Who: Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Where: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL

When: Saturday, January 7th, 2022, 8:15pm ET

Moneyline: Jaguars -290, Titans +240

Spread: Jaguars -6.5

Total: 40 o/u

It all comes down to Saturday night when the AFC South title is up for grabs between the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars. All each team needs to do is win, and they are in the postseason. And what a difference just a couple of weeks makes.

Following a Thursday night walloping of the Green Bay Packers in mid-November, the Titans held a 7-3 record and were largely in control of claiming yet another division title. However, a string of six losses has dropped them on the outside, looking into the playoff race with a sub-.500 record. During that time, the Titans lost QB Ryan Tannehill in their loss to the Chargers on December 18th. The following weekend against the one-win Texans, head coach Mike Vrabel turned to rookie QB Malik Willis to take the reins, but the young gunslinger stumbled out of the gate, and the Titans were upset at home. Knowing Willis is not ready yet to lead an NFL team, Vrabel signed journeyman Joshua Dobbs off the Detroit Lions practice squad and named him the starter last Thursday against the Cowboys. 

In an audition for Week 18, Dobbs performed efficiently in his first career NFL start, throwing for 232 yards with one touchdown and one interception against an above-average Dallas defense. It was impressive, considering the Titans were resting many starters on both sides of the ball, including top RB Derrick Henry. 

All signs indicate Henry will be back in the lineup for Week, which does not bode well for Jacksonville. Henry has been a force of nature in his last three games against the Jaguars, rushing for 215, 130, and 121 yards, respectively, with six total rushing touchdowns. His presence should alleviate the burden for Dobbs and allow the offense to spread out for passes downfield. 

For the Jaguars, a late-season surge has catapulted them back into the playoff picture. Trevor Lawrence has emerged as an effective starter in his second year and has shown flashes of why he deserved the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Perhaps the most significant contributor has been the rise of former Giants TE Evan Engram, who has been sensational during the Jaguars’ win streak. Give credit to head coach Doug Pederson who has transformed the entire culture following the chaotic season during the Urban Meyer tenure. 

The spread for this game opened up with the Jaguars and 6.5-point favorites. This should be no surprise, given both teams have been trending in opposite directions. However, when all comes down to one game, nothing else matters, which is why I firmly believe the spread is way too high. The Titans own a superior defense and better run game and should be able to keep the game close, if not pull off the upset. Expect Tennessee to pound the ball with Henry and keep Lawrence and the offense on the sidelines.

For the total, I usually lean under in games played on shortened weeks, but I am favoring the over 40 in this contest. Both teams can score, and I can see both squads getting 20 points or better. It will come close, but this game can also go into overtime and give each team another opportunity to score.

Even with Tannehill sidelined, I consider the Titans the more talented squad overall, and that is why I am taking Tennessee with the points.

Pick: Titans +6.5

Over 40