NFL Week 18 – Top 5 Picks ATS

01 / 06 / 2023 By Ally Mielnicki

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Our best bets column had its first losing week last weekend in a long time at 2-3 ATS. That brings our overall record to 45-29-1. Let’s end the season on a high note.

Raiders +9.5 over Chiefs

Jarrett Stidham gave the Raiders a much-needed jolt last weekend against the 49ers. Against the best defense in the NFL, Stidham accounted for three TDs, two interceptions, and 365 passing yards in a contest Vegas eventually lost in OT. Now, Stidham will get the opportunity to go up against one of the best teams in the league once again this Saturday against the Chiefs. However, the task may not be as daunting as the Chiefs’ defense that ranks in the middle of the pack against the passing game. With a win, the Chiefs will wrap up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and earn a coveted bye. Still, while Kansas City may be able to pull out the win, the spread is way too high. The Chiefs aren’t a team that usually blows out its opponent albeit a division rival, who is desperate to end their season on a high note. Give me the Raiders to cover.

Rams +6.5 over Seahawks

Can the Rams upset the Seahawks and end their playoff hopes? Not only do I love the Rams to cover this high spread, but I think they can win outright. Seattle has been free-falling since they took on the Bucs in Germany and their own two wins since came against the struggling Jets and the Rams back when John Wolford was starting. Since then, the Rams have developed some life in the past few weeks, defeating the Raiders in a come-from-behind win and blowing out the Broncos on Christmas. Even though there is not much for LA to play for, QB Baker Mayfield is still auditioning to be a starting QB next year and many other secondary players are aiming to prove they can be effective contributors in this league. The Seahawks are overrated with many of their early season wins coming against opponents who were missing multiple starters (see Chargers, Giants). Sean McVay will have his team playing to win. Rams win and cover.

Panthers +3.5 over Saints

The Panthers and Saints are both eliminated from reaching the playoffs, so this is a game of pride. However, if there is one motivational factor between the two teams, that goes in favor of the Panthers. Since firing Matt Rhule and trading away star RB Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers roared back into playoff contention and would have been sitting atop the NFC South had they not blown a double-digit lead to the Buccaneers last Sunday. During that stretch, interim head coach Steve Wilks has impressed the fans and inspired many of his players. There is mutual respect in the clubhouse and you can bet his team will rally for their coach to secure him a contract for the next few seasons to come. Panthers win and cover. 

Vikings -8 over Bears

No Justin Fields in this matchup, so you can expect the Vikings to bring the pressure to backup QB Nathan Peterman, who is most famous for throwing five interceptions in the first half of his first career start. After getting embarrassed by the Packers last weekend, Kevin O’Connell will want his team to enter the postseason on a high note. There is also an outside chance that Minnesota can move up to the No. 2 seed if the 49ers lose, so the Vikings have something to play for. The Bear, on the other hand, may want to lose to secure a top pick in the NFL Draft. Vikings win and cover.

49ers -14 over Cardinals

I usually never lay double-digits between division foes, but I honestly don’t see how the Cardinals will be able to score in this contest. If the Eagles lose, the 49ers can claim the No. 1 seed and earn a bye in the NFC. You can bet Kyle Shannahan will have his team prime and ready to execute in this matchup. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, their miserable season may not end on a high note and this could be the last game for head coach Kliff Kingsbury on the Arizona sideline. 49ers win easily and cover.

 

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