With just over two months to go until the NFL Regular Season Kickoff, it’s time to bring back our Futures Win Total series. Last year, I was 2-1-1 in my picks for this division – I was correct with the Bills and Jets, missed the Patriots by 0.5 wins, and pushed with the Dolphins.
Let’s get straight to the picks for this season.
Buffalo Bills
2022-2023 Record: 13-3
Futures Win Total: 10.5 (-160/+140)
When the Bills were embarrassed at home in a crucial AFC Divisional Round matchup against the Bengals, I declared that their Super Bowl window was over. Many say that was premature of me considering QB Josh Allen may have yet to reach his prime, but I will stand by my assertion. There are quite a few factors to consider why the Bills may struggle to reach double-digit wins this year. For one, their competitors have all improved in the offseason. Another, the biggest news out of their offseason thus far has been a disgruntled Stefan Diggs. There were many instances last season where he was visibly frustrated with the offense, and if he doesn’t get the targets he feels he warrants, there could be trouble brewing in Buffalo. The defense also took a hit with the loss of LB Tremaine Edwards (though they did manage to retain S Jordan Poyer).
Still, I don’t envision this team having an easy road to the playoffs, especially if the Bills struggle early in the season. Five of their final six games will be against teams who reached the postseason last year (including the Eagles and Chiefs who squared off in the Super Bowl). In the end I think they reach the playoffs, but as a Wild Card team rather than a division winner.
Miami Dolphins
2022-2023 Record: 9-8
Futures Win Total: 9.5 (-125/+105)
The key for Miami this season is protecting their QB and keeping him healthy. Had Tua Tagovailoa not missed several crucial games during the season, Miami would have been a dangerous playoff team. However, multiple concussions derailed the Dolphins’ season albeit they did still manage to record a winning one.
Now, after an offseason where the Dolphins upgraded the defense with the additions of CB Jalen Ramsey and LB David Long Jr., Miami finds itself in a prime position to contend. With the most lethal receiving duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins offense will be tough to get off the field. Combine that with the new and improved defense and Miami should be able to give the Bills a run for the division lead. Let’s not forget, top RB Dalvin Cook is still a free agent and has been linked to potentially sign with the Fins. Add his resume to a backfield that already features Raheem Mosert and Jeff Wilson Jr., and you can argue Miami has the best offense in the AFC.
New England Patriots
2022-2023 Record: 8-9
Futures Win Total: 7.5 (-125/+105)
The big splash of the Patriots’ offseason centered around the signing of free agent WR JuJu Smith-Schuster. While his veteran presence should aid Mac Jones in what many presume to be a make-or-break third season, it may be the departure of WR Jakobi Meyers that hurts the offense more than it helps. It was a head-scratcher that the Patriots opted to let Meyers walk for the same amount of money, but they did manage to sign TE Mike Gesiki as well to help bolster the offense.
Overall, the Patriots’ offseason was noticeably uneventful. Though there was speculation that the team was interested in signing QB Jimmy Garoppolo, they opted to stick with Jones. With a short lease now, Jones will be expected to step up or else there will be clamoring for Bailey Zappe to take over under center.
I, for one, think the Patriots are no worse than last year, but not much better. That being said, I’ll lean over because Belichick is still capable of pulling wins out of his sleeve. Plus, if Jones emerges this season, there’s only room to grow.
New York Jets
2022-2023 Record: 7-10
Futures Win Total: 9.5 (+105/-125)
The Jets made the most talked about move of the offseason acquiring Aaron Rodgers from Green Bay. They also added former Packers WRs Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard while trading away the disgruntled Elijah Moore. It’s a move that eerily echoes their unsuccessful campaign with another Packer great Brett Favre which was doomed from the beginning. All eyes now will be on the Jets and anything short of a postseason berth will be considered a mistake.
I have talked extensively about how last season was a widely overrated season for New York. Many of their wins were fluky and their offense was utterly inconsistent. For example, their win against Miami featured the Dolphins’ rookie third-string QB Skylar Thompson and their victory over the Browns was when Jacoby Brissett was under center over DeShaun Watson. Let’s not forget their win over the lowly Bears was against journeyman Trevor Siemian rather than Justin Fields.
I’m in the minority but I’m willing to go on record saying I believe the Jets will finish last once again in their division. I don’t feel Aaron Rodgers will be able to duplicate his MVP success from two seasons ago and the media will pounce on him from the first sign of turmoil. We saw the disaster of a Nathanial Hackett-run offense in Denver last year and I don’t see this season being any different. I’m 100 percent on the under here.
