NFL Week 11 – Top 5 Picks ATS

11 / 18 / 2022 By Ally Mielnicki

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We had a great 4-1 record with our best bets last weekend. We only missed the Browns getting trounced by the Dolphins. Our overall best bets record is now 29-21. Let’s get to the picks.

Steelers +4 over Bengals

I believe in the Steelers, so I am backing them for the second consecutive week. The last time these two teams met, the Steelers shocked the Bengals by defeating them in OT on opening weekend. Now, the Steelers are fortunate to counter the Bengals while still missing top wideout Ja’Marr Chase. Even though Joe Burrow will have Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd at his disposal, he may not have enough time to throw to them since T.J. Watt returned to the field last week for Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ defense is an entirely different unit when Watt plays, and he will most likely cause havoc on the Bengals’ disappointing offensive line. I think, however, the Bengals will edge out a win here, but the Steelers will cover. 

Cowboys -1.5 over Vikings

The other day, I talked in my podcast about how this is my favorite pick of the week. Everyone is hopping on the Vikings’ bandwagon after their upset against the Bills. However, I love the Cowboys in this spot. Not only do we get great value after Dallas lost in OT to the Packers, thanks to a poor coaching decision by Mike McCarthy, but the Vikings’ line is inflated due to their victory. I also love backing teams coming off their “Super Bowl” wins, and I expect the Vikings to fall flat in this affair. Remember, the last time the Vikings faced a potent secondary was in Week 2 against the Eagles. Kirk Cousins threw three interceptions in that contest – all when targeting Justin Jefferson, who was guarded by Darius Slay. Now, Jefferson will be going up against Trevon Diggs, who is one year removed from leading the league in interceptions. 

Dak Prescott will be able to carve up the Vikings’ weak secondary, and Tony Pollard will expose their subpar run defense in this contest. I don’t expect this game to be close. The Cowboys win handily. 

Rams +3 over Saints

Even though Cooper Kupp is likely out for the next several weeks, I still like the Rams to cover and win outright. Matt Stafford is expected to return on Sunday and still has plenty of weapons to use in his receiving corps. Offseason signee Allen Robinson has yet to make an impact with the team this season, but that should change on Sunday as he steps into the No. 1 receiver role. Don’t forget, Robinson served as the Chicago Bears’ primary wideout for years and is no stranger to handling a heavier workload. TE Tyler Higbee also should be a factor in Kupp’s absence and spread out the field for Stafford.

The Saints, meanwhile, have been in disarray all season. Head coach Dennis Allen is in way over his head, which has shown in the Saints’ dismal 3-7 record. With back-to-back losses against the Ravens and Steelers, the Saints’ season is all but finished, and you can bet they will be in the market for a new QB in the offseason, given that neither Jameis Winston nor Andy Dalton has been effective when starting. The Rams’ defense should be able to generate loads of pressure on Dalton and force him to turn the ball over – which he has done frequently this season. Expect a low-scoring game, but the Rams will emerge victorious.

Eagles -7 over Colts

This is the best value we will get this season with the Eagles. The advanced spread on this game was Eagles -10, but with Indy’s win over the lowly Raiders and Philly’s Monday night loss to the Commanders, the line dropped to -7.

There’s no question the Eagles are the far superior team in this matchup, even without Dallas Goedert, who will miss time with an injury. The Colts right now are riding high after upsetting the Raiders in Vegas and rejuvenated by the addition of interim head coach Jeff Saturday. However, there is a vast difference between the Raiders and the Eagles. Philly remains the best team in the NFC until proven otherwise. Expect Jalen Hurts to rebound from a mediocre performance against the Commanders and find A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith for multiple scores. Matt Ryan had an impressive game last weekend, but the Raiders’ secondary is not nearly as lethal as the combination of James Bradberry and Darius Slay. The Eagles win and cover easily.

Chargers +5 over Chiefs

The Chargers have been banged up the past few weekends, but they are getting healthier. WR Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both listed as questionable heading into Week 11, and there is a good chance at least one, if not both, will suit up for the Chargers. Nevertheless, LA should be able to exploit the Chiefs’ weak run defense. Two weeks ago, Derrick Henry carved up the Chiefs’ defense, and Austin Ekeler should be able to mirror his performance this weekend. I won’t go so far as to predict an upset, although it is possible. I will, however, gladly take the points with the home underdog in this divisional matchup. Expect a high-scoring affair since both teams’ defenses allow many points, but the Chargers should hang in there to cover. 

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