Two weeks to go and one Wild Card spot left for the AFC. Let’s break down the true contenders and give our predictions on who will clinch the final playoff berth. (Percentages to reach the postseason courtesy of PlayoffStatus.com).

AFC Wild Card – The Contenders

Miami Dolphins (8-7)

Chance to reach postseason: 69%

Week 17: at Patriots (7-8)

Week 18: vs. Jets (7-8)

It was only a few weeks ago that many were wondering if the Dolphins had a chance to not only reach the playoffs, but win the AFC East and clinch a first-round bye. However, a four-game losing streak derailed the Dolphins chances of winning the division, let alone securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC. 

While the Dolphins’ defense has been its kryptonite all season, its offense has been the primary reason for its losing skid. Third-year QB, Tua Tagovailoa, once thought to be a MVP contender, has regressed in recent weeks. During the losing streak, Tua has tossed five interceptions, after previously only throwing three for the entire season. He has also been noticeably inaccurate, completing only 52.8 of his passes the past four games.

Fortunately, the Dolphins no longer have to play a team with a winning record. Still, it will be a challenging road game in New England this weekend. The forecast calls for rain which will make it tougher to complete passes for an offense that has struggled. And the following week, the Dolphins will host the Jets, who despite their flaws, still possess a top five defense in the league. There is a good chance the final Wild Card spot could come down to that Week 18 matchup if both Miami and New York win this weekend. If that’s the case, you can bet Miami will be rooting for Seattle on Sunday.

Prediction: Miami wins versus the Patriots, but loses in Week 18 versus the Jets, thus missing the playoffs. 

New England Patriots (7-8)

Chance to reach postseason: 12%

Week 17: vs. Dolphins (8-7)

Week 18: at Bills (12-3)

Mac Jones has made enemies both in and out of Foxboro in recent weeks. His dirty play on Bengals CB Eli Apple is sure to warrant him a fine and his poor play has caused the Patriots’ faithful to turn against him in only his second year in the NFL. Still, Jones is hardly the only man on the roster to blame. Jakobi Meyers ill-advised backwards lateral cost the Patriots the game against the Raiders in Week 15 and New England’s top RBs have been injured on-and-off all season. Perhaps, however, the biggest obstacles the Patriots face is having the hardest remaining schedule of the Wild Card contenders looking to clinch the final spot. Both of their opponents possess a record over .500 and their Week 18 matchup will be daunting against the Bills. There is a sense in the locker room that this team has lost confidence in recent weeks and if the Patriots lose this weekend to the Dolphins, they can pretty much kiss their playoff chances goodbye.

Prediction: Patriots lose their final two games and miss the playoffs.

New York Jets (7-8)

Chance to reach postseason: 15%

Week 17: at Seahawks (7-8)

Week 18: at Dolphins (8-7)

The Zach Wilson era is just about over in New York and that means the Jets will turn to their hopeful savior Mike White to lead them into the postseason. While their offense has been lackluster, their defense is still among one of the most elite units in the league. CB Sauce Gardner is all but certain to win Defensive Rookie of the Year and if the defense can continue its dominance, the Jets will remain in a position to win. 

This weekend, the Jets will travel to Seattle to take on the struggling Seahawks. While Lumen Field is one of the toughest venues to play for opposing teams, the Jets are fortunate enough to catch the Seahawks who will be missing top WR Tyler Lockett once again. Seattle never recovered after losing to the Buccaneers in Germany on November 13th. Including that defeat, the Seahawks have dropped five of their previous six games. If the Jets can get the spark they need from White and defeat the Seahawks, it will set up a showdown in Week 18 against the Dolphins in a winner-take-all showdown. Miami, who is struggling as well, has faced difficulties against top defenses, so the Jets may find themselves in a favorable position. Still, they need to win Week 17 first.

Prediction: Jets win their final two games and advance to the postseason.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8)

Chance to reach postseason: 1%

Week 17: at Ravens (10-5)

Week 18: vs. Browns (6-9)

It seems like the Steelers have sneaked into playoff contention, and like last season, they will need everything to go right for them in order to clinch. The Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins all hold the tiebreaker against the Steelers. As a result, Pittsburgh needs to win outright and pray that Miami loses its final two games. If that is the case, they will also need the Patriots and the Jets to lose one of their final two games each. Since the Jaguars and Titans play each other in Week 18, the winner of that contest will win the AFC South and the loser will be eliminated from postseason contention. 

It’s quite the longshot, but the Steelers were in a similar predicament last year and managed to clinch the final postseason spot. Stranger things have happened.

Prediction: The Steelers win one of two games, and fail to make the postseason.

AFC South – Contenders

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8)

Chance to reach postseason: 61 %

Week 17: at Texans (2-12-1)

Week 18: vs. Titans (7-8)

The Jaguars received a gift when the Texans scooped up their second win of the season by defeating the Titans on Christmas Eve. To reach the postseason, the Jaguars need to beat the same Texans team this weekend and hope the Titans drop their matchup against the Cowboys on Thursday night. Given the fact that Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is out for the season and the Titans rookie QB Maalik Willis has struggled mightily in his few starts this season, it is safe to say Jacksonville will have a great shot to win their final two games outright and win their division. Head coach Doug Pederson has his squad in the driver’s seat.

Prediction: Jacksonville wins the AFC South.

Tennessee Titans (7-8)

Chance to reach postseason: 40%

Week 17: vs. Cowboys (11-4)

Week 18: at Jaguars (7-8)

The Titans can only rely on Derrick Henry to do so much. Without a capable QB, the Titans face an uphill battle against the 11-4 Cowboys on Thursday night. Even if they have a shot against the Jaguars in Week 18, it will be a formidable challenge with rookie Maalik Willis under center. Willis has yet to resemble a franchise QB and opposing defenses know if they take away the run game and force the rookie to throw, they have a heavy advantage. The Titans showed life throughout the year, even after a tumultuous offseason, but the forecast for their playoff chances are looking grim.

Prediction: Titans lose their final two games and miss the postseason.