We’ve finally arrived at the most anticipated round of the NCAA tournament to date: the Final Four!
It’s been a tournament like no other. From No. 2 Kentucky falling to the most unlikely Cinderella story in No. 15 St. Peter’s to No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga falling victim to another early elimination to the most storied rivalry in college basketball set to face off in Duke vs. UNC, there has not been a lack of excitement.
Very few expected Kansas to be the lone No. 1 seed representative in the Final Four. And even less predicted a Duke/UNC showdown. There has been an unprecedented amount of upsets through the first four rounds with unlikely mid-major schools destroying brackets across the country. Yet, in the end, the Final Four features four of the top schools in the nation – and ones that are no strangers winning the championship.
Four big name teams, two of the most anticipated matchups; here is who we like to advance to the Finals and cover this week ATS:
Duke -4 over UNC
As a Tar Heels fan, I would have never predicted UNC would go on to upset No. 1 Baylor and No. 4 UCLA after a first round win against No. 9 Marquette. The Tar Heels followed up a disappointing early exit in the ACC Championship to take down two of the best teams in the country, including last year’s defending championship Baylor. It can be argued that the East was the hardest region to navigate, stacked with some of the most elite squads, yet a No. 8 seed is the last team standing.
Duke, another perennial contender in March Madness, was overlooked in the West Region. Many fans backed No. 1 Gonzaga, a perennial March Madness disappointment or No. 3 Texas Tech who made the Finals back in 2019. Just when it seemed like the Blue Devils were going to let Coach K’s storied tenure become another byline, Duke stormed past Texas Tech in the Sweet Sixteen before dismantling No. 4 Arkansas in the Elite Eight. Now, these two ACC rivals come together for an epic showdown in the Final Four – you couldn’t script a better tournament ending for Coach K’s career.
Last time these two teams met, it was the Tar Heels playing spoiler to Coach K’s final home game in front of a sold-out Blue Devils crowd, winning by a 94-81 margin in the regular season finale. You know that left a bitter taste in both the players and Coach K’s mouth and they will most definitely be looking for revenge for an embarrassing end to their regular season. UNC, however, has their sights set on the trophy – and the first Finals appearance in the post-Roy Williams era.
With a young squad let by freshmen sensations Paolo Banchero and AJ Griffin, the Blue Devils have excelled as of late thanks to the emergence of Jeremy Roach and Mark Williams. This Duke team has been playing their best ball since the beginning of the season, when they earned a No. 1 national ranking after defeating powerhouses such as Gonzaga and Kentucky. They seem to have recaptured that magic, motivated too, by giving their legendary head coach a potential storybook ending to his career.
UNC, like Duke, has also been playing its best basketball since the tournament began. A reason why the Tar Heels are a No. 8 seed is attributed to their inconsistency all season. Only a month ago, many wondered whether the Tar Heels would even make the tournament. Well, UNC has proved their doubters wrong as they have been nothing short of impressive in their run to the Final Four. Led by center Armando Bacut and sophomore guard Caleb Love, UNC can be dangerous both in the paint and outside the perimeter. They can score at will and are deadly in transition.
Both of these teams are similar in their scoring abilities and success in transition. However, UNC was able to defeat Duke in the regular season finale by protecting the ball and scoring efficiently on offense. This prevented Duke from scoring in transition and led to a Tar Heels win. However, if there is one advantage Duke has unquestionably, it is in their head coaching. You know Coach K has studied the tape and with a full week of preparation he will have his team ready to take on their rivals. This is a game that should go back-and-forth to the final minute, but in the end, Duke prevails and gives their Coach a proper sendoff in the Finals. Lay the points.
Villanova +4 over Kansas
There’s no question that the Jayhawks have had the easiest road to the Final Four out of all four No. 1 seeds. They were fortunate enough to evade squaring off against No. 2 Auburn or No. 3 Wisconsin and instead, took on an overmatched No. 10 Miami in the Elite Eight. This is a team many thought did not deserve a No. 1 seed, but locked in their seeding after winning the Big 12 Tournament.
Villanova, low-key, won the South bracket after overpowering No. 5 Houston in the Elite Eight. It probably helped the Wildcats that Houston had barely 48 hours to recover, fresh off the Cougars upset of No. 1 Arizona. Still, under head coach Jay Wright, Villanova is one win away from another Finals experience. However, they lost star guard Justin Moore in the process, as the shooting phenom was injured late in the game against Houston. All eyes now are on 5th-year sensation Collin Gillespie who will be relied on if the Wildcats are to score the upset.
Both of these squads pose a powerful offense, with Kansas notably leaning on Arizona State transfer Remy Martin and wing Ochai Agbaji to lead the Jayhawks in scoring. This matchup should be a high-scoring affair as Kansas holds the advantage in depth from its bench. The Wildcats, meanwhile, lack depth and could have trouble keeping up with the Jayhawks, especially with Moore’s absence from the lineup. However, the Wildcats are a well-coached, veteran team who will be able to step it up with the game on the line. While they may fall short of winning outright, Villanova should be able to keep it close and bring it down to the closing minutes of the game. The Wildcats are capable of an upset, but with the lack of depth, go the safe route and take the points.
