My New York Giants won again! Not only did we defeat the last two MVPs in consecutive weeks (Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson), but we also beat both No. 1 seeds from last season (Titans and Packers). If that is not impressive, I don’t know what is. I could spend this entire blog talking about my team, but I’ll break down all the games from yesterday. Let’s recap the weekend.

How I fared in my picks

Overall, I have had a good but not great week thus far entering the Monday night matchup. I went 8-5 in my picks against the spread. We had a bad beat when the Jaguars blew a late lead to the Colts, and Jacob Eason threw a pick on the 3rd-and-goal for the Panthers. Still, a winning week is a winning week.

Betting Results

• It was split down the middle with favorites covering 7-6 ATS.
• The Jets (+7.5) and Steelers (+9.5) pulled off the biggest upsets while the Rams (-10.5) were the largest favorite to cover.

Three things that surprised me the most

The Falcons and Seahawks are currently playoff contenders

Who would have thought two teams I had pegged to tank this season would be sitting at 3-3 and tied for their division lead? The Falcons emerged with some notable wins, most recently against the 49ers yesterday, but they are a covering machine, going 6-0 ATS. They nearly upset the Bucs last weekend and came within a score of defeating the Rams in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Seahawks proved their Week 1 victory against Russell Wilson and the Broncos was no fluke. They made Kyler Murray look like a backup QB in yesterday’s contest, and Geno Smith has revitalized his career under Pete Carroll. Both teams traded away their franchise QBs in the offseason, and it appears it may have been for the better. 

Robert Saleh was correct to say he would keep receipts on Jets doubters

Since the Ravens blew out the Jets on opening weekend, they have put together a string of impressive wins over the Packers and Dolphins in back-to-back weeks. Rookie RB Breece Hall is emerging as a top candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year, while CB Sauce Gardner has already earned the title as a disrupter on defense and could win Defensive well Rookie of the Year. With the Dolphins sinking since Tua was injured, the Jets are beginning to climb up the AFC East and are in a prime position to compete for a Wild Card.

The Bucs are free-falling

Tom Brady voiced his frustrations by barking at his offensive line to “get it together” on the sideline. It was another frustrating outing for Brady and the Bucs, who look nothing like the Super Bowl Champions they were two seasons ago. While the defense has held up save for a blowout to Kansas City, the offense has struggled to score more than 20 points on multiple occasions this season. Yesterday should have been an easy win for Tampa Bay since the Steelers were missing their top three players in the secondary. Still, Mike Evans was nowhere to be found the majority of the game, and the Bucs cannot seem to find a TE that can come close to putting up the numbers of Rob Gronkowski in past years. The Bucs need to figure out their struggles soon. They are fortunate to play the worst team in the league, the Panthers, next week, but after that, it’s back-to-back contests against the Ravens and Rams. Time is running out. 

Other things that surprised me

• Mitch Trubisky plays the hero – I backed the Steelers +8.5, but when Kenny Pickett departed the game with an injury, I thought Trubisky would end up blowing the game for Pittsburgh. Instead, Trubisky was efficient, going 9-for-12 for 144 yards and a TD. He’s earned at least one more start.
• Matt Ryan drinks from the Fountain of Youth – This was a bad beat for me, as I had Jacksonville +1.5 as one of my top picks. It seemed like the Jaguars would complete the season sweep of the Colts until Matt Ryan engineered a game-winning drive with a 32-yard TD pass to Alec Pierce. The Colts have now won back-to-back games and appear to be righting the ship.
• The Packers were so bad Jordan Love made an appearance – Another one of my top plays was the Packers crushing the Jets, yet the opposite happened. Green Bay struggled to generate any offense at home and fell to the Jets 27-10. If Green Bay wants even a chance at making the postseason, they need to figure out their offense quickly. 

Three things that did not surprise me

My Giants won!

As I mentioned, the Giants have defeated the Packers and the Ravens in consecutive weeks, two presumed playoff locks. Trailing again entering the 4th quarter, two late turnovers by Lamar Jackson set up the Giants to seal the win. This is a different team than the Joe Judge and Pat Shurmur years. This Giants’ squad never gives up and always believes it can win – and now the fans do as well.

The Eagles are 5-0

I took the Eagles -6.5 over the Cowboys. While Dallas crept back into the game, it was never really close. Cooper Rush finally proved why he is a perennial backup QB, not a starter, throwing three INTs in the contest. I hate to say I whiffed on how good the Eagles would be, even saying they would go under their win total for the year, but Nick Sirianni is leading his team to lock up a No. 1 seed come playoffs. With an easy schedule for the rest of the season, it’s hard to pinpoint when Philly will lose.

Kyler Murray can’t win without Deandre Hopkins

I’ve never been a Kyler Murray fan, and I believe the Kyler Murray we have seen this season and at the end of last season is the actual player. It was another disastrous outing for Murray and the Cardinals, losing 19-9 to the Seahawks. Their lone TD was courtesy of a blocked punt by the special teams. The Cardinals better hope Hopkins will be the difference-maker when he returns Thursday night, or they will finish at the bottom of the NFC West.

Other non-surprises for me

• Breece Hall is a beast – I was high on Hall before the season and had him ranked near the top among fantasy RBs. I even got into a colorful debate about whether you should draft Hall or Javonte Williams, with me being the sole supporter of Hall. The rookie out of Iowa State is turning heads and is the reason for the offensive emergence of the Jets. Zach Wilson has been effective since his return, but Hall is carrying the team.
• The Bills defeated the Chiefs – This was one of my five best bets. It appeared the Chiefs would win at home for a while, but Josh Allen proved why he is great and led the Bills to a game-winning TD. Moreover, Buffalo sealed any chance of a KC comeback by intercepting Pat Mahomes on the final drive. This Bills team appears headed for the Super Bowl. 
• The Panthers are the worst team in the league – PJ Walker looked precisely like the XFL QB he was, and Christian McCaffrey is wasting his talent on a poorly run organization. This team will draft first in April. 

Three overreactions I’m hearing

• The Rams are back – No way. A 24-10 win against the worst team in the league hardly constitutes a reason to waive your defending champion towels. This team still struggles to put up points on the board consistently. Matt Stafford threw another pick six too. That can only happen against good teams. 
• The Dolphins are sinking quickly – This is still a good team, even without Tua. Three losses in a row don’t spell optimism, but with a healthy Teddy Bridgewater throwing to Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, it’s too early to give up on Miami. 
• Geno Smith Comeback Player of the Year? – Smith has been both good and bad this season. Some games have been career performances, but he is still inconsistent and cannot sustain that play. With the emergence of Kenneth Walker III, look for Seattle to implement a run-first offense. This is Saquon’s award.

Three reactions that are not overreactions I’m hearing

• The Packers will miss the playoffs – This might have been an overreaction last week, but that is no longer the case. Green Bay has dropped consecutive winnable games against the Giants and Jets. They struggled in their wins against the Bucs, thanks to a failed 2-point conversion attempt, and the Patriots, courtesy of a poor coaching decision in OT. They need a playmaker badly.
• The New York Giants will be a Wild Card team – The Giants’ next four games are against the Jaguars, Seahawks, Texans, and Lions – all more than winnable. While they still have two contests remaining against the Eagles and one against the Cowboys, the most brutal stretch of their schedule is over, defeating the Packers and Ravens back-to-back. The best part? The Giants are still without several starters due to injury and will only get healthier.
• The Vikings will win the NFC North – Green Bay is in turmoil, the Bears are downright bad, and the Lions’ defense is atrocious. I was high on Kevin O’Connell taking over as head coach of the Vikings, and he is proving me right.