannehill will be the Titans QB next season – If the Titans win the AFC South, there is a strong possibility it will solidify Tannehill’s presence as the Titans’ starting QB. Give him credit for doing everything right, especially after his bitter response to Malik Willis getting drafted. AJ Brown may be on the Eagles, but Tannehill is finding ways to win.