Who: Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO

When: Thursday, October 6th, 5:20 PM PT

Spread: Broncos -3.5

Total: 42 o/u

Two teams that entered the 2022 season with lofty expectations square off Thursday night as the Indianapolis Colts take on the Denver Broncos in Mile High. Both squads fell short of clinching a playoff berth last season but believed they were each one QB away from making a compelling Super Bowl run. In response, the Colts traded for former MVP Matt Ryan while the Broncos acquired Super Bowl champion Russell Wilson to take over under center. However, the results have been less than stellar. 

The Colts began the season with a tie against the rebuilding Houston Texans, then were shut out by the surging Jacksonville Jaguars. A fluke win against the Chiefs gave the fanbase a glimmer of hope until Indy dropped a home matchup with the Tennessee Titans. Though there has been a slew of injuries, Ryan has looked like a shell of his former self. He has already fumbled nine times, lost three, and tossed five interceptions. Still, Ryan has plenty of time to find a resurgence and develop a rapport with WR Michael Pittman. The Colts also have Jonathan Taylor handling the run game, but he has been ruled out for Thursday, and Nyheim Hines will take over the backfield.

The Broncos were expected to match their stout defense with a firepower offense helmed by Wilson. However, the offense has been anemic through four games and committed several pivotal mistakes, including two goal line fumbles in Week 1 against the Seahawks. Wilson must step up this week, given that top RB Javonte Williams suffered a season-ending injury. Even though Melvin Gordon will take the load of the carries with Williams’ injury, the Broncos will look to rely on the passing game. Gordon already has four fumbles on the year in limited snaps, so he must first gain the coaching staff’s trust and prove he can hang onto the ball.

The total for this contest opened at 43 before dipping to 42. As with all Thursday night matchups, the Under is appealing and is one of the reasons I am going to side with it. This game also features two teams with massively struggling offenses, so expect a low-scoring affair.

As for which team I am siding with, I will back the underdog. I understand the Colts will be missing Taylor, but he was having a down season thus far. Hines is more than capable of picking up the work and making an impact. If Ryan can cut down on his turnovers, he should be able to lead the Colts on long drives and lean on the run game behind Hines to extend the time of possession. The Broncos may edge out a win at home, but I feel this game will ultimately come down to a field goal. That is why the half point is so crucial for this wager. Colts cover.

Pick: Colts +3.5

Under 42