Play the Listed vs. Action
When betting in baseball, you have the option to bet on the pitcher listed or the action. If you choose to bet on the pitcher listed, then the bet will be valid only if that pitcher starts the game and throws at least one pitch. Conversely, if you bet the action, the bet is valid no matter who starts the game, even if there is a last-minute pitching change.
Most bettors avoid the action play because they risk the bet falling out of their control. For example, let’s say you bet the Mets will win on the Moneyline at -150 on the day Max Scherzer starts. If you bet the pitching listed, the bet will count as long as Scherzer throws the Mets’ first pitch. If he doesn’t pitch, then the bet will be canceled. However, if you just bet the action, your bet will count even if Scherzer is scratched from the lineup 15 minutes before game time. Your bet will also lock in at the price you wagered on originally. In that case, let’s say Scherzer’s replacement pitcher is a journeyman with a sub-.500 career record. Oddsmakers may shift the line to Mets -110 or even make them underdogs. Still, your bet is locked at the original price at -150, and you lose significant value. It is best always to bet the listed over the action.
Be wary of betting the run line with home teams
In baseball, oddsmakers put up a run line instead of listing the points spread like in basketball and football. A run line bet is the MLB version of a bet against the spread. However, unlike NFL, NBA, NCAAB, and NCAAF spread lines, the MLB run line always is posted at +/- 1.5. Essentially, a team either needs to win by 2 runs if you bet the -1.5 line, or a team has to lose by less than 2 runs (or win outright) if you bet the +1.5.
In every MLB season, on average, 28-30 percent of games played end in a one-run game. If you plan on betting the home team on the run line, consider that if the team has the lead going into the bottom of the 9th, they will not bat, and the game will be over. For instance, let’s say you bet the Dodgers at -1.5. Enter the 9th inning, the Dodgers hold a 5-4 lead and close out the top of the 9th without allowing any runs. In that case, the game will be over, and the Dodgers will not have the opportunity to bat in the 9th. As a result, you will lose the bet.
Conversely, if the home team is the underdog, you may want to capitalize on the run line. Even if they ultimately lose the game, they will still bat in all 9 innings giving you the chance to cover.
Take run lines with plus money
Run lines in baseball are always listed at +/- 1.5. However, the odds change based on the matchup. Unlike in other sports, an underdog in baseball can have a run line with plus odds. For example, let’s say the Red Sox are -1.5/-175 favorites. On the other hand, the Twins are +1.5/+150 underdogs. If you bet the Twins and they cover, a $100 bet will net you a $150 win. Also, keep in mind that a team is guaranteed to bat all 9 innings if they are losing. This gives the team a better chance to win or come within one run. It is even better if they are the road team. Even if they lose by one run, the home team will not be able to bat in the bottom of the 9th, and the score will stand.
Take the Under in day games following night games
When two teams play a late Friday night game followed by an early 1:05 pm start time Saturday afternoon, players may opt to skip batting practice. Without the extra time to warm up, players do not have the benefit of loosening up before the first pitch. This could adversely affect their approach to the plate.
Managers may also tinker with the lineup by giving the backup catcher a start or inserting the utility men in the starting lineup. In that case, it is best to look at betting the under. Without star players in the lineup, teams lack their usual offensive firepower, leading to fewer men on base and fewer runs. Not only that, teams tend to send Saturday’s starting pitchers home early the night before. With well-rested pitchers and less-rested batters, the starter gives a more significant advantage. Take the under in these scenarios.
Take into consideration CoVid vaccine mandates
Although there are currently no mandates in the U.S., Canada still requires proof of vaccination at large events, including baseball stadiums. That mandate applies not only to fans but also to players. While teams do not have to disclose which players are vaccinated or unvaccinated publicly, it will soon become evident when teams take on the Blue Jays in Toronto. Check the opposing team’s starting lineup and roster for the weekend before you bet on any game against the Blue Jays at home. If one or more of the visiting team’s star players is out, the Blue Jays may be worth a play. It also is essential to see if the mandate affects the probable pitching rotation. If a team is forced to use a veteran journeyman or a combination of bullpen arms instead of an ace, it could also affect the total.
