Thursday Night Football Week 1

Who: Bills at Rams

Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

When: Thursday, September 8, 8:20 pm ET

Odds

Moneyline: Bills -135, Rams +115 

Spread: Bills -2.5

Total: 53 o/u

In a matchup that may foreshadow Super Bowl LVII, the Buffalo Bills travel to Southern California to defeat the defending champion Los Angeles Rams and kick off the 2022-2023 NFL season.

All eyes will watch this intriguing contest featuring two of the most explosive offenses accompanied by two of the most intimidating defenses. However, even though the Rams possess a home-field advantage, the Bills are favored in the matchup by -2.5. The oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring affair, setting the total to 53.

In the offseason, both teams sought upgrades to their already potent lineups. The Bills poached LB Von Miller from the Rams and signed WR Jamison Crowder. The Rams, likewise, inked former Bears wideout Allen Robinson II to a deal and replaced Miller with longtime Seahawks LB Bobby Wagner.

When comparing these two teams, it’s hard to pinpoint which team has the edge on offense. The chemistry of both QBs (Josh Allen and Matt Stafford) with their top receivers (Stefon Diggs and Cooper Kupp, respectively) is undeniably dynamic. It could easily lead to a scoring frenzy early. The Rams, though, may have the edge in the running game behind RBs Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson compared to the Bills’ committee of Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and rookie James Cook.

On defense, while the Rams roster the best overall player in Aaron Donald, the Bills are the most dominant. Last season, Buffalo’s defense ranked No. 1 in least points (17) and yards allowed (278) per game. Now, with the addition of Miller and touted rookie CB Kaiirn Elam, many expect the Bills to be even more silencing on defense – and they will soon get CB Tre’Davious White back from injury as well.

Looking at the trends, the Bills are 4-1 ATS and straight up in their 5 games opposing the Rams. LA, meanwhile, is only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against an AFC opponent. The total has also gone Under in 4 of the Rams’ last 6 games. Alternatively, it has gone Over in 5 of the Bills’ previous 7 games (trends courtesy of Oddsshark).

In terms of picks, I’m siding with the Rams and the points on this one. I love backing home underdogs opening week. Currently, the weather forecast calls for mid-80 degrees around kickoff time.*** While SoFi is dome-like, it still has openings on both sides and the temperature inside is not regulated by air conditioning. It could be hot still come kickoff and you can bet there will be a delay following the championship ring ceremony which could hinder players’ warmups. That is why I am taking the Under as well. 

The Bills may be the better team at the end of the season, but the Rams will have the home crowd and the momentum behind them after receiving their championship rings. It will most likely be a close, back-and-forth contest; in that case, I’ll take the 2.5 points. The Bills may end up winning by a point or two, but I have the Rams covering either way. 

Picks:

Rams +2.5

Under 53

***(This post has been updated to adjust the weather change from near triple-digits to the mid-80s.)