UFC 264 Prediction: Poirier vs McGregor 3

07 / 08 / 2021 By Ally Mielnicki

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This Saturday, UFC fans worldwide will be treated to the third installment of Dustin Poirier versus Conor “The Notorious” McGregor in UFC 264 from the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada. 

In their first head-to-head matchup in the featherweight division at UFC 178 in September 2014, the Notorious Irishman defeated Poirier via a first-round technical knockout. The two former champions wouldn’t meet again until this past January 2021 at UFC 257 in the lightweight division. However, this time, Poirier emerged victorious, knocking out McGregor in the second round.

So who will win what is likely the final bout between these two legendary fighters? Let’s break it down.

UFC 264: Odds & Analysis

Dustin Poirier (27-6-0, 1 NC) vs. Conor McGregor (22-5-0)


Poirier -120

McGregor +100

It’s no surprise that both fighters are currently evenly matched according to Vegas odds, with Poirier listed as the slight favorite given his victory against McGregor only 6 months ago. However, just because Poirier walked away as the victor in their last encounter via knockout doesn’t mean it will be the same result.

In a recent interview, the Notorious admitted he might have been overlooking the bout against Poirier. Instead, his mind was more focused on what would have been an upcoming boxing match against Manny Pacquiao that ended up not taking place.

Whether this was a diversion or not, McGregor is one of the most intimidating and dangerous fighters of all time. It would be a mistake to discount him in the Octagon. 

“I’m coming in to kill this man,” McGregor said to ESPN commentator Stephen A. Smith in the same video interview. “I’m coming in with vicious intent here. Mortar shots. What else can I say? That’s the way it is. I’m looking to take this man out cold.”

Nevertheless, Poirier is not one to be looked over again. With a 27-6 record, Poirier has defeated his opponent in 5 of his last 6 fights with 3 via TKO. Meanwhile, McGregor has lost 2 of his previous 3 bouts since taking a 2-year hiatus from the Octagon. That includes his loss to Poirier in January.

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UFC 264 Prediction: Poirier via TKO.

The final bout in this trilogy will inevitably end with the same result as the previous two matches – TKO. I don’t see this fight lasting more than 2 or 3 rounds as both fighters will be out to destroy the other, but in the end, I believe it will be Poirier who will walk away with his fist raised in the air victoriously. McGregor may have had 6 months to regroup and train, but Poirier seems to have the upper hand in this matchup. McGregor isn’t the same fighter he was in his prime when he was both UFC Featherweight and Lightweight champion. Poirier is riding a hot streak with his only loss in his past 6 fights to then-Lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. Expect Poirier to close the book on this epic trilogy with a win via TKO.

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