NFL Week 4 2022 – Top 5 Picks ATS

09 / 30 / 2022 By Ally Mielnicki

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Last week, I finished with an 11-5 record ATS and 3-2 in my best bets, bringing my season total to 7-8.

Let’s keep up the winning.

Niners -1.5 over Rams

I am still looking for someone to agree that the 49ers will handily defeat the Rams on Monday night. The Rams are not the same team that won the Super Bowl in February. Their offense has taken a hit after losing Odell Beckham Jr., and their defense has suffered since Von Miller departed via free agency. 

The 49ers are currently dealing with critical injuries, notably to top LT Trent Williams, who will miss several weeks after sustaining a high ankle sprain. However, this is a different team with Jimmy Garoppolo back under center, which is more equipped to handle pressure. Expect the 49ers to get rid of the ball quickly and utilize the versatile Deebo Samuel in the offense.

The 49ers have also owned the Rams as of late. In their last five meetings, the Rams are 0-5 ATS against San Francisco and 1-6 straight up. The 49ers’ defense should be able to shut down Matt Stafford, who still has trouble spreading the ball to receivers other than Cooper Kupp. This will be a low-scoring affair and a victory for the 49ers.

Patriots +9 over Packers

This is another case where the public is heavily backing the favorite. That means I love going against the popular consensus. It’s been a rough start for the Patriots this season as QB Mac Jones has seemed to regress after his impressive rookie campaign. However, Jones suffered an injury last weekend against the Ravens, which means Brian Hoyer will make the start instead. It’s no wonder why the public is siding with the Packers.

Even though the Patriots have struggled to generate offense this season behind Mac Jones, the Packers have as well. Aaron Rodgers has yet to find a reliable replacement for Davante Adams, and the offense has failed to score more than 14 points only once.

While I expect the Packers to win, the spread is too high. No one coaches better when the odds are stacked against him than Bill Belichick, and you can bet he will devise a game plan to focus on the run game and own the time of possession. Even if the Packers take a multi-score lead, there is always the chance for the backdoor cover. Take the points.

Broncos +2.5 over Raiders

The Raiders have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL. Winless through three games, this team entered the season with lofty expectations. After all, Vegas scored in the offseason, acquiring Davante Adams from the Packers and hiring Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as head coach.

The Broncos, too, have failed to live up to their hype. This team believed it was one QB away from making a Super Bowl run, which is why they went out and traded for Russell Wilson in the offseason. So far, the offense seems to have the same anemic struggles. Wilson has often looked uncomfortable and indifferent, leading to boos from the home crowd. WR Jerry Jeudy has yet to register an impactful game, and RBs Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon’s highlights came from both fumbling in the endzone in Week 1.

Even though the Broncos have been less than stellar on offense, their defense has still lived up to its shutdown reputation, which is why I’m backing the Broncos to cover and pull off the upset. They should be able to rattle Derek Carr and cause multiple turnovers, allowing Wilson to capitalize. Sorry Raiders fans, Broncos got this one.

Eagles -6.5 over Jaguars

The Eagles have established themselves as the best team in the NFC. Jalen Hurts is playing at an MVP-caliber level, and A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are arguably the best tandem in the NFL. Once known to be strictly a run-first team, the Eagles are now dangerous through the air and can score at will.

The Jaguars have been impressive as well this season. With a 2-1 record, Doug Pederson has coached this team to one of the year’s surprises. However, those two wins came against a depleted Colts squad that was missing several key players and a Chargers team that suffered significant injuries to Rashawn Slater and Joey Bosa early in the contest.

While many are picking the Jaguars to upset the Eagles, given that Pederson will want some revenge on his former team, I’m going the opposite way. The Jaguars have yet to face a team as complete and well-rounded as the Eagles, and Philadelphia will likely build an early lead and not look back. The Eagles win and cover.

Falcons +1 over Browns

The Falcons have been an energetic team this season. Nearly upsetting the Saints and Rams, Atlanta finally secured their first win of the year against the Seahawks last Sunday. Marcus Mariota is playing much better than expected, and rookie WR Drake London has shown flashes of the star he will eventually become.

The Browns, right now, are treading water until the return of Deshaun Watson. Fortunately, they have accumulated a 2-1 record without him under center and will look to extend their win total on Sunday. However, there is a good chance they will be without top DE Myles Garrett, who was in a car crash earlier this week. The defense will take a massive hit if Garrett does not suit up.

I’m on the Falcons to win whether or not Garrett plays. Atlanta can score the ball, and the Browns’ offense may have a tough time keeping up. Give me the Falcons.


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