Well, that was quite an exciting, unpredictable, and bracket-busting first round! If you’re like me and watched Kentucky’s First Round loss to St. Peter’s end, any chances you had at winning your office pool, betting on the games may be the next best thing.
With top seeds like Baylor, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and more eliminated from the competition, this season’s tournament is up for grabs. While three No. 1 seeds remain (Gonzaga, Kansas, and Arizona), there are plenty of teams no one expected to make it this far and can still make a ton of noise in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight.
With that, here are our top 5 picks ATS for the Sweet Sixteen:
No. 11 Michigan +5.5 over No. 2 Villanova
I had Michigan losing to Colorado State in the First Round of the tournament, and it seemed like it was going the Rams’ way until the second half. The Wolverines came out on fire following the intermission and never looked back. This seems to happen every year. The team that appears to be an undeserving pick to make the tournament proves all naysayers wrong and advances not one but multiple rounds.
Now, the Wolverines must take on the Wildcats, who are no strangers to deep tournament runs under HC Jay Wright. Led by Collin Gillespie, Villanova had no trouble defeating No. 15 Delaware and No. 7 Ohio State by double-digits. They can be dangerous when the senior is rolling, especially from the perimeter. However, Michigan’s center Hunter Dickerson has turned in back-to-back 20+ point games, including a double-double against Tennessee. If he can continue his dominance in the paint, then the Wolverines should at least be able to stay in striking distance. Take the points.
No. 5 Houston +1.5 over No. 1 Arizona
I still have Arizona advancing to the Finals in my now busted bracket. However, after watching Houston play in its first two tournament games, I think the Cougars have what it takes to pull off the upset. Though the Wildcats have been consistent all season, they have yet to face a team as dangerously elite on defense as the Cougars. Houston allows only 58.9 points per game on average and has won 11 of their last 12.
Arizona has arguably been the most consistent team this year but has yet to oppose a team as stringent on defense as Houston. Both teams can put up massive points, but the Cougars tend to slow the pace down of the game, which could slow down the Wildcats’ up-tempo on the offensive front. This should be a low-scoring affair as a result. In that case, I’ll take the more robust defensive unit. Give me Houston with the upset.
No. 3 Texas Tech -1 over No. 2 Duke
Coach K’s tenure as Duke head coach ends here in the Sweet Sixteen. Though he will forever be one of the best coaches in college basketball history, his squad will struggle against the Red Raiders, who own perhaps the best defensive team in the nation. Most of Duke’s success lies in creating turnovers and demolishing teams in transition. However, Texas Tech plays at a methodical pace and will look to slow down the Blue Devils’ offense, limiting their chances at putting points on the board. The Red Raiders are no slouch either on offense, as they rack up over 71 points on average per game and should be able to expose Duke’s vulnerable defensive unit. Take the Red Raiders to win this one close.
No. 1 Gonzaga -9.5 over No. 4 Arkansas
It is a big spread, but the Bulldogs have enough talent on their roster to put away the last SEC team standing. Between Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren dominating the frontcourt for Gonzaga, the ‘Zags should be able to contain the Razorbacks. Though Arkansas possesses a stellar defense, the Razorbacks won’t be able to keep up with the Bulldogs on offense. They already had two close calls, barely inching by No. 13 Vermont in the First Round 75-71 followed by No. 12 New Mexico State 53-48.
While the spread may seem high, it’s just right to me. Gonzaga may have had trouble putting away No. 9 Memphis in the Second Round, but they seem to have found their groove heading into the second weekend of play. Look for the Bulldogs to pound the boards early and create trouble for Arkansas. Lay the points.
No. 4 UCLA -2 over No. 8 UNC
I’m a Tar Heels fan, but I don’t see UNC pulling off its second-straight upset over UCLA. The Bruins are one of the most complete teams in the nation. The Bruins star player Johnny Juzang has been on fire this tournament, and while fellow teammate Jaime Jaquez is dealing with an injury, it sounds like his co-star will suit up in time for tipoff. The most significant difference between these two teams is on the defensive end. The Bruins are tight on defense, limiting opponents to only 64.5 points per game, while the Tar Heels surrender 71.5 points per game. If UNC struggles to get it going on offense, they can fall behind quickly to the Bruins, and their defense will not be able to stop the duo of Juzang/Jaquez on the floor. Lay the points.
