It’s perhaps the most fun time of year for sports fans – March Madness! An entire month loaded with nonstop buzzer-beaters, upsets, and bracket busters. Sixty-eight teams enter the tournament with the same goal – to be the last team standing to hoist the championship trophy in the air when everything is all said and done.
Whether or not you are a diehard college basketball fan, a casual one, or simply want to participate in your office’s bracket pool, we have put together a list of the top 10 tips and strategies for filling out your bracket. Read below, and you could be on the way to cashing in yourself at the end of the tournament!
1. Do NOT have all four #1 seeds in your Final Four
In the tournament’s history, there has only been one occasion where all four #1 seeds managed to reach the Final Four – in 2008. Every year, the safe bet is to rely on the chalk and stock up on favorites when picking which teams to advance into the later rounds. While it may seem like a good strategy, that is not the case as there are always plenty of upsets between the First Round and the National Championship game. That’s not to say you should avoid picking #1 seeds to advance to the Final Four – just don’t scribble in all of them. Choose the one or two teams that you feel will have the easiest path or the best shot at dancing in the Finals – and don’t be surprised when a #1 seed gets knocked off before even reaching the Sweet 16.
2. Pick at least one #12 over #5
Over the years, one of the hot picks has been the #12 upset over the #5 seed. It may seem like a significant discrepancy between these two squads, but in actuality, the teams are not far off from each other talent-wise. Often, a #12 seed happens to be the champion from one of the mid-major or lesser-known conferences. These aren’t teams to take lightly, as evidenced by an overall 35.42 winning percentage for #12 seeds based on a 51-93 record. If you’re like me and tend to lean heavily on the upsets when filling out a bracket, pick at least one or more #12 seeds to pull off the outright win.
3. Take a gamble with a #13 or #14 team
While not as rare, #13 seeds have also experienced recent success in the tournament. Since the 1985 expansion, #13 seeds carry a 31-113 record against #4 seeds, equivalent to a 21.53 winning percentage. Last year, two #13 seeds secured the upset win – Ohio over defending champion Virginia and North Texas vs. Purdue. In fact, there has been at least one #13 seed declaring victory in the past 3 tournaments. Don’t be surprised if it happens again.
4. Take into account the Opening Round odds
Want an edge that most participants in your March Madness pool will overlook? If so, make sure to study the Vegas odds for the Opening Round of games before making your picks. Vegas always seems to have insight into the expected outcome of a game. So before you are confident that a #4 seed will easily defeat its #11 opponent, take a glance first at the money line and spread. If you see that the line is giving the better seed only a 2-point advantage, that could be an upset alert. Teams in this tournament are closer in talent than most people think, no matter the difference in seeding. Vegas may know something you don’t. It doesn’t hurt to check out the opening odds before filling out your bracket.
5. Don’t pick last season’s champion to repeat
Only 8 times has a team won back-to-back National Championships. The last team to do so was Florida, raising the banner in 2006 and 2007 under head coach Billy Donovan. Prior, there had not been a repeat winner since Duke captured the trophy in 1991 and 1992 behind Christian Laettner, who was named Most Outstanding Player in the tournament. Nowadays, many of the top programs feature stars who are one year and done at the collegiate level before moving on to the NBA. It is rare for a major team to return most of its roster the following season. Furthermore, the expansion to 68 teams has opened the field for more teams to compete in March. Even if the defending champion captures another #1 seed, it may be wise to select another team as your pick to win the Championship.
6. Pick one #1 seed to get knocked out before the Sweet 16
Sure, there has only been one occasion where a #16 seed has beaten a #1 seed, but that doesn’t mean the top seeds are a lock to make it out of the opening weekend unscathed. In recent years, it is not unusual that a #1 seed fails to make it out of the Round of 32. All it takes is for a young and hungry #8 or #9 seed to shock the country and knock off one of the top dogs. Don’t forget, #1 seeds have suffered losses throughout the season, just like every other team in the tournament. It may be a gamble to pick the upset, especially since it could destroy your bracket the rest of the tourney, but it can pay off in a big way in the end. Decide which #1 seed you feel is most vulnerable or overseeded. Then take a look at the potential Round of 32 matchups. Think there could be an upset? Then why not take a chance. After all, there has never been a perfect bracket.
7. Designate at least one double-digit seed to make it to the Elite 8
Last season, #12 Oregon State and #11 UCLA managed to defy odds and reach the Elite 8. Before that, #11 Loyola-Chicago did so in 2018, while #11 Xavier pulled off the same feat in 2017 as did #10 Syracuse in 2016. 2019 was the only season in recent years that a double-digit team did not make the Elite 8 (2020’s tournament was canceled due to CoVid-19). It may seem like a stretch, but more brackets get busted when you rely too heavily on favorites. Take a shot at the double-digit seeds. These squads are often better than their records indicate, especially if they experienced injuries over the season or had a rough start to the year. They may be getting hot at just the right time.
8. Pick a First Four team to make the Sweet 16
Since 2011, at least one of the First Four teams has advanced past the First Round since 2001. In fact, five teams have managed to secure a spot in the Sweet 16, with UCLA being the most recent team to do so last season (they went on to lose in the Final Four). Since its inception in 2011, selecting one of the First Four winners to defeat its opponent in the First Round has been trendy. Now, being so bold as to predict one of the winners will go a step further and make the Sweet 16 has become an even hotter pick. What’s the reasoning? These teams carry a little momentum and shake off some of the rust due to playing an extra game two days earlier. It may be time to ride their momentum into the Sweet 16.
9. Keep an eye on “home-court” advantage
When the bracket is finally released on Selection Sunday, all teams will be seeded in one of the four regions – Midwest, South, West, East. Each region will play each Round in a designated city within its geographical location. While these sites are technically neutral playing fields, several teams will end up benefiting based on how close in proximity their campus is to the host city. For example, let’s say Rutgers is seeded in the East region, and the first weekend of games will take place in NYC at Madison Square Garden. Given their campus is less than an hour away from the city, fans will have a much easier time traveling to cheer their team on. Rutgers will also have the advantage of not jumping on a plane to fly halfway across the country and different time zones. It may seem like an insignificant edge, but it could end up playing in their favor primarily if they draw a first-round matchup against a west coast squad. Keep an eye out for any home-court advantages.
10. Don’t listen to the “experts”
Forget ESPN, Yahoo! Sports, SI.com. These “experts” are no closer to submitting a perfect bracket than you. The beauty of college basketball is all 68 teams enter with just as good a chance to win the title as any other squad. All it takes is for a top team to play their worst game of the season and for a mediocre team to cash in their best performance. Go with your gut, and don’t listen to any of the talking heads on television or radio. Your bracket is probably better than theirs, after all.
