It’s safe to say that every week will be a wild one in the NFL. The Eagles are the lone 4-0 team, the Raiders managed to avoid starting the year 0-4, and the AFC West looks less like the best conference in the NFL. Let’s recap the week. 

How I fared in my picks

Overall, I have had a good but not great week thus far entering the Monday night matchup. I went 9-6 in my picks. I lost the Bills (-3.5) and Saints (+2.5) by only a half point, which was disappointing, but still a winning week. 

Betting Results

• Favorites were 7-8 through the first 15 games of the week.
• The Packers were the biggest favorite of the weekend (-9.5) but failed to cover. The two other biggest favorites (Eagles -6.5, Chargers -5.5) covered.

Three things that surprised me the most

Baker Mayfield is no longer a viable starting QB

I had high hopes for Baker this season with the Panthers – I even picked Carolina as a sleeper Wild Card team. However, through four games, it is evident that Baker has regressed significantly. Last season, Baker deserved the benefit of the doubt, playing with an injured shoulder he suffered in Week 2 and dealing with the Odell Beckham Jr. drama. Now, Baker has no excuse.

Baker underperformed once again yesterday, throwing for only 197 and two interceptions. He was gifted an early lead, thanks to a pick-six from his defense, yet could not sustain a 10-0 advantage. Late in the game, Baker’s pass attempt was batted down deep in the Panthers’ territory on a 4th-and-1, allowing the Cardinals to extend their margin of victory and put away the contest. Baker heard the boos rain down on him from the home crowd, and already we are hearing the possibility of Sam Darnold starting this weekend against the 49ers. Baker is in a contract season, and there is a good shot he lost any chance at signing a multi-year deal with any team in the offseason.

The Chiefs are better without Tyreek Hill

Besides a fluke loss to the Colts in Week 3, the Chiefs’ offense has been nothing short of dominant. In last night’s marquee matchup against the Bucs, the Chiefs put up 41 points and accumulated 417 yards against a Bucs defense that was ranked near the top of the league. Patrick Mahomes has looked every bit of the MVP he is known to be. TE Travis Kelce has accepted the role of No. 1 receiver seamlessly, and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire has stepped up to be the impactful RB the Chiefs drafted a few years back.

That’s not to say the Chiefs wouldn’t gladly accept Tyreek Hill’s service if they could. But as of now, they sure aren’t missing him too much.

Cooper Rush is one of the best NFL backups

When Dak Prescott went down with an injury in Week 1, many wrote off the Cowboys’ season too prematurely. Since then, backup Cooper Rush has led Dallas to three straight wins against the Bengals, Giants, and Commanders. Rush has thrown for 737 yards, 4 TDs, and no interceptions in his three starts. He has been so efficient there have been rumblings about whether or not there should be a QB competition once Prescott returns. Though the Cowboys are Prescott’s team, he is unlikely to lose the starting gig. Still, with the way Rush has been playing, the Cowboys are under no pressure to “rush” Prescott back onto the field.

Other things that surprised me

• Zach Wilson led the Jets to a comeback – Down late in the 4th quarter to the Steelers, Wilson engineered two consecutive scoring drives to give the Jets a 24-20 victory. His performance overshadowed the debut of Steelers rookie Kenny Pickett, who took over for the struggling Mitch Trubisky. While Wilson’s numbers were less than spectacular, 18-for-36 passing for 252 yards, one TD, and two interceptions, he stepped up when it mattered most, giving Jets fans hope for the future.
• Kyler Murray remained unfazed after throwing a pick-six – I’ve said many times I am not a fan of Murray, but he deserves credit for the Cardinals’ come-from-behind win. When Murray threw a quick pick-six in the first half, I thought things would only go downhill from there. Instead, Murray threw for 207 yards and two TDs. With DeAndre Hopkins set to return from suspension in Week 7, this team has a reason to feel good about their 2-2 record thus far.
• The Seahawks upset the Lions – Before kickoff, I changed my pick in my office pool from the Lions -5.5 to the Seahawks +5.5. I figured the Lions would win but fail to cover since Detroit was missing key offensive contributors Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, and D’Andre Swift. However, I did not expect the Seahawks to post 48 points in the contest. Seattle QB Geno Smith had an impressive day throwing for 320 yards, two TDs, and one rushing TD, while RB Rashaad Penny ran for 151 yards and two TDs. 

Three things that did not surprise me

The Colts and Matt Ryan struggled again

I hate to admit it, but I was way off with my preseason prediction that the Colts were in a prime position to make a deep postseason run. From Week 1, Matt Ryan has mightily struggled to adapt to his new team. Ryan has thrown five interceptions through four games with a QBR of 41.4. He has also fumbled the ball nine times (three of which he lost), which is on pace to shatter the previous record. To make matters worse, RB Jonathan Taylor suffered an injury, and his availability is up in the air for Thursday night’s game. If the Colts continue to lose, don’t be surprised if they seek another QB option next season.

The Saints will finish the season with a sub .500 record

In the offseason, I predicted the Saints would struggle this season. A season removed from Drew Brees retiring, New Orleans also watched as longtime head coach Sean Payton retired and was replaced by Dennis Allen, who held an 8-28 record in his previous tenure as Raiders head coach. Now, the Saints must start QB Andy Dalton in place of Jameis Winston, who missed yesterday’s contest. Had it not been for a miraculous comeback in Week 1 against the Falcons, the Saints would be 0-4 to start the season. It’s going to be a long year for New Orleans fans.

My NY Giants won!

And it wasn’t pretty. After QB Daniel Jones hurt his ankle on a sack in the third quarter, he was replaced by backup Tyrod Taylor, who threw an interception on his first drive, then left the game later with a head injury. Opting to go with the wildcat, the Giants were able to run the ball, with Saquon Barkley accounting for a career-high 31 carries. There were injuries all around yesterday as CB Aaron Robinson, S Julian Love, and WR Kenny Golladay left the game and didn’t return. This was in addition to missing DE Leonard Williams and WRs Wan’Dale Robinson and Kadarius Toney. Still, the Big Blue muscled through in a gallant effort. This week’s key will monitor the QB situation heading into Sunday’s London contest against the Packers. If Jones is healthy enough for the start, it will be a winnable game for the G-Men, given the Packers’ offensive struggles.

Other non-surprises for me

• Carson Wentz and the Commanders are bad – Another week, another poor showing for the beleaguered QB. Yesterday was a winnable game for the Commanders, given that the Cowboys were playing on a short week and employing their backup QB Cooper Rush to make his third consecutive start. That, however, did not matter as Wentz threw for only 170 yards, one TD, and two interceptions. Wentz may be on his fourth team in four seasons next year.
• The Bills are back – One week after falling to the Dolphins, the Bills had one of the more impressive comebacks of the season, defeating the Ravens 23-20. Capitalizing on a late interception from Lamar Jackson, Bills QB Josh Allen proved why he deserves to be the frontrunner of the MVP race as he led his team down the field for the winning field goal as time expired. This Bills’ squad is still the team to beat.
• Justin Fields struggled again – Albeit Fields had probably his best game in yardage this season, it was another disappointing start for the second-year signal caller. Fortunately for Fields, the Bears have no other viable option at QB, so he will remain the starter. However, unless Fields shows improvement, the Bears may be in the market for another QB next season.

Three overreactions I’m hearing

• The Bucs are in trouble – Let’s calm down. This Bucs’ defense was ranked at the top of the league before last night’s loss to the Chiefs. It was a distressing week for the Bucs to deal with Hurricane Ian. Throw this defeat aside.
• Cooper Rush will remain the starter when Dak is healthy – I wrote above that it surprised me how well Cooper Rush has played thus far, but he is still the backup for the Cowboys. Dak is still the starter.
• The Cardinals will be a Wild Card team – They had a good win yesterday against the Panthers, but Kyler Murray struggled in the first half. Sure, they are getting DeAndre Hopkins back in Week 7, but he may need more with a tough schedule coming up.

Three reactions that are not overreactions I’m hearing

• Baker Mayfield will be benched for Sam Darnold – The Panthers’ next three games include matchups against the 49ers, Rams, and the Bucs. Given how much Mayfield struggled against teams like the Browns, Cardinals, and Giants, it’s only a matter of when he will be benched.
• Saquon Barkley will win Comeback Player of the Year – Saquon has been on fire this season, leading the league in rushing yards. He may even insert himself into the MVP race if he keeps up this pace.
• The Broncos won’t make the playoffs – RB Javonte Williams went down with an injury and will likely miss several weeks, leaving Melvin Gordon as the lead back. Gordon lost yet another fumble yesterday, which led to a Raiders TD. He now has four on the year. Given how much this offense has struggled thus far, it’s hard to see how they will turn it around even with Russell Wilson under center. Head coach Nathaniel Hackett appears to be way over his head.