NFL Week 5: Best Bets ATS

10 / 08 / 2021 By Ally Mielnicki

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Another 4-1 week with my Best Bets last weekend! Overall, in my pools, I had quite the record, nailing 13 picks ATS. It was a nice payout for me come Tuesday.

With no further ado, let’s get straight to the picks for this week – hopefully you win some money as well!

Dolphins (+10.5) over Buccaneers

Save for a late turnover that resulted in a TD in Week 2 against the Falcons, and the Buccaneers could easily be 0-4 ATS this year, failing to cover against the Cowboys, Rams, and Patriots. Add to the fact that if Nick Folk connected on a 52-yard field goal with less than a minute remaining on Sunday night, then the Buccaneers could be sporting an overall 2-2 record heading into this contest. 

Miami may be winless since their Week 1 defeat of the Patriots, but they have the weapons needed to stay competitive against Tampa Bay. Backup QB Jacoby Brissett had shown he could lead this squad down the field and score when needed, as evidenced when he led the Dolphins to a last-second TD to send the game into OT against the Raiders in Week 3.

Miami may not rack up enough offensive points to win, but they should keep the game close in Tampa. The public will be itching to back Tom Brady against a disappointing Dolphins squad, but a double-digit spread is way too many points to lay. Take Miami to cover.

Patriots (-9) over Texans

Laying two scores on the road for a team with a 1-3 record may seem like the wrong move, but the Patriots have played much better than their record indicates. If not for a costly fumble late in the 4th against Miami and a missed field goal in the rain against Tampa Bay, New England could effortlessly be sporting a 3-1 record instead.

Since losing Tyrod Taylor to injury, the Texans have been dismal behind rookie QB Davis Mills. Houston suffered a 40-0 pounding against Buffalo last week, with Mills coughing up 4 interceptions and finishing the day with an embarrassing 0.8 QBR. Now, the Texans must host the Patriots led by head coach Bill Belichick who is known to own opposing rookie QBs over the years. This could be another long afternoon for Houston. Lay the points. 

Bengals +3 over Packers

Ever since their opening weekend shellacking in Jacksonville against the Saints, the Packers have roared back, going 3-0 against the Lions, 49ers, and Steelers – covering in all 3 games. However, don’t overlook the 3-1 Bengals. Joe Burrow has impressively bounced back from last year’s season-ending injury and has shown why he was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. The combination of Burrow to rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase has been lethal through the first 4 games of the season. It should continue against a Packers secondary that just lost CB Jaire Alexander to injury. 

Though Green Bay has perhaps the most lethal tandem between Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams on their offensive end, the Bengals should still be able to put points up on the board and hang in with the Packers until the end. The public has been pounding Green Bay as a road favorite, and I love going against casual bettors, especially when the amount of bets is this one-sided. Take Cincinnati to cover.

49ers +5.5 over Cardinals

Jimmy Garoppolo has yet to practice this week since suffering an injury that forced him out of last week’s contest against the Seahawks, but reports are indicating he may suit up and play on Sunday. If he cannot go, rookie Trey Lance will make his first career start for the Niners.

The Cardinals have yet to lose a game this season, being the only undefeated team left in the NFL. This season, they have been impressive, securing wins on the road against the Rams, Titans, and Jaguars. Kyler Murray is having an MVP-type year and has been explosive on offense. 

All signs should indicate that the Cardinals should have no issues containing the Niners this weekend. However, if there was ever a trap game for Arizona, this is the one. I love betting against teams coming off what they consider their “Super Bowl” win, and last week’s victory over the Rams was just that. Arizona may still be able to take advantage of the Niners and their injury woes, but San Fran should be able to keep the score within a touchdown. Take the points.

Chiefs -3 over Bills

Since being upset by the Steelers in Week 1, the Bills have blown past their competition, breezing by the Dolphins, Redskins, and Texans. However, they have yet to face an offense as potent as the Chiefs when they host Kansas City on Sunday Night football this weekend in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game. 

The Chiefs, on the other hand, have not had the start they expected for this season. They were forced to come from behind to beat the Browns in Week 1, then suffered back-to-back losses to the Ravens and Chargers. They finally managed to right the ship last weekend, defeating the Eagles 42-30.

The public has already decided it is backing the home underdogs for this matchup. However, Buffalo has yet to be challenged by a legitimate playoff contender, while the Chiefs had one of the toughest schedules to start the new season. Expect Patrick Mahomes and co. to get the offensive fire going early and put Josh Allen and the Bills in a hole. Lay the points with the road favorite.

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