My Giants won again to go to 7-2, matching our over/under win total from the beginning of the season. The Raiders sank to a new low, losing to an interim head coach that never coached beyond the high school level, and the Vikings upset the Bills in the craziest, most entertaining game of the year. Let’s recap.

How I fared in my picks

Overall, I had a great week at 10-3 ATS. We lost the 49ers (-6.5) because Robbie Gould missed an extra point, and I whiffed on the Browns (+3.5) against Miami.

Betting Results

• Underdogs won the week at 5-8 ATS.
• There were some big upsets. The Colts (+5.5) defeated the Raiders in Vegas, the Packers (-5.5) won against the Cowboys in OT, and the Vikings (+5) came from behind to beat the Bills in OT. 

Three things that surprised me the most

The Bills blew a 17-point lead

Even when Allen was declared active, I thought the Vikings would at least cover in yesterday’s matchup. However, my hopes dwindled once Buffalo pulled away with a 17-point lead in the second half. Nevertheless, while I knew there was the opportunity for a backdoor cover, I didn’t envision the Vikings pulling off the come-from-behind upset. 

Once Buffalo stuffed Kirk Cousins at the goal line on 4th down, I figured the game was over. However, a costly Josh Allen fumble in the endzone enabled the Vikings to take an improbable lead. Tying the game with a field goal to send the contest into OT, it appeared Allen would lead the Bills to victory, but he threw his second INT in the endzone to end the game. Allen has struggled of late, especially with his turnovers. The former MVP frontrunner can kiss his dreams of winning the award goodbye at this point in the season, but the more pressing matter is winning the division or securing a first-round bye. Miami leap-frogged the Bills in the standings and owns the tiebreaker with them. A Wild Card berth would be very disappointing, given the Bills’ expectations leading into the season.

The Browns’ lack of offense

The Dolphins’ defense ranks near the bottom of the league, but the Browns failed to generate any consistent offense. It was a missed opportunity for a Cleveland team with an outside shot of making the playoffs once DeShaun Watson returns after his 11-game suspension. Miami trampled over a Cleveland defense that showed signs of life when they limited Joe Burrow and the Bengals to 13 points on Halloween night. Instead, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill trampled all over the Browns’ defense en route to a 39-point showcase. At this point, the Browns may not want to rush Watson back and save their QB for next season.

Christian Watson explodes for the Packers

The Packers covering against the Cowboys was one of my top picks over the weekend, but I did not see Christian Watson finally breaking out for the Packers as he did. Watson tallied four catches for 107 yards and three TDs against a good Dallas secondary. Maybe Aaron Rodgers finally found his weapon.

Three things that did not surprise me

The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL

The talk leading into Sunday’s matchup between the Colts and the Raiders focused more on Indy’s questionable hire of ESPN analyst and former Pro Bowler Jeff Saturday as the interim head coach. As heavy home favorites, the Raiders accumulated another poor showing as they dropped the game 25-20 against a Colts team that went through another QB change and a head coach firing in the week prior. The game was so dismal that Derek Carr was in near tears during the press conference. Josh McDaniels isn’t helping his case for getting another shot as a head coach after failing in Denver.

Saquon Barkley is playing for that long-term contract

In yesterday’s win against the Texans, Barkley rushed for 152 yards on 35 carries and a TD. As a pending free agent, Barkley is making a solid case for why he deserves to be one of the highest-paid RBs in the league. My Giants have a tough decision to make this offseason. As good as Barkley is when healthy, he has a long history of injury-plagued seasons. Still, if he continues to produce like this, it will be hard to allow him to walk.

Tua continues to shine

For the past few weeks, I’ve been making a case that Tua should be a frontrunner for the MVP award. Yesterday, he threw another impressive outing for 285 yards and three TDs. With Josh Allen struggling, Tua’s stock is continuing to rise. Pat Mahomes may be the only one standing in his way.   

Three overreactions I’m hearing

• The Vikings are the best team in the NFC – Let’s not forget their blowout loss to the Eagles in Week 2. They also benefited from multiple Bills miscues en route to their epic comeback. Give them credit, but this team is still flawed on defense, and Kirk Cousins sometimes struggles. Justin Jefferson as an MVP candidate is not an overreaction, though.
• Desmond Ridder will be the starting quarterback in Atlanta – Marcus Mariota continues to struggle, and that will pave the way for Ridder to take over as QB. The Falcons are playing their way out of playoff contention with their second consecutive loss. There’s no reason to keep Ridder on the bench.
• Justin Fields is a star – A couple of breakout running games don’t warrant superstar status. Fields played two of the worst defenses in back-to-back weeks, and his costly pick-six proved he still has issues throwing the ball. He’s great for fantasy but not a long-term solution.

Three reactions that are not overreactions I’m hearing

• The Bills won’t win the AFC East – The Dolphins are on a roll and own the tiebreaker against the Bills. Josh Allen has continued to struggle and is battling some injuries affecting his ability to be effective. With three losses and some challenging games remaining on the schedule, the Bills could find themselves without home-field advantage and a first-round bye. 
• The Packers will make the playoffs – We’ve been writing their obituary for the past few weeks, but Green Bay is still alive with their win against the Cowboys. If Christian Watson can be the No. 1 receiving Aaron Rodgers has been searching for, the Packers could be dangerous in the postseason.
• Derek Carr will not be the Raiders QB next season – Carr can’t win the big games, and with head coach Josh McDaniels, he may be ready to move on for the longtime Raider after this season. Carr’s emotion during his press conference yesterday said it all. His time as a Raider may be winding down.