NFL Top Free Agent QB Predictions

02 / 16 / 2023 By Ally Mielnicki

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I could write an entire article predicting where every free agent QB will land this offseason, but I narrowed it down to the top 7. Let’s get to the predictions.


Lamar Jackson – Washington Commanders

Theoretically, if a healthy Lamar Jackson were to suit up for the Washington Commanders on Week 1 of the 2023-2024 season, you can argue he would be the best QB in the NFC. Why not jump ship and leave the AFC to Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert? If Jackson were to join the Commanders, he would be aligned with head coach Ron Rivera who coached Cam Newton to a MVP season in 2015. He also will take center with an impressive receiving corps of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel, not to mention a dynamic running game behind Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. After years of searching for a franchise QB, this could be Washington’s match.

Jimmy Garoppolo – Baltimore Ravens

I know this may seem far-fetched but think about it. Not only would Jimmy G fall under the guidance of a Super Bowl winning coach in John Harbaugh, but his “new” team would have the same makeup as his old. A top tier defense, an offense predicated around the run, one of the league’s best tight ends, and solid, young wide receivers. If you look at Jimmy’s other options such as the Raiders and the Jets, both have unproven head coaches that lack a history of succeeding with their starting QB. Sure Josh McDaniels had Tom Brady at the helm while he was offensive coordinator of the Patriots. However, in his first tenure as head coach, he failed to generate production from Jay Cutler while Derek Carr regressed in his first season under McDaniels. On the Jets’ end, Jimmy G may be familiar with Saleh’s coaching from his days as defensive coordinator of the 49ers, but that may not translate to QB success as evident with the Zach Wilson and Mike White experiment. It’s not being talked about anywhere else, but you heard it here first.

Derek Carr – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When Tom Brady announced his second (and final) retirement, the Bucs were left without a starting QB to defend their NFC South title. While there remains the option to blow up the team, the roster still features Pro Bowl caliber players in WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as well as RB Leonard Fournette. The Bucs also feature one of the better offensive lines in the game and possess an above average defense. Let’s not forget the Bucs also play in the worst division in the NFC, clinching the title with a sub .500 record. This would be a great opportunity for Carr to revitalize his career with a playoff-ready team that is two seasons removed from a Super Bowl victory.

Geno Smith – Las Vegas Raiders

This is the last big contract Geno Smith most likely will receive in his career, so he is going to want money and years guaranteed. The Raiders are going to be a team searching for a short to long-term starter. If they miss out on acquiring Aaron Rodgers or signing Jimmy Garoppolo, there is a good chance they will take a chance with Smith who just ended a career-revitalizing year. Though head coach Josh McDaniels does not own a great track with QBs in his two head coaching tenures, he will always be tied to Tom Brady and the success he had with the GOAT. That may be enough to appeal to Smith along with the opportunity to be partnered with one of the top WRs in the game in Davante Adams.

Baker Mayfield – Indianapolis Colts

Baker’s stock is at an all-time low, so he will be looking for an opportunity where he can turn the idea of being a bridge starter into the possibility of a full-time starter. Enter Indy who most likely will be trading up in the draft to take Alabama QB Bryce Young at No. 1. A one-year deal will be perfect for Mayfield as he will have the chance to work with former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen who worked wonders with Jalen Hurts. And with the AFC South currently serving as the worst division in the conference, this could be a bonus for Mayfield if he can lead the Colts into division title contention.

Carson Wentz – New York Jets

Can Carson Wentz receive any more opportunities to reestablish himself in this league? When the Jets continue to have their own QB issues, then this is the chance for him. With no intention of starting failed former No. 2 draft pick Zach Wilson next season, Wentz could capitalize on this opportunity to start for a team with talented young receivers and a top 5 defense. He will come cheap as well, so if the Jets miss out on Garoppolo or Aaron Rodgers, they could fall back on Wentz.

Daniel Jones – New York Giants

I saved the best for last! Danny Dimes will be a Giant next season. Rather than receive the franchise tag, GM Joe Schoen will sign him to a short-term contract for 3 seasons. It will be a bargain if he continues his ascent in this league.

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