NFL Thanksgiving 2022 – Best Bets ATS

11 / 23 / 2022 By Ally Mielnicki

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Bills -9.5 over Lions

The Lions’ hot run comes to an end here. It is one thing to put up points against subpar defenses like the Packers, Bears, and Giants. However, the last time the Lions took on a top-ranked defense, they were blown out by the Cowboys 24-6. Now, Detroit must take on a hungry Bills squad who just snapped a two-game losing streak by defeating Cleveland last weekend. Fortunately for the Bills, heavy snow caused the game to be moved to Motor City last week, so they have the benefit of not having to travel. Josh Allen appeared to be back in form against the Browns and should have no issues against a Lions’ defense that ranks near the bottom of the league. Detroit has a history of underperforming on Thanksgiving, and this should be no different. It is a high number, but the Bills will win and cover by double-digits.

Giants +9.5 over Cowboys

I’ll put my bias aside here and not pick my team to win outright, but they will cover. In a short week, these two division rivals should battle and keep this one low-scoring and close. Even though the Giants will be without several starters both on offense and defense, expect New York to rely on the legs of Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones to generate long-standing drives and keep the clock ticking. Dak Prescott won’t have the same success through the air as he did, taking advantage of the Vikings’ secondary last weekend as the Giants do well against the pass. Tony Pollard figures to have another explosive game on the ground since the Giants’ defense ranks 25th overall. Still, they should do a decent job limiting CeeDee Lamb and the rest of the Dallas receivers. I’d love to see an upset, but I’ll gladly take the points with the G-Men.

Patriots +3 over Vikings

The Vikings were exposed on Sunday, getting blown out 40-3 by the Cowboys. It was an extreme disappointment following their upset of the Bills the weekend prior. Still, I don’t see Minnesota bouncing back in this contest. For one, Kirk Cousins has a terrible track record when playing in primetime with 16 losses – more than any other quarterback. Second, New England guards well against the pass and rush, ranking 4th and 12th in the league, respectively. This is an excellent matchup for the Patriots, who are looking to solidify their spot as a Wild Card team. Look for Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris to dominate the running game and take advantage of a below-average Minnesota defense. The Patriots win this one outright. 

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