We are now two-thirds of the way into the regular, and it’s time to look at the updated Super Bowl odds. We’ve had quite a few surprise teams rise in the standings (Jets, Giants, Seahawks), while there have been other teams who have disappointed immensely (Packers, Colts, Rams).
Let’s get to the odds and picks (all odds courtesy of BetMGM).
Chiefs +400
Bills +450
Eagles +600
49ers +600
Cowboys +900
Dolphins +1200
Vikings +1800
Ravens +1800
Bengals +1800
Buccaneers +2000
Titans +3000
Chargers +3500
Seahawks +6600
Jets +6600
Commanders +10000
Patriots +10000
Giants +15000
Jaguars +15000
Browns +20000
Raiders +20000
Falcons +20000
Saints +30000
Lions +30000
Packers +30000
Panthers +50000
Colts +50000
Steelers +50000
Rams +50000
Cardinals +75000
Broncos +100000
Bears +100000
Texans +200000
Safe Bets
Chiefs +400
The Chiefs have flown under the radar this season but sit atop the AFC with the best record (9-2) in the conference. As of today, they are in line for a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes has established himself as the frontrunner for the MVP award and has proven he can win even without speedy WR Tyreek Hill, who remains one of the best wideouts in the game. Mahomes’ rapport with TE Travis Kelce is impeccable, and the two rank atop the league as the best duo. Mahomes has found a way to win with a receiving corps that includes JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore and has led the team to rank 1st in the league in points, passing yards, and total yards per game. Should the Chiefs reach the Super Bowl this season, it will mark the third time Kansas City has accomplished such a feat in four years. The way HC Andy Reid has this team rolling, it will be hard to stop the Chiefs, especially in Arrowhead Stadium.
Eagles +600
At 10-1, the Eagles have blown by their competition with their lone loss against the resurging Washington Commanders squad. Jalen Hurts has enjoyed a breakout season and is in the running for league MVP. The addition of WR A.J. Brown has sparked instant chemistry on the offense, and WR DeVonta Smith and RB Miles Sanders have contributed to rank 3rd in the league in points scored and 4th in total yards per game. The defense has been a force, allowing the second-least yards per game. If there is one criticism of the Eagles, it has been their strength of schedule. Besides a Week 2 defeat of the Minnesota Vikings and a Week 6 win against the Dallas Cowboys (who were without Dak Prescott), Philly has had the benefit of playing a relatively easy schedule. Still, this team should not be taken lately. With the potential of securing home-field advantage in the playoffs, it will be much harder for some warm-weather teams to take the field in Philly in the winter.
49ers +600
I could have added the Bills here, but the Niners will have a much easier road to the Super Bowl, given the discrepancy between elite teams in the NFC versus the AFC. In the NFC, the Niners can square off against either the Commanders, Seahawks, or Giants in the Wild Card Round. A potential Divisional Round matchup against the Cowboys (who they defeated on the road last season) or the Bucs (who currently sit with a sub .500 record). After adding RB Christian McCaffrey, this team has solidified its offense into an all-around threat. Jimmy Garoppolo has put together some of the best games of his career in the past few weeks, and between Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, there is no shortage of offensive weapons. Let’s not forget the defense that ranks No. 1 in the league in the least amount of yards and points allowed per game. San Francisco will be dangerous come the playoffs.
Best Value Bets
Bengals +1800
Cincinnati is getting hot at just the right time. This is the same Bengals squad that sent shockwaves through the NFL last postseason by knocking off the No. 1-seeded Titans before staging an epic comeback against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. The Bengals were only one quarter away from winning the franchise’s first Super Bowl but eventually lost to the champion Rams. With an improved offensive line and a solid defense, this Bengals team is more potent than last season, and they have been winning without top WR Ja’Marr Chase, who has been sidelined with an injury. Joe Burrow has ice running through his veins. He is not fazed by any competition standing in his way.
Buccaneers +2000
Can Tom Brady turn around the Bucs 5-6 season and make another Super Bowl run? Stranger things have happened, and by all indications, Tampa Bay should win the NFC South despite finishing the year with a sub.500 record. That will guarantee a home-field advantage in the Wild Card round. Should the Bucs get hot, they have a similar roster to the one that won Super Bowl 55. On offense, Brady has his weapons with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Julio Jones, combined with the emergence of rookie RB Rashaad White and Leonard Fournette. And despite the offensive struggles, the defense has maintained its dominance, ranking 7th overall in the least amount of points scored per game and yards per game. Brady magic can happen again.
Jets +6600
Can Mike White lead the Jets to a Super Bowl? If the second-year QB continues his tremendous play, then he could be the missing piece New York needs to be a disruptor this postseason. The Jets already feature one of the best defenses in the game, and their wide receiving corps of Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and Corey Davis can blow by defenses. Head Coach Robert Saleh has Super Bowl experience, having been to Super Bowl 54 with the 49ers. His defensive mind can shut down even the most potent offenses in the league.
