South Region 

Best First Round Matchup: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Loyola-Chicago

Who can forget the Ramblers’ epic tournament run to the Final Four as a No. 11 seed before losing to Michigan back in 2018? Now, back in the tournament, Loyola boats another skilled and experienced roster with enough talent to make noise and bust some brackets this season. On the other hand, OSU has struggled recently, losing four of its last five games. However, the Buckeyes are dangerous on offense when on their game, averaging 73.5 points a game. That happens to be identical to the Ramblers’ avg/ppg. These are two explosive offenses facing off, and it should make for quite the first-round matchup. Expect a back-and-forth, high-scoring contest between the two squads as Loyola attempts to pull off the upset and make another deep tournament run.

Most Likely First Round Upset

While I think the Ramblers will defeat the Buckeyes. I will go one step further and predict that Loyola-Chicago will also pull off the upset of the Villanova Wildcats in the second round. The Big East was not as deep nor as impressive as it has been in recent years, which has benefitted Nova. Though the Wildcats sport an 8-5 record against Top 25 opponents, they lack depth behind its starters led by Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore. These squads match up evenly on the offensive front, but the Ramblers have the edge on defense. If they can limit Nova on the boards, expect the Ramblers to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.

Vegas Odds to Watch: No. 6 Colorado State (+2.5) vs. No. 11 Michigan

Michigan enters this year’s tournament in controversy, most notably after head coach Juwan Howard’s suspension. After beginning the season ranked in the Top 25, it has been nothing but a downhill roller coaster for the Wolverines. Though they are favored in Vegas, please don’t fall victim to their name recognition as a reason for betting on this squad. Colorado State is perhaps the least talked about team that is prime to pull off a deep tournament run. The Rams are incredibly efficient on the offensive and defensive end and possess the ability to limit their opponent’s possessions. This could be an upset not based on the Vegas odds.

Elite Eight Matchup Prediction: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 6 Colorado State

As their seeding indicates, Arizona is by far the best team in this region, and they should have a relatively easy time reaching the Elite Eight. Colorado State, however, will have to get by No. 3 Tennessee, who is fresh off an SEC Tournament Championship win. Still, I think the Rams can pull it off if they can shut down the Volunteers on 3-pointers which they can do so behind their elite defense. It’s a risk picking the Rams over a Tennessee squad that has been on a tear recently, but this tournament is full of surprises every year.

Region Winner: No. 1 Arizona

The Wildcats are back to being the dangerous squad they were years ago, but this team is even more potent. Not only have they been a top team all season, but the most consistent one, especially after defeating UCLA in the Pac-12 Championship. That consistent play should merit them a spot in the Final Four and ultimately a chance to play in the Championship game.

East Region

Best First Round Matchup: No. 7 Murray State vs. No. 10 San Francisco

Both of these teams are relatively unknown to most casual fans, but for those unfamiliar with these squads, you are in for a treat. This should be a gritty battle between two efficient teams on offense and defense – and passion for the game. Expect a down-to-the-wire battle as these high-scoring offenses will rely on their defensive strength to limit one another. This should be fun.

Most Likely First Round Upset: No. 12 Wyoming/Indiana vs. No. 5 St. Mary’s

Here is my No. 12 over No. 5 upset pick. The Wyoming/Indiana First Four matchup winner will likely enter the First Round of play hot and ready to take on the Gaels’ tough defense. After a slow start, Indiana finished the regular season on fire and nearly defeated Iowa in the Big Ten semifinals. Wyoming, meanwhile, plays a unique offense that is fast-paced and aggressive, which could prevent problems for a team like St. Mary’s, who tries to slow down their opponent. Either team will have what it takes to pull off the upset.

Vegas Odds to Watch: No. 11 VA Tech (+1) vs. No. 6 Texas

In what is essentially a pick ’em, look for the Hokies to create problems for the Longhorns. After defeating Duke in the ACC Championship, VA Tech enters the tournament red-hot. Both teams boast stellar defensive units and like to slow down the pace. Yet, the Hokies own the edge on offense since the Longhorns tend to go into offensive slumps at times. Take VA Tech to win outright.

Elite Eight Matchup Prediction: No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 2 Kentucky

It’s a shame both of these teams are in the same region, as I would have liked them in my Final Four. However, I can only select one (I’ll give my pick in the next paragraph). UCLA and Kentucky are two of the best teams in the country. Though they each fell short in their conference tournaments, they both are more than capable of winning the Big Dance. Solid on offense and defense, Kentucky has the experience with several upperclassmen on the roster, while UCLA is stock full of height. In fact, only one starter measures at less than 6’7 for the Bruins. Two of the most consistent squads in the country, they shall soon meet in the Elite Eight. 

Region Winner: No. 2 Kentucky

It will be a tough matchup against UCLA, but in this case, I’ll give the advantage to the team with the better coach. Jim Calipari has been in this situation many times and will find a way to exploit UCLA’s weaknesses to advance to the Final Four. This Wildcat team does just about everything right. If they continue their aggressiveness on offense and attack the rim to create second-chance points, they will be dancing into the Finals.

Midwest Region

Best First Round Matchup: No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 Richmond

Richmond is lucky to be in the tournament after defeating Davidson in the A-10 tournament. Still, despite their relatively unimpressive year, their recent hot streak has them peaking at just the right time. Unfortunately, they must play an Iowa squad that has played their best basketball of the season down the stretch, including winning the Big Ten Conference. This should be an entertaining game featuring a high-powered Hawkeye offense against a resilient Spider squad that never seems to quit no matter how much they trail.

Most Likely First Round Upset: No. 13 South Dakota State vs. No. 4 Providence

The Friars enter the tournament arguably overseeded. Despite winning the regular-season title in the Big East, they were blown out in the semifinals of their conference tournament by Creighton. Now, they draw an energetic South Dakota State team that is one of the most explosive squads on offense, averaging 86.7 points per game. It’s a bad matchup for the Friars, who excel when they can slow down the game’s pace. Instead, the Jackrabbits will look to up the tempo and build a lead early. This matchup is one Providence head coach Ed Cooley was not anticipating in the first round of play.

Vegas Odds to Watch: No. 13 South Dakota State (+2) vs. No. 4 Providence

This has upset spelled all over it, and Vegas agrees. Failing to make the Big East Conference Finals could have been the difference between a 3-seed and a 4-seed for the Friars. They could not have asked for a worst first-round draw than the Jackrabbits. Expect South Dakota State to come out explosive on offense. If they find their groove early, Providence will have difficulty playing catch-up.

Elite Eight Matchup Prediction: No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 2 Auburn

There’s no denying how Iowa has recently emerged as one of the top teams in the country, given their recent play. This should enable the Hawkeyes to pull off the upset against No. 1 Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen, setting up a showdown in the Elite Eight against Auburn. Behind freshmen sensation Jabari Smith, the Tigers surpassed their preseason expectations and nearly secured a No. 1 seed if it wasn’t for a disappointing showing in the SEC Tournament. Auburn was bounced in the first round by Texas A&M, who went on to lose to Tennessee in the Finals. Still, Auburn is primed for a deep run in this tournament and should reach the Elite Eight if they play to the level they have been all season.

Region Winner: No. 5 Iowa

Many will tell you this tournament is all about momentum, and Iowa has its share. There are times when the Hawkeyes’ defense can be its kryptonite, but if Keegan Murray and Jordan Bohannon continue their explosiveness on offense, they can win any shootout. In the end, consistency will be crucial and after their tournament run ended early last year, expect Iowa to go all the way and win their region this season.

West Region

Best First Round Matchup: No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Davidson

You have to love Tom Izzo every March Madness. The longtime Spartans coach is one of the icons of the tournament. Although his MSU squad isn’t as impressive as his past teams, you can never count out the Spartans as long as he coaches the sidelines. Davidson, meanwhile, plays at a slower tempo which could be problematic for the scrappy Spartan squad. Still, these teams are evenly matched, leading to a competitive contest that free throws could decide at the end.

Most Likely First Round Upset: No. 13 Vermont over No. 4 Arkansas 

Winning 22 of their last 23 games, the Catamounts have all the ingredients to be disruptive in this year’s tournament. Efficient on both offense and defense, they are led by seniors Ben Shungu and Ryan Davis, which gives them the veteran experience needed to make some noise. Vermont ranks in the top five in the nation in field goal efficiency and rarely turns the ball over. That could spell trouble for Arkansas. The Razorbacks struggle in perimeter shooting which can put them at a disadvantage against the well-oiled offensive machine of the Catamounts. Vermont is underseeded in this tournament which comes at a cost for Arkansas.

Vegas Odds to Watch: No. 12 New Mexico State (+7) vs. No. 5 UConn

Always beware of the No. 12 upset over the No. 5. While I am not picking the outright upset, New Mexico State has the tools it needs to keep it at least close and cover the spread. Since mid-January, the Aggies haven’t lost a game by more than four points. They play terrific defense and are efficient on offense. UConn has the potential for a deep run, given their athleticism and NBA-level talent. However, the experience of the upperclassmen on the Aggies’ roster could prove disruptive. Take the points in a low-scoring affair.

Elite Eight Matchup Prediction: No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Texas Tech

There’s no question the Bulldogs have been the best team in the nation all season. They should have no issues reaching the Elite Eight, especially if they go up against No. 13 Vermont in the Sweet Sixteen, should the Catamounts pull off back-to-back upsets. On the other hand, the Red Raiders still deserve the title as the best defensive team in the nation after nearly winning the tournament in 2019. This should be a must-watch matchup.

Region Winner: No. 1 Gonzaga

Is this finally Gonzaga’s year? That will be the constant, beleaguering question until the Zags eventually win a championship. Well, they will at least earn another trip to the Final Four as long as they can survive their matchup with the Red Raiders’ elite defense. Should they pull off that feat, Gonzaga will be in prime position to reach the Finals and compete to be crowned champion.